Our season preview series kicks off in a couple of weeks and we’ve got you covered with each team’s projected point total, their chances of winning the Stanley Cup and everything in between.
For those that want to bet, though, that’s not soon enough. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered with the best bets to make based on our projections. They’ve done pretty well in each of the last two seasons (2022, 2023) with back-to-back Presidents’ Trophy hits. Let’s hope for the same luck this year.
While we won’t be unveiling each team’s specific projections and probabilities, we will be discussing which teams make a good bet based on their current lines.
It’s always important to bet responsibly and only wager what you’re comfortable with — and that’s especially true with futures, where your money will be tied up for the whole season. The key to betting is managing a bankroll: betting small percentages based on edges and not dipping into money that isn’t designated for betting. With futures, what I usually do is designate a percentage of my bankroll for futures only to create a “futures bankroll.” Maybe that’s 10 percent, maybe that’s 25 percent — the idea is to not tie up too much money, especially if you’re betting on games throughout the season.
The best bets for this year are separated into two sections: point totals and playoffs, plus futures (division, conference, Cup props). I’ve added a stake size based on allocating a percentage of our entire futures bank roll – so it adds up to 100 percent if you were to bet all of them. For perspective, an eight percent bet is massive; but if you’ve devoted 25 percent of your total bankroll to futures, it essentially makes it a two-percent bet.
Point Totals and Playoffs
Detroit Red Wings
UNDER 90.5 points, -120 (Stake: 7.5 percent)
NO playoffs, -162 (7 percent)
The Red Wings are easily my biggest fade this year. A 90.5-point total feels extremely generous for a team that felt fortunate to land at 91 last season. The Red Wings had the seventh worst expected goals percentage last season, but survived off hot shooting. They allowed the second most chances on the penalty kill, but countered that with unsustainably good goaltending.
All that would be fine if the team was relatively young (they’re not), made meaningful improvements in the offseason (they didn’t), or could count on declines from teams around them (not likely). Unless Simon Edvinsson is the missing a piece and a day-one god, it’s difficult to envision a playoff path for the Red Wings this season — or matching last year’s 91 point total.
Vancouver Canucks
OVER 97.5 points, -111 (7 percent)
It’s interesting that the market seems fine with Detroit’s mirage season but won’t extend the same courtesy for Vancouver. Yes, the Canucks had a high PDO and that should regress — but 97.5 points is a big dip from 109 last season.
The difference here is that the Canucks actually have the shooting and goaltending talent to warrant belief. There are legit superstars on this team that can move the needle from a percentage perspective making them a much easier team to back. Combine that with the team’s growing ability to control the puck at five-on-five during the season and Vancouver’s price at 97.5 points is appetizing.
There’s also reason to believe Vancouver got better in the offseason. The defense group may not look great past the top pair, but Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen and Daniel Sprong help give the Canucks one of the deepest forward groups in the league.
This is an elite team somehow ranked 13th in the league and tied for sixth in the West. I’m taking the over.
St. Louis Blues (65)
UNDER 86.5 points, -113 (4.5 percent)
NO playoffs, -215 (6 percent)
Death, taxes and my model doubting the Blues. St. Louis was a bit of a surprise last year, earning 92 points and I’m not totally convinced it can repeat that.
St. Louis had an average penalty kill last season, but was bottom three at five-on-five expected goals (worse than the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets!) and had a pretty wretched power play. If not for an out-of-nowhere renaissance from Jordan Binnington, things would’ve been a lot worse for the Blues last year.
The Blues did make some intriguing additions during the summer that might shake things up. But it feels like last season was closer to a false bounce than anything real.
New York Islanders
OVER 91.5 points, -113 (4.5 percent)
YES playoffs, +100 (4.5 percent)
No, hell has not frozen over. The Islanders are indeed a team worth betting according to The Model that Islanders fan love to hate.
The model’s confidence derives from an underrated core that features Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson and Ilya Sorokin. The emergence of Dobson in particular last season is a big deal, one that ups the immediate ceiling of this team and veers them away from the downward trajectory they were on two years ago.
While I don’t think the Islanders are world-beaters by any means, they should be a much safer playoff bet than the odds suggest, especially relative to Detroit whose total is somehow only one point lower. There’s a lot more to like in Long Island, especially with the Anthony Duclair addition and a few additions by subtraction. There’s also a new-ish coach behind the bench in Patrick Roy, who is notably not Lane Lambert.
