How does it feel to be witnessing history? Pretty great if you’re a Buffalo Bills fan.
Bills superstar quarterback Josh Allen is putting summer-solstice levels of daylight between himself and the rest of the field in the odds for regular-season MVP. The question isn’t so much “Will he win it?” but rather, “By how much will he win it?”
Allen’s odds to win AP NFL regular-season MVP slipped below even last week to -250 after his electrifying Week 13 performance. Now he’s widened the gap further and sits at -450 on BetMGM. In an increasingly distant second place, the Philadelphia Eagles’ star running back Saquon Barkley is posting +400 odds to win it, which would make him just the 19th non-quarterback to clinch the prize.
In the distance comes the line of other favorites: Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff (+1300), reigning MVP and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+1400), Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+4000), and Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold (+6600).
The others are massive long shots, with Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Washington Commanders rookie sensation Jayden Daniels at +10000.
Is there a spot for betting value in this race? Spoiler alert: Probably not. Allen seems to have this thing in the bag. So, what’s the interest in MVP odds? Well, risers and fallers tell an in-one-glance story of how the season has progressed for these stars at the top of the league.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
NFL regular-season MVP odds
Allen’s odds improved after Week 14, despite the Buffalo Bills losing 44-42 to the Los Angeles Rams in one of the year’s best games.
In Week 13, fresh off the heels of proposing to actress and singer Hailee Steinfeld, Allen had a once-in-a-lifetime performance, becoming the first quarterback in league history to record a passing, rushing and receiving score in the same game. He followed that up with more history in Week 14, achieving the best fantasy football QB performance ever. That’s right, EVER. To find the second-best performance behind Allen’s 51.88 fantasy points, you have to go back over six decades.
Allen went 22-of-37 for 342 yards and three touchdowns and led the rushing attack with 82 yards and, yes, three more visits to the end zone. More history for you: Allen became the first player in league history to tally three scores each through the air and on the ground in the same game.
Who is getting the most action?
With Allen posting as such a strong favorite, he has the highest percentage of the betting handle (total amount wagered) at BetMGM, with 18.1 of the total handle going to the Bills QB. But more actual bets have been placed on Jared Goff, with 11.8 percent of the ticket number going to the Lions QB. The biggest liability for BetMGM is Barkley.
The Athletic’s Week 15 QB rankings have Allen at the top, followed by Jackson, Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Goff.
Run it back: Biggest risers and fallers so far
Opening odds had Mahomes as the favorite at +600, trailed by Allen (+800), Burrow (+900), C.J. Stroud (+1100) and Jackson (+1200).
The darkest timeline? Dak Prescott opened in seventh place at +1400 before sealing a contract extension that made him the highest-paid player in NFL history. He is now off the board for the season after playing eight games.
Since last week, a few other players have seen their odds change significantly. Mahomes went from +1600 entering Week 14 to +4000 after going 24-of-37 for 210 yards and one passing touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers QB Justin Herbert dropped from +8000 to +25000 after that game (21-of-30 for 213 yards and one passing touchdown).
The only players who saw their odds shorten were Allen, of course — and Darnold. Darnold’s odds journey, like his season, has been one of overcoming the doubters. He opened at +20000 (200-to-1) odds. Entering Week 14, those odds had halved to +10000 (100-to-1). Now he’s at +6600 (66-to-1). He’s still not at all likely to win, but what a lovely narrative arc those odds hold.
(Photo of Josh Allen: Harry How / Getty Images)
