NFL QB stock report, Week 13: Can Daniel Jones become next Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold?

26 November 2024Last Update :
NFL QB stock report, Week 13: Can Daniel Jones become next Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold?

You won’t see Daniel Jones in these rankings, but his situation is simply too fascinating to look past just because he doesn’t currently have a team.

Speaking of which, Jones needs to prioritize his long-term goals when choosing his next destination.

The former New York Giants quarterback, who cleared waivers Monday, should use Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold as examples while making his decision. Though both were on the brink of extended stretches on the backup circuit, they joined teams with QB-friendly systems, competed for their jobs and revived their careers.

And they’ve seen the other side, too. The pair of 2018 first-round picks fizzled with their original teams before they were granted permission to find new homes via trades, and they both — Darnold in 2021 and Mayfield in 2022 — wound up with the Carolina Panthers. They both also lost their starting gigs by midseason.

The lesson, of course, is that not all starting opportunities are created equal. Those Panthers setups, with the systems and personnel in place, were not conducive to success, certainly not for quarterbacks who needed to rebuild confidence.

The Athletic’s Week 13 QB rankings
Rk. QB Last wk. Szn. high szn. low
1
Lamar Jackson
1
1
4
2
Josh Allen
2
1
4
3
Patrick Mahomes
3
1
3
4
Joe Burrow
4
3
6
5
Jared Goff
5
5
16
6
Jordan Love
7
6
12
7
Baker Mayfield
9
7
17
8
C.J. Stroud
6
3
8
9
Brock Purdy
8
6
12
10
Jalen Hurts
12
10
18
11
Jayden Daniels
10
10
22
12
Kyler Murray
11
7
18
13
Justin Herbert
13
6
16
14
Tua Tagovailoa
14
13
21
15
Geno Smith
15
13
20
16
Matthew Stafford
16
7
20
17
Sam Darnold
18
11
28
18
Kirk Cousins
19
11
19
19
Russell Wilson
17
17
30
20
Drake Maye
20
20
23
21
Bo Nix
21
21
29
22
Aaron Rodgers
22
5
22
23
Derek Carr
23
13
27
24
Bryce Young
24
24
31
25
Caleb Williams
25
19
28
26
Jameis Winston
28
26
28
27
Anthony Richardson
26
20
28
28
Will Levis
29
24
32
29
Trevor Lawrence
27
14
29
30
Cooper Rush
30
30
31
31
Aidan O’Connell
NR.
30
31
32
Tommy DeVito
32
32
32

Mayfield linked up with Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales, handily beat out Kyle Trask for the top job, had the best season of his career and inked a three-year, $100 million contract last offseason. Mayfield is playing even better now for offensive coordinator Liam Coen, and he’s looking like a long-term franchise quarterback.

Darnold remained in Carolina in 2022 as a backup before hooking up with head coach Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. He got enough of an education in that system to be an intriguing option for Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, who, like Coen, got his degree at Sean McVay University in Los Angeles. Darnold claimed the starting job over the summer after first-rounder J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus and has played well enough to position himself as the top quarterback in free agency.

Jones can join a team for the stretch run, which benefited Mayfield in 2022. However, it’s hard to find as good of a coaching situation as Mayfield had with McVay and the Los Angeles Rams. Jones would probably have a chance to earn playing time for the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans might also offer paths to the field.

Patience might be his best friend after the season, though. A handful of teams will be looking for a veteran to compete with a young quarterback for the starting job, but Jones should focus on teams with more proven offensive staffs who will aid his development, even if he’s more likely to remain the backup. Maybe it’s the Rams, Bucs, San Francisco 49ers or Minnesota Vikings. Maybe he will jump on board with Detroit Lions OC Ben Johnson or Atlanta Falcons OC Zac Robinson, either with their current teams or if they become head coaches.

Tunnel vision could be dangerous if Jones focuses only on the depth chart and the clearest path to playing time. It’s a down year for draft-eligible quarterbacks, so there will be openings for a veteran to win a job. But remember, if he joins an unproven staff, wins the job in camp and struggles early in the season, there will be a lot of organizational pressure to make a switch to the rookie. That’s a recipe for a lost year.

