Welcome back, NFL survivor pool survivors. We’re officially entering the second half of the regular season, and the carnage is real. But you’ve managed to outwit, outplay and outlast. Congratulations!
Heading into Week 10, survival strategy is getting more targeted than ever, so we’re including personalized advice for readers who submitted their questions. Beyond that, we’re making our weekly chalk picks and contrarian picks, with many teams no longer available.
Be sure to look out for mailbag submissions in the following weeks! Give us your exact scenario (or dilemma), and Renee and Adam will offer their advice!
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Week 10 survivor pool Q&A
Question from Melissa B.: At what point do you consider what teams your competitors have left when making your pick for the week? Eight left in my pool — most have already used Kansas City. I’ve been sitting on them for weeks 12 (Carolina) or 13 (Vegas), but maybe this is a good opportunity to take them against Denver? Or do I just stick with my original plan and take the Chargers at home vs. Tennessee this week?
Renee: Congratulations on making it to the Elite 8! If you haven’t been monitoring your opponents thus far, now is definitely a good time to start. I wouldn’t let their available options drive me to a suboptimal decision, but you have a few good candidates for this week. KC is the biggest favorite on the slate, but they give me pause this week for a couple of reasons. One is the undefeated streak. Blah, blah, blah … but the ‘72 Dolphins really will tell you how hard it is to accomplish such a feat. Most streaks end. Second, Denver isn’t really as good as they’ve looked at their best, nor as bad as they’ve looked at their worst. We don’t know which version will show up this week, and it’s a divisional matchup. You can see from below that my money is on the Chargers this week, so I’d go with your original plan. Week 12 isn’t too far away and I’d rather have Kansas City for the Carolina matchup when there isn’t much else looking appealing.
Question from Adam V.: 3,800-name pool down to 38. This is a double pick week so we must be correct on both. Best two choices among: Ravens over Bengals, Giants over Panthers, Bears over Patriots, Falcons over Saints (hate picking divisional road games) or Vikings over Jags. Can also select the Lions at Houston, but I would like to save a week when they host the Jags. Thank you!
Adam: Let me just start off by saying congratulations on sticking in there this long out of that many people.
As for your options here, I would immediately remove Ravens-Bengals just because AFC North games are always kind of a toss-up. I want to feel confident picking the Ravens because they are (I think) a better team, but Joe Burrow is slinging it right now, and he is very capable of going off against a mediocre Ravens defense. I also completely agree with you about having some hesitation over a divisional road game with the Falcons over the Saints. The Falcons should win that game, but New Orleans is at home, has Derek Carr back and might get that short-term “new coach” boost that tends to happen. I do not love that pick.
I honestly do not think you can go wrong with any of the remaining options.
I’m going to go into more detail on my contrarian pick down below, but I actually love the New York Giants matchup over Carolina because Daniel Jones has been really good away from his home fans, and I think their pass rush is going to cause all sorts of problems for the Panthers. Chicago has been great at home, and I love the Bears’ skill position players a lot more than I like New England’s. Minnesota is simply a better team than Jacksonville, even with that being a home game for the Jaguars.
As crazy as this might sound, I might go with Chicago and New York (which are actually going to be my picks for the week down below), not only because I like both teams to win but also because you likely won’t want to consider them again. And you can still hang on to Baltimore and Minnesota for another week in the very near future when you might really want them or need to use them.
Question from Eric C.: My choices this week are Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago or even Atlanta. Thoughts?
Adam: Detroit and Kansas City are the two best teams in football right now, but I think there are good reasons not to pick them this week. In Detroit’s case, Houston is a tough matchup even if the Texans have not matched their level of play from a year ago. It’s not a slam dunk pick by any means, especially with the game being in Houston.
At this point, I also think we need to get used to Kansas City winning ugly and not looking totally dominant. The Chiefs just play that way right now. At some point, however, one of those one-score games will go against them, and the Broncos defense — even with a bad showing in Baltimore this past week — is still a challenge.
I like the Atlanta matchup with the Saints on paper, but as said above, those road divisional games can be tough, and I could see New Orleans playing a decent game here. That, again, leaves Chicago over New England, and I really think that’s the pick. The Bears just have the better talent, they are at home, they are really good at home and New England is simply really bad on the road and overall. Take Chicago with confidence.
Week 10 chalk picks
Highest pick percentage by week: Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles (twice), Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions
The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 10 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread from BetMGM for each of their games as of Nov. 5.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | PICK % | SPREAD |
|---|---|---|---|
 Chargers |
vs. Titans
|
21.62%
|
-7.5
|
 Vikings |
@ Jaguars
|
18.53%
|
-4
|
 Chiefs |
vs. Broncos
|
16.02%
|
-8.5
|
 Bears |
vs. Patriots
|
8.88%
|
-6
|
 Bills |
@ Colts
|
7.53%
|
-4
|
Adam: Chicago Bears over New England Patriots
It would be very, very understandable if you don’t have much confidence picking the Chicago Bears, given the way the past two weeks have gone. They are poorly coached, probably should be better than their record and have a rookie quarterback who is still trying to figure it all out in the NFL (while also being poorly coached). Not great.
