NHL panic meter: Concern levels for 5 Western teams in danger of missing the playoffs

One of the teams we’re profiling in today’s Western Conference panic meter already fired its head coach after a disappointing start. Another team’s head coach said he could legitimately scratch every player in his lineup, despite offseason consensus that his team won free agency.

The pressure is on in the West — as it should be, given how hard it is to make the playoffs after setting points on fire early in the season.

Some teams are clinging to wild-card spots despite greater expectations, while others are on the outside looking in and running out of time. Which of these underachieving Western teams should be legitimately worried? Who’s a good bet to finish strong and fight their way back into a playoff spot?

Today, we’ll dig into all of that with insight into five of the Western Conference’s biggest underachievers. We’ll also touch on long-term concerns, such as how the rebuilding teams on this list are tracking in the bigger picture beyond this season. That analysis will not factor into the panic meter score at the end.

So whose seasons and jobs are on the line? Who’s still in the fight?

Let’s break out the panic meter to analyze how concerned these organizations should be about their chances of making the postseason: 1 indicating not worried, 10 indicating full panic mode.

Nashville Predators

Record: 9-17-6

What’s gone wrong: The Predators are the most disappointing team in the NHL this season.

Adding two 40-goal scorers in Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, plus a high-end top-four blueliner in Brady Skjei, was supposed to give a pesky underdog Nashville team that gave the Canucks a hard fight in the first round of the playoffs last year an injection of the high-end skill required to take the next step as dark-horse contenders. Even the harshest critics of the Preds’ splashy offseason couldn’t have predicted they’d be dead last in the NHL more than 30 games in.

The Predators’ biggest problem has ironically been scoring goals, with their average of 2.25 goals per game ranking 32nd. Why has a team that ranked top 10 in goals scored last year before the Stamkos and Marchessault arrivals been completely anemic offensively?

All of Nashville’s best players have regressed hard. Part of it is because the Predators’ top line last season (Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist) overachieved. Part of it is because the top six lacks creative offensive playmakers, especially at center, which means that Stamkos and Marchessault, who are pure snipers, don’t have dynamic creators to set them up. And part of it is shooting just 5.6 percent at five-on-five, a woeful finishing clip that suggests they’ve been due a few more bounces.

Nashville’s blue line has also underachieved by a large margin. Not only are Roman Josi’s offensive numbers down significantly, he’s been on the ice for 28 five-on-five goals against, which is one of the worst marks in the NHL. Skjei has failed to move the needle both offensively and defensively. They’re feeling the loss of Ryan McDonagh, who was shipped to Tampa Bay to open up the cap room to sign all these expensive contracts in free agency.

The Preds have lost their speedy, blue-collar identity and have become older and slower with their offseason moves.

Outlook: This season is a lost cause. Nashville would have to play at a ridiculous 122-point pace to finish the season with 98 points, which was the total required to make the West playoffs in 2023-24.

It’s hard to believe they’ve been this bad considering they have the best penalty kill in the NHL and Juuse Saros still ranks in the top 10 among all goaltenders for goals saved above expected.

Big picture, this franchise is caught in an awkward spot. A rebuild would be near-impossible when they have $25 million per season committed long-term to Stamkos, Marchessault, O’Reilly and Skjei, who are all on the wrong side of 30. Doubling down on the win-now strategy would be a mistake — they overachieved last season and aren’t anywhere close to being contenders. A retool on the fly seems like the only feasible option, but that won’t be easy to execute either because of all the bad contracts now on the books.

Making the playoffs panic meter: 10/10

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 18-15-0

What’s gone wrong: The Avs are a bottom-five team in surrendering 3.45 goals against per game, which predominantly stems from their issues in the crease.

Colorado’s team save percentage is .871 this season, last in the NHL. Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen combined to allow nearly 13 goals more than what you’d expect from league-average goaltending, according to Evolving-Hockey’s model.

The Avalanche have also been hammered by injuries and absences, especially early in the season. At one point, they were missing six of their top nine forwards at the same time — Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin, Ross Colton and Miles Wood. Colorado is slowly getting healthier (though Landeskog, Drouin and Wood remain out) but the forward group is still incredibly top-heavy. Last game against the Canucks, their bottom six featured Logan O’Connor, Joel Kiviranta, Parker Kelly, Chris Wagner, Ivan Ivan and Tye Felhaber. That lack of forward depth stands out as a major weakness.

