Dear NFL survivor survivors: Congratulations! Not only did you make it to lucky Week 13, but you also convinced our editors to keep running our survivor advice column! Forgive us for even considering dropping this ball during crunch time. We were thinking about pecan pie and took our eyes off the real prize.
Anyway, we received plenty of detailed questions for NFL Week 13, and Adam and Renee have plenty of strategies to discuss as the stakes get higher and higher.
First, see their answers to reader questions about specific Week 13 survivor scenarios, then get their chalk picks and contrarian picks for the week.
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Week 13 survivor pool Q&A
Questions are lightly edited for clarity.
Question from Michael G.: “We started with 660, and now there are five people left. My best choices this week: Bucs, Bills, Giants and Vikings. I’m leaning Bucs. What do you think?”
Renee: I’m with you on the Bucs since they’re my chalk pick. See more below. I’m not touching the Bills this weekend. If you know that the other four in your pool could use the Bucs, you might consider the Vikings, who I also like (also see below). That would leave you with Tampa Bay for next week vs. the Raiders.
Question from Stephen F.: “Commanders or Broncos?”
Renee: Statistically, this answer is as close as could be. The spread on the games is the same (-5.5 points). The average scoring margin for Washington and Denver (+4.8 and +5.2 points) is very similar, as is the margin for Tennessee (-8 points) and Cleveland (-7.4 points). Both are at home. Both are fighting for their playoff dreams. As far as the rookie QBs go, Bo Nix has been steadily improving, while Jayden Daniels started hotter but has had some ups and downs. The Commanders could be without both of their starting running backs this week, so I’d go with Denver, but it is the slimmest of margins. Perhaps the teams available to your opponents could sway you one way or the other?
Question from Sammu D.: “Initially planning on taking Broncos Week 13. Now questioning if I should consider Packers or even Cowboys as options. Saving Bills for Week 16 or 17.”
Adam: While I do really like the Broncos, Cleveland can be a little frisky here, and I am not sure Denver is so good at this point that anybody is an easy win for them. Myles Garrett can ruin a game. Jameis Winston is just out there playing on vibes. It could be a dangerous team. I do like the Packers because until Miami and Mike McDaniel actually beat a good team, I am going to be skeptical of that whole operation. And even without that, I’m never really comfortable picking the road team on a short week. I know it’s wild, but I do not hate the Cowboys this week. Not only is that Giants team awful, but I would imagine Dallas wants to at least have some energy for the Thanksgiving game, and the Giants have that short-week road trip. Do you think a 2-9 team wants to spend its Thanksgiving playing on the road? I don’t.
Question from Mark S.: “Original pool had over 200 entrants, 90 percent out after Week 3 and pool ended after Week 7. Started a new pool Week 5 and we’re down to nine after starting with 125. Lions or Chiefs? Or take a chance on Cowboys at home?”
Adam: If you still have the Lions, I would absolutely go with them. They are a machine right now, and not only do the Bears have to play a road Thursday game, they have to play a road Thursday early afternoon game. Plus, they seem to be inventing new ways to lose right now. You could probably hold onto Kansas City for another week or two and get another favorable matchup with them. Detroit’s remaining schedule is a little tougher, so I would use the Lions this week. But as I have said to others — the Cowboys are not a terrible pick this week.
Question from Gary F.: “If I don’t use the Lions on Thursday, what remaining week would be the ideal week to use them? Are the Cowboys a serious choice against the Giants? What remaining week would you use Tampa Bay? Thanks.”
Adam: Honestly, I think the Cowboys are absolutely a serious choice against the Giants. Neither one of these teams is going anywhere, and I understand the Cowboys have been a calamity at home, but my goodness, have you seen the Giants right now? That whole operation, from top to bottom, is in shambles. Not only that, a short week on the road is always a brutal matchup. For that same reason, I actually think this is a good week to use the Lions. They will be favored in most of their remaining games, but some tough ones are still ahead. Tampa Bay has an easier game against Carolina, but the Panthers have been putting up a fight recently, which could be a little scary in a divisional game. My suggestion: Use the Lions this week while you can since you have them, and save Tampa Bay for next week against Las Vegas.
Question from Bo J.: “I’ve got Chargers and Cowboys this week. Thoughts?”
Renee: I’ll be super basic and take the Cowboys at home on Thanksgiving, where they are 32-23-1 all-time. Cooper Rush did not look ready for primetime in Week 12, but the talent of CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle and an improving defense (?) should be enough to surpass the lowly Giants. I like how LA has been playing, but the East Coast game in the early window and Atlanta’s unpredictability gives me pause.
Question from Simon M.: “Assuming the Niners are at full strength for a must-win game at Buffalo on Sunday night, which of the following three selections would you favor: Buffalo, Dallas or the Rams?”
Renee: It’s Dallas for me. The Saints are another of those teams where you just don’t know what you’ll get, and the Rams have that West Coast/East Coast thing I’d rather avoid (even though a late game is better than the Chargers situation). I think Buffalo should win Sunday night, but it’s not the game I want to risk my survivor pool life on, especially if the 49ers are getting Brock Purdy back.
