NFL's over/under all-stars: Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley among best to bet on so far

It’s not hard to spot the top performers when watching an NFL game or even looking at stats. But when it comes to sports betting, a standout performance doesn’t necessarily mean victory.

However, much as MVP candidates emerge on the field, several have emerged at the sportsbook.

But which players have been all-stars for gamblers so far this season? It depends on how you play. I’ve compiled a list of the players who’ve hit their overs and unders the most in the first half of this season to see who’s been money for NFL bettors.

Here are a few things to keep in mind.

These lines were gathered from BetMGM on Thursday afternoons, several hours before “Thursday Night Football” kicked off. Most of those lines moved up and down several times before a game kicked off.

These categories were monitored as they had shared fantasy impact as well:

• Passing yards
• Passing touchdowns
• Rushing yards
• Receiving yards
• Receptions

Players must have had at least six lines through Week 9 at the time they were logged to qualify for the leaderboards.

Let’s get into the lists.

Passing yards

Lamar Jackson, Ravens: The reigning MVP hit his passing yards’ over seven times through the Ravens’ first nine games. He’s throwing for 264.3 yards per game, and his average over/under was 213.9 yards through the first nine games.

One of his unders came in the Ravens’ Week 3 28-25 win against the Cowboys, which saw Baltimore build a big halftime lead and run the ball for much of the game — Jackson only attempted 15 passes that day. The other came against the Bills, who’ve only allowed two of the seven quarterbacks they’ve faced with lines to hit their overs. (Will Levis had a Week 7 over/under versus the Bills but was ruled out.)

Notes: Seattle’s Geno Smith and Washington’s Jayden Daniels each hit five straight overs from weeks 2 to 6. Daniels left his Week 7 game with a rib injury that broke his streak.

Also in the top five is Brock Purdy, who also routinely hit his rushing yards over, and Matthew Stafford, who benefited from his over/under dropping from an average of 264.5 in weeks 1 and 2 to 226.1 in weeks 3-8. Stafford is averaging 238.7 passing yards per game this season — and that’s without having his top two receivers for most of the first half of the year.

Deshaun Watson, Browns: The players who hit their unders most often aren’t necessarily on the worst teams. For example, Sam Darnold went under his passing yards prop five times and the Vikings are 6-2. But it also doesn’t mean they’re on the best teams. The Browns are 2-7 and their quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles injury, cashed his passing yards under all six times he had a line listed.

Watson didn’t finish his Week 7 game against the Bengals — when his injury occurred — but was able to hit an under of 192.5 in Week 6 against the Eagles. He even went under in Week 2 against the Jaguars who allowed every other QB they faced with an over/under that week except Jordan Love, who left the Week 8 game in the first half with a groin injury, to hit their over.

Notes: Watson was followed by recently benched Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who went under five out of six times he had a prop listed. Richardson missed two games with an injury but had the Colts at 3-3 with him as the starter. His average over/under was 197.2 in those six games but he averaged 159.7 passing yards per game.

Passing touchdowns

Jordan Love, Packers: The only game Love didn’t hit his touchdown passes’ over was a Week 8 win against the Jaguars. Love left that game in the first half with a groin injury.

To illustrate how much of a lock he’s been with throwing TD passes this season, Love’s over/under that week was set at 2.5 — the highest of any QB in any week this season.

Notes: The top two passers on this list, Love and Baker Mayfield, signed lucrative extensions in the offseason with Love nabbing a deal that briefly made him the NFL’s highest-paid player. Mayfield, who leads the NFL with 23 touchdown passes, has hit his touchdowns overs in six straight games.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals: The Cardinals are 5-4 this season and they’ve gotten above .500 by running the ball effectively. Arizona ranks second in the NFL with 5.3 yards per rush attempt and has attempted the seventh-fewest passes in the NFL. It’s clear the Cardinals’ goal has been to run the ball effectively and they’ve done just that. Murray does have 11 touchdown passes this season and the games he went over were in Week 8 against Miami, which hadn’t allowed a QB to hit his over this season, and in Week 2, a 41-10 blowout against the Rams, who’ve allowed five of the eight QBs they faced to hit their passing yards over.

Notes: Stafford, who was one of the most reliable QBs to hit his passing yards over the first half of the season, was also one of the most reliable players to hit his touchdown passing under. Stafford didn’t hit his touchdown pass over until Week 8 when his top two receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua, returned to the lineup. He’s hit his over in two of the three games both receivers have started.

Rushing yards

QB rushing overs

Saquon Barkley, Eagles: His only under came in Week 6 against the Browns. His longest rush in that game went for 10 yards. He’s had a rush of at least 19 yards in every other game this season.

Notes: Ravens running back Derrick Henry only hit his under twice this season — in Week 1 against the Chiefs and in Week 8 against the Browns. The Ravens lost both of those games, which also saw Henry get his fewest carries this season, 13 and 11.

QB rushing unders

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons: Allgeier only went over in Week 6 against the Panthers. That coincidently was the only time he and Falcons feature running back Bijan Robinson went over in the same game. They both hit their under in Week 8, but Robinson missed going over by a yard that game.

Notes: Jets running back Breece Hall went the first five games without hitting his over. He’s only gone under once in the last four games.

Receiving yards

*Chart only contains top 3

Rashod Bateman, Ravens; Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars; Rico Dowdle, Cowboys: Bateman hasn’t had an over/under set the last two games but before that only went under in Week 4 against the Bills. His average over/under this season is 28.9, and he’s averaging 17.9 yards per reception.

Thomas only missed his over in one game, a Week 6 loss to the Bears. In that game, he averaged a season-low 9 yards per reception.

The Cowboys haven’t run the ball well this season, but Dowdle has been active in the passing game and has hit his receiving yards over in every game he’s played after Week 1.

Notes: Packers receiver Romeo Doubs and Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith both have only gone under once this season and both are playing with quarterbacks who appeared earlier on this list. Jakobi Meyers, who also has only missed his over once, coincidentally a Raiders win, has caught passes from three quarterbacks this season.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers: Aiyuk’s season ended in Week 7’s loss to the Chiefs. He’d only hit his over once before that — a Week 5 win against the Cardinals. Yes, the 49ers have a lot of mouths to feed on offense, but Aiyuk actually saw more targets through the first seven weeks (47) than he did in 2023 (43) where he totaled a career-high 1,342 receiving yards.

Receptions

*Chart only contains top 3

Zach Ertz, Commanders; Terry McLaurin, Commanders; Rashod Bateman, Ravens; Justin Jefferson, Vikings: Ertz and McLaurin went under in Week 1 and hit their overs in this category each week there was a line up until Week 9 against the Giants. Both of McLaurin’s receptions went for touchdowns in that game.

Jefferson, who has the sixth-most receptions in the NFL since the Vikings selected him in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, has hit his prop every week one was listed since Week 2.

Sam LaPorta, Lions; Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals: LaPorta is a part of one of the NFL’s best offenses on the 7-1 Lions. LaPorta only went over in Detroit’s Week 8 win against the Titans. He had a season-high six targets in that game. The second-year tight end has seen fewer targets this season — he has 26 through Week 9 compared with 43 targets over the same span in 2023.

Harrison only exceeded his prop over in Week 8 as well. He leads the Cardinals in touchdown receptions and ranks second on the team in receptions and yards.

(Illustration: Kelsea Petersen / The Athletic; photos of Geno Smith: Steph Chambers; Brian Thomas Jr.: Mike Carlson; Breece Hall: Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)