But do you know who else is not in a great situation right now? The New England Patriots. Quarterback Drake Maye has injected a little bit of life into the offense, and he is capable of making some plays, but I still like the Bears’ Caleb Williams better than him at this point, and I like the talent he has around him a lot better than I like Maye’s supporting cast.
The Bears are back at home, where they have not lost this season (4-0), while New England is just 1-4 on the road. If you’re still in your league and have already used all your top teams, this might be one of your best options of the week.
Renee: Los Angeles Chargers over Tennessee Titans
We’ll get to the pick in a minute, but consider that the Titans show as one of the better teams to pick against right now. They score the sixth-fewest points in the league but allow the fifth-most points to their opponents. No team turns the ball over more than the Titans (2.1 turnovers per game, T-Las Vegas). The defense allows an average of three touchdowns per game (sixth-most). Offensively, they are league average in rushing yards per game and rushing play percentage but second-to-last in passing yards per game. It doesn’t matter whether Mason Rudolph or Will Levis is playing quarterback; this team struggles on both sides of the ball. They will be running up against a brick wall this weekend in Los Angeles.
You may have sensed some reluctance on the part of at least one of our writers to say nice things about the Chargers, but I’m boldly going there anyway. It’s no longer with skepticism that people talk about LA’s defensive dominance this season. They allow the fewest points per game in the league (12.6, a historic low if it holds), the fewest fantasy points to opponents (particularly stingy to running backs, a Titans’ strength), and, as you might expect, the fewest touchdowns per game (1.3).
The thing that really pushes me toward Los Angeles this weekend, though, is their offense. J.K. Dobbins started the season hot and has recently picked up the production again, scoring three times in the last two games. This has coincided with Justin Herbert’s best two-game stretch of 2024, in which he threw for two touchdowns per game with zero interceptions. Both young receivers, Quentin Johnston (Week 9) and Ladd McConkey (Week 8), have been terrific lately, providing some evidence of a rapport with Herbert that gives me confidence to pick them to beat the Titans this weekend.
Week 10 contrarian picks
Adam: New York Giants over Carolina Panthers
This might be one of the few times this season where anybody would try to make an argument for picking Daniel Jones and the New York Giants, but the siren song of picking against the Carolina Panthers is really too tempting to ignore. The Panthers’ win over Dennis Allen a week ago does not scare me off from that, either.
While I would not urge you to make this your primary pick for the week, I don’t hate this matchup from New York’s perspective. For one, as bad as the Giants have been this season, I still love the potential of their pass rush going up against Carolina. Dexter Lawrence will be the best player on the field, and he is capable of single-handedly ruining another team’s day on any given Sunday. I also feel like Brian Burns might have some revenge game factor in him. AND it’s a neutral-site game (Munich, Germany) for the Giants.
Maybe I’m picking up small-sample-size noise, or maybe there’s something to being away from the pressure of an angry home crowd — but Jones has been a completely different quarterback on the road this season than at home. He has crazy reverse home-road splits, while the Giants as a team have been extremely competitive on the road, even in their defeats. The Giants can (and should) win this game.
Renee: Minnesota Vikings over Jacksonville Jaguars
Maybe the Saints should be the new team to pick against because if you lose to the Panthers, you have some ISSUES. In fact, I have no problem picking Atlanta this weekend since the next time I’d feel this comfortable with the Falcons would be in Week 15 or 17. However, the new coach variable in New Orleans gives me enough pause not to make it official here.
Enter the Jaguars, the hapless Jaguars. The 2-7 Jags are another barometer for who the truly bad teams are (Patriots and Colts). The offensive struggles of this team remain a mystery, but it’s the defensive woes that are consistently losing games for them. Jacksonville allows the third-most points to opponents, second-most touchdowns per game and second-most passing yards per game. They are tied (with Cleveland and Carolina) for the third-worst turnover margin (-0.8 per game) in the league.
The Vikings, meanwhile, get high marks on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they rank eighth in points scored, and defensively, allow the seventh-fewest. This is a really balanced team that leads the league in takeaways (2.1 per game) and routinely gets to the opposing passer (3.4 sacks per game). I expect Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson to have an absolute field day in Florida, with the defense doing its part to exploit Jacksonville’s weaknesses. The Vikings are four-point favorites as of this writing, and the only reason the pick should be considered contrarian is that it’s a road game for Minnesota. There’s not much on the horizon for the Vikings in terms of easy wins … at Tennessee next week is an OK spot (not as good as Jacksonville), but Chicago, Arizona and Atlanta are too close to trust the victory for survivor.
(Photo of Daniel Jones: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