There’s no guarantee the first idea works, either, and it’s entirely plausible Jones simply never lives up to the hype of being the No. 6 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. But good things have been happening for quarterbacks who have prioritized coaching, and Jones would do well to consider his next team’s entire situation rather than the path of least resistance to playing time.

Time to Jet?

If Aaron Rodgers wants to continue playing in 2025, it’ll be up to team owner Woody Johnson as to whether that will happen with the New York Jets. Those decisions, especially considering the financial and draft collateral invested in the QB, are always run through ownership.

And if Johnson cedes that decision to his next general manager, it would hardly be surprising to see the Jets decide to start over yet again — unless, of course, Rodgers plays much better down the stretch.

Rodgers, who turns 41 next week, is under contract through 2025, but the Jets will deal with salary-cap ramifications at some point. If he plays out the deal, his contract will void after the 2025 season and the Jets would take on a $63 million cap hit in 2026, so there’s no easy way to split with the future Hall of Famer.

But if the Jets cut Rodgers in the offseason with a post-June 1 designation, they’ll incur $14 million in dead money in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. A pre-June 1 release would yield a one-time hit of $49 million in dead money in 2025.

The draft options aren’t great. Right now, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders are viewed as the top two QBs in the class, but some teams have both graded below all six 2024 first-rounders. There aren’t any marquee names among the veteran free agents, either.

It’s conceivable the next GM could opt to keep Rodgers to keep the ship afloat for a season, obviously hoping for him to come back healthier than he’s been. It would also be prudent to build out the rest of the roster with an extended vision rather than continue to sell out during Rodgers’ window.

But the more practical decision would be an immediate split to get the books in order. The Jets knew an organizational reset would happen post-Rodgers, but they surely didn’t envision it happening so quickly or this dramatically.

Three GM candidates were asked how they’d handle the situation. All three said they’d release Rodgers with the post-June 1 designation, though one said it’d be worth at least exploring the possibility of a trade, however unlikely it seems. (Rodgers also has a no-trade clause, to further complicate the matter.)

The caveat is there’d need to be a clear plan at quarterback without Rodgers. The Jets’ repeated failures at the position over the years created the aggressive approach to target Rodgers in the first place, so the fan base would be justified with an unsettled feeling of deja vu.

New regimes are often tasked with unenviable financial decisions. Generally, they don’t prefer to be anchored down by the cumbersome contracts they’ve inherited. That’s why if Rodgers wants to keep playing in 2025, there’s a good chance it’ll happen elsewhere.

Buc hunter

Mayfield didn’t need to stuff the stat sheet to break the Buccaneers’ four-game losing streak; his efficiency was more than enough in a 30-7 throttling of the Giants.

Mayfield was 24-of-30 passing for 294 yards and also rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown that yielded a viral celebration. It was his first game of the season — and just his third with the Bucs — without a touchdown pass. More importantly, Mayfield hasn’t thrown an interception in three consecutive games, which is a nice bounce back from a three-game stretch with seven picks.

As a result, Mayfield jumped to a season-best No. 7 ranking, leapfrogging a struggling C.J. Stroud and an injured Brock Purdy. Mayfield is well on his way to smashing career highs in completion percentage (71.4), yards (on pace for 4,325) and touchdowns (on pace for 37).

The Bucs have an opening to get back into the NFC South race, though they’re a game behind the Falcons and have conceded the tiebreaker. The Bucs won’t send the schedule-makers any thank-you cards after a tough stretch against the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Falcons and 49ers (all losses), but the schedule opens from here. The Los Angeles Chargers are their only remaining opponent with a winning record.

“Being in that game against San Fran without their top two receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) was impressive,” an executive said of Mayfield. “There’s always a little bit of a risk with the downfield interceptions with him, but you love the competitor, the moxie and the way he finishes plays.”

Injury notes

Niners quarterback Purdy and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence remained in the rankings because they’re viewed as week to week with their left shoulder injuries. Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell returned to the rankings because coach Antonio Pierce said he would start Friday if he’s healthy enough to play. Gardner Minshew II, ranked No. 31 last week, is no longer ranked after breaking his collarbone Sunday.

(Photo of Daniel Jones: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)