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NFL playoff picture, Week 14: Bucs reclaim NFC South lead; Eagles clinch playoff berth

9 December 2024Last Update :
NFL playoff picture, Week 14: Bucs reclaim NFC South lead; Eagles clinch playoff berth

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFC South for the first time in 10 weeks. Mayfield tossed three touchdowns en route to knocking off the Las Vegas Raiders 28-13 on Sunday, putting the Bucs back in control of their playoff destiny.

Tampa will enter Week 15 at 7-6 while the Atlanta Falcons — losers of four straight, including Sunday’s 42-21 shellacking against the Minnesota Vikings — have dropped to 6-7. Having lost to the Falcons twice this season, the Bucs need to win the division outright and avoid tiebreakers, and right now, they are positioned to do just that.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles survived a scare Sunday from the Carolina Panthers, hanging on to win 22-16 and clinching a playoff spot in the process. They joined the Detroit Lions as the only NFC teams to lock up postseason berths so far this season.

As for the rest of the NFL, here’s where things stand in the playoff picture, with only the Monday Night Football matchup (Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys) to go in Week 14.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. 

AFC playoff picture
Seed Team Record Week 14 result
z–1
Chiefs
12-1
W vs. LAC
z–2
Bills
10-3
L vs. LAR
3
Steelers
10-3
W vs. CLE
4
Texans
8-5
Bye
5
Ravens
8-5
Bye
6
Chargers
8-5
L vs. KC
7
Broncos
8-5
Bye

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

Kansas City Chiefs

Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Broncos

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 76.3% | To win Super Bowl: 18.9%

Every team on the planet would sign up for the Chiefs’ so-called flaws. No, they aren’t the explosive team that had been on display in past seasons, but they just won their ninth straight AFC West title and have a two-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with four games to play. They should be heavy favorites in three of those games, so the conference will run through Arrowhead yet again.

Buffalo Bills

Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 19.4% | To win Super Bowl: 12.5%

The Bills’ defensive meltdown against the Rams took some of the shine off the upcoming showdown with the Lions, but there’s a bigger issue at stake. They allowed receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to combine for 270 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, so the Lions will be looking to exploit those coverage deficiencies. And if they do? The floodgates may be open for the Bills’ chief competition in the playoffs, as well-run offenses will understand how to attack a team that hadn’t looked vulnerable for quite a while.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 4.2% | To win Super Bowl: 4.2%

The Steelers need every bit of their two-game advantage over the Ravens because they’ve got the third hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league (and the hardest among teams in the playoff field). With so much attention on AFC powers like the Chiefs and Bills, the Steelers have an opportunity to show how they stack up over the final month.

Houston Texans

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 97.2% | To earn bye: 0.1% | To win Super Bowl: 4.7%

The Texans have a two-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts, so they’re still in good shape after leaking oil with four losses in their past seven games. But with a tough schedule down the stretch, the Texans better have put their bye week to good use.

Baltimore Ravens

Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Odds: To make playoffs: 95.1% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.7%

Lamar Jackson is trying to become the seventh player to win his third MVP award, but he’s got bigger goals in mind. He’s one of 10 multi-MVP winners in the Super Bowl era who has never hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. For what it’s worth, Jackson is 1-2 in the playoffs when he’s won the MVP and 1-2 in non-MVP seasons.

Los Angeles Chargers

Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Odds: To make playoffs: 89.2%| To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.9%

The Chargers are changing the narrative this season, but they aren’t all the way over the hump yet. They were swept by the Chiefs for the third consecutive season, and they’re 1-4 against teams in the playoff field. The win came against the Broncos, who are 1-5 against current playoff teams.

Denver Broncos

Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

Odds: To make playoffs: 77.5% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.4%

The Broncos have averaged 36 points per outing in their last three games, but their opponents over that stretch are ranked in the bottom third in the league in points allowed. Credit the Broncos for taking advantage of a weak schedule, but their postseason viability will be questionable.

In the hunt

• Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
• Miami Dolphins (6-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

Eliminated

• Cleveland Browns (3-10)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
• New York Jets (3-10)
• New England Patriots (3-10)
• Tennessee Titans (3-10)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

NFC playoff picture
Seed Team Record Week 14 result
x--1
Lions
12-1
W vs. GB
x--2
Eagles
11-2
W vs. CAR
3
Seahawks
8-5
W vs. AZ
4
Buccaneers
7-6
W vs. LV
5
Vikings
11-2
W vs. ATL
6
Packers
9-4
L vs. DET
7
Commanders
8-5
Bye

x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed

Detroit Lions

Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 59.8% | To win Super Bowl: 17.4%

With the best record in the league, the Lions have gotten accustomed to winning in just about every situation. But with back-to-back three-point wins, they’re now 4-0 in games decided by three points or less. They’re the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL, and they don’t get rattled in tense situations.

Philadelphia Eagles

Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 33.2% | To win Super Bowl: 13%

Saquon Barkley has a legitimate case for MVP, but the Eagles’ schedule might actually work against him because they don’t have another prime-time game, which is usually a helpful showcase for the prestigious award.

Seattle Seahawks

Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 60.4% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2%

The Seahawks’ four-game winning streak is their longest since 2022, when they last made the playoffs, so they’ve rebounded nicely after dropping five of six. But even with the cushion in the NFC West, they’ve got a lot of work to do with a challenging remaining schedule. They’ve now got the Packers on Sunday night, and surely, nothing weird ever happens when these two teams meet under the lights.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

Odds: To make playoffs: 67.3% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.1%

The Bucs shook off a four-game losing streak with three consecutive wins while the Falcons have dealt with their own four-game slide. The Bucs have a huge game this week against the Chargers before taking on three opponents with losing records, so they’ve got a shot to close the regular season on a seven-game winning streak.

Minnesota Vikings

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.9% | To earn bye: 7% | To win Super Bowl: 5.4%

Justin Jefferson just caught his first touchdown pass since Week 7. No matter, as the Vikings were 5-1 during that scoring drought, keeping that Week 18 visit to Detroit as a potential prime-time blockbuster. That outcome could be the difference between the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye or a playoff opener in Seattle or Tampa.

Green Bay Packers

Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 94.6% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.8%

The Packers are a legitimate threat, as they showed during a tight loss to the Lions, but there are a couple of concerns. They’re 5-3 in one-possession games, with those three losses coming by a combined 10 points, so they’re a little better than a coin flip in tight contests. And they’re 1-4 against teams in the playoff picture, with the lone win coming at home against the Texans in Week 7. Those are tough trends to break for a team that will open the postseason on the road.

Washington Commanders

Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

Odds: To make playoffs: 76.9% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.7%

The Commanders are clinging to the final wild-card spot, and they’ve got a massive game in two weeks against the Eagles, who are projected to be their playoff opponent. The Commanders are 0-4 against teams against teams that are currently in the postseason picture, including a Week 11 loss in Philadelphia.

In the hunt

• Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
• Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
• Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
• Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
• New Orleans Saints (5-8)
• Chicago Bears (4-9)
• Carolina Panthers (3-10)

Eliminated

• New York Giants (2-11)

(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)

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