Thanksgiving is here, and that means it’s time to really start diving into the NFL playoff picture. While most of what I do here at The Athletic is try to project which teams are likely to make the postseason — a task I undertook way back at the beginning of the season — we’re at the point of the year when you can see how drastically things can change in just one day.
What do I mean? Each game from here on out can significantly alter the playoff picture. Of course, some outcomes change things more than others. With that in mind, I’ve fired up my NFL projection model, which simulates the season 100,000 times to give us a sense of the most likely outcomes, to analyze the five games in Week 13 that can have the biggest effect on teams’ playoff odds.
We all know what the big games are heading into each week, but quantifying just how big they are is where it really gets fun. So, let’s get started:
Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
| Team | Current playoff odds | Playoff odds with win | Playoff odds with loss |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dolphins |
32.8%
|
49.2%
|
23.2%
|
 Packers |
93.9%
|
96.5%
|
89.5%
|
The Dolphins have the third-highest swing in playoffs odds going into Week 13 at 26%. That means that the “leverage” of their game on Thanksgiving night in Green Bay will swing their playoff odds, on average, 26%. While a win doesn’t put them in a fantastic spot to make the playoffs, they’ll certainly be in the conversation at around 50%. And after the scary injury to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and a 2-6 start, even those odds didn’t seem possible just a few weeks ago.
The Packers, on the other hand, don’t see too much of a swing in their odds. They will be in a good spot regardless of the outcome Thursday night. However, being at almost 97% with road games at the Lions, Seahawks and Vikings remaining on their schedule has to feel pretty good this late in the season.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
| Team | Current playoff odds | Playoff odds with win | Playoff odds with loss |
|---|---|---|---|
 Chargers |
83%
|
91%
|
75.5%
|
 Falcons |
78.1%
|
87.5%
|
68.3%
|
Both of these teams are in good shape to make the playoffs right now, but a win Sunday can make one of them a near-lock. While the Chargers are all but out of the division race after losing to the Ravens on Monday, they’re in a great position in the wild-card race despite the Dolphins, Bengals and Colts lurking.
The Falcons, on the other hand, pretty much have to win the NFC South if they want to make the playoffs, as the NFC wild-card picture features a lot of strong teams. They’re currently one game up on the Buccaneers, but that lead feels a little stronger due to their 4-1 division mark and two head-to-head victories over the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is currently 1-2 in the division. This matchup with the Chargers is likely their second-hardest remaining game, so a win would go a long way in securing the division crown.
Arizona Cardinals (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
| Team | Current playoff odds | Playoff odds with win | Playoff odds with loss |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cardinals |
49.8%
|
64.3%
|
41.9%
|
 Vikings |
98%
|
>99%
|
92%
|
The Cardinals were in the driver’s seat of the NFC West heading into Week 12. After a loss to the Seahawks, though, they now find themselves with far less room for error. Luckily for Arizona, though, this week’s game is probably going to be their toughest the rest of the season. And depending on how 49ers QB Brock Purdy’s injury plays out, their schedule could get even easier. A win in Minnesota would also give them the slightest increase of chances to get a wild card spot, though their surest path to the postseason is winning the West.
The Vikings can essentially “clinch” a playoff spot with a win Sunday. No, mathematically, it’s not 100%, but the amount of things that would need to fall into place for them to miss the playoffs is astronomical. On the other hand, the Vikings still have a chance at overtaking the Lions for the NFC North crown and have a real shot at securing the first-round bye.
Betting breakout
Cardinals to make the playoffs (+125): I’m not sold on the Cardinals defense, but I can get behind Kyler Murray and the offense against what’s left on the schedule. The Vikings matchup will be tough, but the schedule is favorable the rest of the way, while the rest of the division isn’t as fortunate.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
| Team | Current playoff odds | Playoff odds with win | Playoff odds with loss |
|---|---|---|---|
 Steelers |
88.5%
|
98.7%
|
82.7%
|
 Bengals |
13.1%
|
18.8%
|
3.4%
|
I don’t want to say that this is an elimination game for the Bengals, but that’s pretty much what it is. The Bengals still wouldn’t be in a great position to make the playoffs with a win, but considering the Broncos, Dolphins and Colts all project to be in close games this weekend, this could be the start of something special for QB Joe Burrow and his Bengals if things bounce right. My model currently projects the Bengals to be favored in every game the rest of their season except for the finale in Pittsburgh, which is projected to be a coin flip.
The Steelers, similar to the Packers, can essentially lock up a spot in the AFC playoffs with a victory this weekend. A loss, however, does make things a bit more dicey. After suffering a loss last Monday to the woeful Browns, the Steelers have less margin for error. Back to back losses paired with their remaining schedule would cut the margin drastically.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-8)
| Team | Current playoff odds | Playoff odds with win | Playoff odds with loss |
|---|---|---|---|
 Buccaneers |
46.9%
|
56.3%
|
24.8%
|
The Panthers have almost no chance of making the playoffs despite playing better over the past few weeks, but this game needed to be highlighted because the Buccaneers have the biggest playoff leverage of the week. The Bucs could see their playoff odds swing by more than 31% depending on the outcome Sunday. Factor in that the Falcons have a tough game this week, and you could see an even bigger swing for Tampa Bay. It could be an incredible turnaround for the Bucs, whose playoff odds hit a season-low 15% on Nov. 15. But if things break their way Sunday, combined with their light schedule the rest of the way, they’d have legitimate hope of making the playoffs as we approach December.
(Photo of Zac Taylor and Mike Tomlin: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
