Sunday’s Week 13 games followed some of the trends we saw on Thursday and Friday — heavily favored teams making narrow escapes.
BACK ON TOP!
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/ULrtwvSvoZ
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 1, 2024
What to make of those teams that sweated out victories, particularly the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers? The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
Considering their style of play (and its relative success so far), do you buy the Chargers as a team that could move into AFC contender status when the weather gets ugly in January?
Jones: Strong defense and rushing attacks usually translate into success in the postseason. But until Sunday, the Chargers hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record; Atlanta was just a game above .500 and now drops to 6-6. But against the teams they’ll likely face in the postseason (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City), the Chargers are 0-3, getting outscored by a combined 67-43 and giving up an average of 354 yards per game. The Chargers capitalized on Kirk Cousins making some really bad decisions on Sunday, which led to four crippling interceptions. They can’t expect Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson or even Josh Allen, who they don’t face this regular season, to be as reckless with the football. And 14.3 points per game (the Chargers’ scoring average against those AFC front-runners) won’t get the job done in the postseason. This is a great foundation that Jim Harbaugh and his players are laying, but they are not yet AFC contenders.
Nguyen: They are a team that will need dominant efforts from their defense every week, and although they were lights out against the Falcons, they’ve faltered against top offenses. Before this week, they gave up a combined 57 points to the Bengals and Ravens. Their offense has improved but they aren’t a unit that can win in a lot of shootouts. Their running game was explosive with J.K. Dobbins but very inefficient. Also, they have one of the worst interior offensive lines in the league and give up a lot of pressures. Their only receiver who can catch the ball consistently is Ladd McKonkey. If defenses could stop him, they just don’t have enough playmakers. How the defense performs against the Chiefs and Buccaneers in the next two weeks will tell us a lot more about how legitimate their defense is, and this team is as a playoff contender.
Pompei: The Chargers play the kind of football that translates well in ugly weather. They run the ball well. They can play the kind of defense that forces offensive mistakes. They have a quarterback who can win when the clock is ticking down. Their coach has been there before and has won big games. The Chargers have won five of six, and it’s possible they have not played their best football. Beating the Falcons on the road was a statement win, but their biggest challenge will be in Kansas City next Sunday night. A win over the Chiefs could make the Chargers believe they can beat any opponent.
Let’s get ahead of ourselves for a moment: Has free-agent-to-be Russell Wilson earned himself a multi-year commitment from the Steelers?
Pompei: What’s the definition of “multi-year”? Wilson is 36 years old, and the issue is how many more years he can perform the way he’s performing now. Given how Wilson has lifted his team, the Steelers certainly should want him to be their quarterback in 2025. In a perfect world, they could sign him for one more season and see how that goes. But Wilson will be looking for more of a commitment, and if the Steelers aren’t willing to make it, another team probably will be. A three-year deal might be a fair compromise, as long as the Steelers have a way to get out of it after two years.
Jones: We’re not talking five-year deal here, but a two-year deal — or maaaaybe a three-year deal with an out for the Steelers — feels realistic. Wilson looks comfortable in this offense, and that comfort would likely increase in Year 2 with the team. But he has physical limitations. The Steelers keep sprinkling in Justin Fields when they want the threat of a rushing quarterback because they understand the need to protect Wilson. I don’t think a lengthy contract for Wilson, who just turned 36, is likely.
Nguyen: A short term, team-friendly deal would make sense. Locking in Wilson with a huge contract at his age wouldn’t be wise. This team is still built around the defense and running game. Wilson has done a great job of supplementing the offense and distributing the ball, but if his cap hit on a potential extension hurts their ability to keep together a strong defense, that could lead to trouble down the road. Additionally, if his mobility ever takes the type of hit that Aaron Rodgers’ has, Wilson’s game could fall off a cliff. Injuries have to be taken into consideration with older quarterbacks who want to create outside of the pocket.
We saw likely playoff teams in the Chiefs (two points), Texans (three) and Vikings (one point) win narrowly as favorites again. Do you consider tight wins against shaky (or worse) opponents a cause for concern, or something to be encouraged by going into the postseason?
Nguyen: The Vikings beat a pretty good Cardinals team but as I’ve written in this column before, this Vikings team is shaky. If you sort out their blitzes — which is no easy task — that secondary can be exposed. Also, I’m not completely sold on Sam Darnold’s ability to perform in a pure passing game script just yet, though he played a pretty clean game today. The Chiefs have major issues in pass protection and they’re having a difficult time pressuring the quarterback, which is why they’ve played in so many close games. I would normally say a team that has won this many coin flips is fraudulent but we’ve seen the Chiefs flip the switch so many times before, they get the benefit of the doubt. The Texans are an extremely flawed team because their offensive line is so bad. I don’t know if I’m more concerned about any of these teams after this week. The issues that kept the games close have been the same ones that have plagued these teams throughout 2024.
Jones: You’d definitely like to see contenders crush weak opponents. But the truth is, it’s way harder to win games in this league than we often care to acknowledge. There’s often a fine line between 7-5 and 5-7, and at times between 9-2 and 2-9, especially if it’s a divisional matchup like we saw between the Chiefs and Raiders and Texans and Jaguars. Yes, great teams at times light up scoreboards and deliver breathtaking plays. But other times, great teams simply manage to keep self-inflicted wounds — especially under pressure — to a minimum. We saw the Raiders burn themselves in high-pressure situations, and that’s why they’re the Raiders. I don’t at all fault the Vikings for not blowing out the Cardinals. Arizona is a good, well-rounded team with an offense that keeps defenses off balance, and a defense that keeps pressure on opposing offenses. The Vikings should be encouraged by the resilience they showed as they forced the Cardinals to settle for a field goal late rather than surrendering a touchdown in the red zone, and then marched downfield and scored on that Darnold touchdown pass to Aaron Jones to win the game.
Pompei: A dominating win always is preferable to a close win, but tight games are much more common in the NFL. That’s why the league is so unpredictable and so watchable. And every team has flaws. There is something to be said for knowing how to win and creating good luck; it separates the contenders from the pretenders every season. Victories create confidence, even flimsy victories. All three teams, but particularly the Chiefs and Vikings, should be confident in the final weeks. As long as they are winning, it really doesn’t matter how they are winning. But if there are consistent issues that are enabling inferior opponents to play it close (and there may be with all three), those issues could be fatal against more talented opponents.
(Top photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