Last season the Islanders made the playoffs and earned 94 points despite their best player, Sorokin, having a down year. Expect a bounce-back there and expect the Islanders to land higher than 92 points.
Toronto Maple Leafs
OVER 101.5 points, -125 (6 percent)
It’s interesting to see the market so light on the Leafs. Last year was a low-point for the current core, sure, but that was still a 102-point season. There’s plenty of reason to believe this year’s group has more to offer.
The core four remain intact and while some may be disappointed in that fact, it remains Toronto’s biggest advantage. The support around them could be better, but if Ryan Reaves is used more sparingly that’s already a big win. Either way, it’s more of the same from a group that was second in the league in scoring last season.
We know the Leafs can score. It’s the defensive ability getting back on track that should lead to significantly more optimism going into next season. I was lower on the Leafs going into last year partly because they made a lot of defensive concessions for the sake of offense. This season they’ve cleaned things up, namely with the addition of Chris Tanev on the blue line. He’s a big deal for the top four and a massive improvement over what was previously there.
On top of that, the Leafs should have much better goaltending this year. They had the 24th best save percentage last season, but I imagine Anthony Stolarz is a big upgrade over Ilya Samsonov — and that Joseph Woll can surprise as a full-time starter.
The Leafs are still an elite team and should be priced much higher than they are.
Edmonton Oilers
OVER 106.5 points, -111 (6 percent)
The Oilers are the league favorite at 106.5 points and it’s usually not wise to bet the over on the best team. Usually. Edmonton’s line doesn’t go far enough and should be closer to 110 points — the Oilers are that good going into this season.
The Oilers aren’t just “running back” a Stanley Cup finalist, they have arguably improved on last year’s team, which was only one goal away from winning it all. Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson are upgrades up front, plus they’ll have a full season of Adam Henrique. It’s the league’s best forward group.
On defense, the Oilers may be better off with Ty Emberson over both Cody Ceci and Philip Broberg. He’s a sneaky good shutdown type that may be exactly what Edmonton needs in its top four.
Since hiring Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers were basically unstoppable last season. I’d expect more of the same this season.
Montreal Canadiens
OVER 75.5 points, -120 (4.5 percent)
The Canadiens are a team on the rise that added Patrik Laine to an improving lineup. It’s hard not to like them to hit over 75.5 points, a total they bested last season.
The team’s core is getting better each year with Juraj Slafkovsky’s full season progression being the most notable. That group is getting Kirby Dach back after he missed almost all of last season with injury, and adding the electric Lane Hutson to the backend. The Canadiens are on the upswing and it feels like this is the season the show it.
Utah HC
OVER 87.5 points, -125 (4.5 percent)
YES playoffs, +164 (2 percent)
If you want a playoff long shot, there’s a lot of value in Utah at +164 who I believe to be closer to a 50-50 proposition. While Utah is not among the projected top eight teams in the West right now, the newly relocated club is right on the cusp with not much significant competition behind them.
The additions of Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino and Ian Cole greatly strengthen the team’s blue line which was a massive weakness last season. That group should be able to get the puck up to the team’s underrated forward group, which has some of the best winger depth in the league.
There’s a lot of young talent on this roster and I think they’re ready to compete this season.
Carolina Hurricanes
OVER 101.5 points, -104 (3.5 percent)
The Hurricanes have been above a 110-point pace for four straight seasons now — a 101.5 point total feels like a gift.
While Carolina did lose a lot of significant talent this offseason, the Hurricanes did a decent job replacing that talent either internally or externally. This is still an elite defensive team that will be a pain to score on, which is aided by the growing development of Pyotr Kochetkov between the pipes.
Carolina is still a safe bet for the top of the league until proven otherwise.
Washington Capitals
NO playoffs, -220 (3.5 percent)
This is a really chalky bet, but there’s a tendency for oddsmakers to not bake in enough certainty at the extreme ends of the playoff race spectrum. While it’s generally not the wisest proposition to leave betting money tied up for months just to make back less than 30 percent of your investment — value is value.
I capped the plays listed here at -250, but there were also edges on several teams fairly close to “lock” territory. There’s no such thing as a guarantee, but if you’re able to find a book willing to parlay playoff picks then there’s a probably a worthy combination to be made. I like Edmonton, Vancouver, Dallas, Florida, Toronto, Rangers, Carolina to make the playoffs and Calgary, Philadelphia to miss.