Week 13 chalk picks
Highest pick percentage by week: Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs
The table below lists Yahoo Fantasy’s five most popular survivor picks for Week 13, with the percentage of pick distribution for each team and the point spread from BetMGM for each of their games as of Nov. 26.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lions |
vs. Bears
|
26.59%
|
-10
|
 Chiefs |
vs. Raiders
|
21.45%
|
-12.5
|
 Buccaneers |
at Panthers
|
14.20%
|
-6
|
 Cowboys |
vs. Giants
|
12.39%
|
-4
|
 Texans |
at Jaguars
|
8.76%
|
-5
|
Renee: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Carolina Panthers
The early bird to the survivor picks gets to write up the team playing the Panthers, as usual. (Sorry, Adam.) Although Carolina had Week 12’s Chiefs pickers very nervous, they ultimately gave in to their losing destiny. The numbers haven’t changed much: Carolina allows opponents the most points per game in the league while scoring the fourth-fewest points in the league. Their scoring margin of -13.3 is almost four points lower than anyone else’s (T-Jacksonville and Las Vegas).
The Bucs came out of their bye week in ideal shape, carving up the Giants in New York 30-7, allowing them to move into fourth in points per game. It’s hard to say whether the Tampa Bay defense is starting to play better post-bye and heading toward the playoffs when it actually matters or whether Tommy DeVito and the Giants just presented zero challenge. Either way, Bryce Young and company are in very much the same garbage bin as the Giants when it comes to offense.
We don’t generally like picking divisional matchups or road teams, but this week, choices are limited, and the mismatch is too great to ignore. Also, based on the questions we got this week, a lot of survivors still have Tampa Bay in their pools. Many of our readers dislike our “rule” of not writing up a team that was previously the most popular pick, especially when that pick lost, so this one’s for you folks.
Adam: Houston Texans over Jacksonville Jaguars
Can I get a mulligan here? Another opportunity at this?
I suggested the Houston Texans as my chalk pick a week ago against the Tennessee Titans and got burned. C.J. Stroud had another off-game. They missed a chip-shot field goal to tie the game and added another bad loss to their schedule this season after dropping a game to the New York Jets earlier this season.
But there is no way they can lose to a two-win team for the second week in a row, is there?
They cannot lose to the Jets, Titans and Jaguars in the same season, right?
I know the Texans have been underwhelming this season versus the success of last year and the preseason hype, and I know there are some serious flaws on this roster (especially along the offensive line), but there is also still a lot of talent on this roster. Jacksonville is arguably the worst team in the league, and there is a chance that Mac Jones will start at quarterback again. Even if Trevor Lawrence returns, he will almost certainly not be 100 percent and is just 2-12 in his past 14 starts.
Week 13 contrarian picks
Renee: Minnesota Vikings over Arizona Cardinals
Although the Vikings are home and favored by 3.5 points, they still feel like an edgy pick. They barely beat the Jaguars, slinked past the Titans, and finally eeked out an overtime win over the Bears. It’s not the most inspiring recent stretch, but they are on a four-game win streak. One factor is the defense, which is doing a great job of controlling the game, allowing the fifth-fewest points to opponents. Minnesota’s scoring margin of +7.0 is the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Arizona entered its bye after a statement win over the NY Jets but exited it by putting up a paltry six points against the Seahawks this past weekend. This has been the story of Kyler Murray and Arizona all season long: inconsistency and mediocrity, with a few flashes of greatness from Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride mixed in. I don’t think the Cardinals will do enough to overcome the Vikings’ defense in Minneapolis.
One of the reasons that home-field advantage is an advantage has to do with penalties. Vikings’ opponents are among the most heavily penalized (second, 62.9 yards per game), irrespective of whether Minnesota is home or away, while Arizona’s opponents are among the least penalized (30th, 30.5 yards per game). The Vikings could be saved for Week 15, but there are a couple of other options you might not have used yet for that week (Arizona and Atlanta come to mind).
Adam: Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants
You rarely get to Week 13 and look at a four-win team and say, “This team should win this game.” But man, the Dallas Cowboys should really win this game.
I know the numbers.
I know they are 0-5 at home. I know they have lost six straight games at home and been absolutely humiliated in all of them. I know their quarterback is Cooper Rush, and I know they have a terrible defense.
But this is another one of those situations where you are not necessarily picking a team as much as you are picking against another team. And my friends, you should pick against the New York Giants.
Every vibe oozing out of that roster and locker room right now is absolutely rancid. At some point, the Cowboys are going to win a home game. The Giants have to play a short week on the road, and as I said above in the Q&A, I can’t imagine anybody on that team will be fired up to spend their Thanksgiving taking a road trip to play a four-win team. And Rush is still a better quarterback than Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock.
I am so confident in this outcome that I almost made them my chalk pick, but I could not bring myself to make a four-win team a chalk pick; it seemed too outrageous. But I would not hesitate to take Dallas this week.
(Photo of CeeDee Lamb: Timothy Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