Back to Washington; while I like what the Capitals did to stay competitive this season, there are just too many teams I like a lot more in the East. I’m closer to -438 on this one, making -220 a relative value.
Vegas Golden Knights
UNDER 99.5 points, -115 (3.5 percent)
I’m not sure enough people are aware just how barren Vegas’s winger situation is going into the season. After Mark Stone — who has averaged 45 games over the last three seasons — the Golden Knights have Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Dorofeyev, Alex Holtz, Brendan Brisson, Victor Olofsson, Brett Howden and Keegan Kolesar. There may not be a weaker collection in the league.
They can potentially fix that by shifting any of their stacked centers to the wing and the defense is still loaded with talent, too. But in all, there are just significantly more holes in the lineup than years past. A 99.5-point total suggests that Vegas is a fairly safe playoff bet, but the Golden Knights look vulnerable right now. (For what it’s worth, my model would price the Golden Knights missing the playoffs at +221, so there might be value there depending on your book’s price).
Winnipeg Jets
OVER 94.5 points, -120 (2 percent)
YES playoffs, -172 (2.5 percent)
I don’t love the Jets roster, but they still have one of the best goalies in the world in Connor Hellebuyck. Everything else can be mid and it doesn’t matter too much — Winnipeg should still be a playoff team. I think they’re a safer bet than their odds indicate.
Philadelphia Flyers
UNDER 85.5 points, -106 (2.5 percent)
The Flyers were a nice surprise last season, but even with Matvei Michkov in town, it’s difficult to buy them as a team that will be this competitive. A lot went right for a roster without much talent last season — I’d expect a market correction this season.
Futures
Edmonton Oilers
Division, +115 (3 percent)
Conference, +400 (1 percent)
Stanley Cup, +850 (1 percent)
Presidents’ Trophy, +700 (1.5 percent)
The Oilers are the team to beat this year and across the board their odds feel light for that distinction.
With the division in particular, only the Canucks feel like a real threat in the Pacific. A +115 line doesn’t go far enough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Division, +290 (3 percent)
Conference, +650 (1 percent)
Stanley Cup, +1500 (0.5 percent)
Presidents’ Trophy, +1100 (1.5 percent)
The Leafs are the favorites in the Atlantic Division — at least they should be according to the model. The Panthers lost a lot of talent on their blue line, the Bruins are ageing and the Lightning still have some significant depth holes up front. Toronto is far from a perfect team, but on paper the Leafs currently grade out as the best the Atlantic has to offer.
That means there’s value on each future here with a division win being the most appetizing. After finishing second or third in the Atlantic in every season of the Core Four era, it’s time for this “regular season” team to actually win something in the regular season, too.
Vancouver Canucks
Division, +460 (1 percent)
Conference, +1100 (0.5 percent)
Stanley Cup, +2300 (0.5 percent)
Presidents’ Trophy, +2500 (0.5 percent)
Regression be damned — the Canucks should still be a force next season. While they may not be the division favorite, I have their combined chances with the Oilers close to 90 percent, partially because I don’t think the Golden Knights are much of a threat this season. The duo is being priced around 74 percent instead.
Aside from that, it does feel like the Canucks are being disrespected far too much in other markets. That 13 teams rank above them in Stanley Cup odds is absolutely wild to me. They have a good shot at being a top five team this season.
Carolina Hurricanes
Division, +270 (1.5 percent)
Conference, +650 (0.5 percent)
The Devils are getting a ton of love this offseason and the Rangers beat a better version of the Hurricanes in last year’s playoffs. That leaves the Hurricanes as the third team in the Metro. Given their recent regular season resume, their core, their pipeline and their system, I’m inclined to think that’s short. I still believe the Metro goes through Carolina.
Dallas Stars
Division, +230 (1.5 percent)
Oddsmakers are giving Colorado the slight edge in the Central. I think the split should go to the Stars and am a bit more decisive about it, giving the Stars a 43 percent chance at the division compared to Colorado’s 26 percent. Dallas has a more balanced and well-rounded team, one with depth up front and defensive ability throughout. Add some progression from the team’s bevy of young studs and the Stars should be a more considerable Central favorite going into the season.
(Top photo of Mitch Marner: Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