In addition, Josh Manson’s injury has created a hole on the right side of the blue line.

Colorado’s power play has been mystifyingly bad lately, converting on just five of its last 48 opportunities in the last 18 games. The man advantage almost singlehandedly lost them the game against the Canucks on Monday night because it went 0-for-4 and surrendered a short-handed goal. It’s mind-boggling how a power-play with so much star power can look so ineffective.

Outlook: There are several reasons to be confident that Colorado should clinch a playoff spot.

The goaltending has improved on paper, with Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood in the fold now. Blackwood was terrific behind a terrible Sharks defensive environment over the last couple of seasons. He’s off to a promising start wearing Avs colors, posting a .937 save percentage in two games. The Avalanche don’t even need good goaltending — they just need their netminders to not singlehandedly lose them games. We’re betting Blackwood can be that steady hand.

Colorado should get healthier in the second half, which will boost the club’s depth.

It’s also hard to bet against the Avs when Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar are terrorizing teams almost every game. MacKinnon leads the NHL in points — how many times has a team with a potential Art Ross winner, on pace for nearly 125 points, missed the playoffs?

The Avalanche have flaws and are top-heavy, but with this much elite talent and upgraded goaltending, they should make the postseason.

Making the playoffs panic meter: 3/10

Seattle Kraken

Record: 15-15-2

What’s gone wrong: Seattle is running in place, making 2022-23’s 100 point, second-round accomplishment look more like an outlier with each passing year.

Chandler Stephenson was brought in to insulate Matty Beniers and Shane Wright but has not been effective enough to win his minutes. Stephenson has been badly outshot (214-161) and outscored (23-14) at five-on-five, while scoring enough on the power play to achieve a 56-point pace. Beniers has won his five-on-five minutes (17-10) but a 6.9 percent overall shooting percentage has sucked the air out of his offensive efforts. He’s on pace to finish the season with 44 points, a disappointing scoring rate for a player from whom so much more is rightfully expected. The Kraken have enough secondary scorers; someone needs to emerge as a consistent, primary, gamebreaking threat.

On defense, the most obvious problem has been Vince Dunn’s injury limiting him to 12 games, while veterans Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak haven’t excelled despite better track records in big minutes. Will Borgen has been dramatically outscored, with most of the damage coming in games played alongside Josh Mahura.

Zooming in on these individual performances might understate the degree to which Philipp Grubauer’s .879 save percentage in 12 games has undercut Joey Daccord’s .916 in 20 games. It also draws attention away from a 5-8-1 start under new head coach Dan Bylsma and back-to-back losses to the San Jose Sharks in November. Growing pains are to be expected — Bylsma’s systems are new and the adaptation has not always been smooth — but Seattle has thrown enough points away early to put itself behind four teams for a wild-card spot.

Outlook: There are worse places from which to panic, and it’s not all doom and gloom. Wright struggled to start the season — he was sent down, again — but has been a much more impactful player since his return. Seattle is also getting more power-play production from Stephenson than Vegas did, and it’s clear they needed someone to eat minutes down the middle. Ryker Evans’ breakthrough has been a great story, Brandon Montour has been a great addition and the Kraken have The Athletic’s ninth-best group of prospects, according to Scott Wheeler in August.

Maybe they will get a better backup goaltender or Grubauer will turn it all around. Maybe Bylsma’s systems will snap into place, with execution matching intention and no more breakout troubles. Maybe Beniers will go on a long and sustained heater or Seattle’s special teams will become something better than average. It’s more likely that Seattle misses the playoffs for the third time in four years.

At some point, expectations are going to be higher than late-season relevance, though. Seattle’s long, slow, thoughtful build needs to make gains lest the Kraken find themselves stuck in a long-term “mushy middle” situation — too good for a lottery pick, not good enough for a deep playoff run.

Making the playoffs panic meter: 7.5/10

St. Louis Blues

Record: 15-15-3

What’s gone wrong: It’s been challenging for the Blues, who rank 29th in goals scored per game, to put the puck in the back of the net for a variety of reasons.

Their power play is muddling along at a miserable 16.4 percent clip. They have trouble sustaining offensive-zone pressure and creating quality looks from dangerous scoring areas, as they rank 29th in the NHL at generating five-on-five expected goals per 60.

Heat map via HockeyViz

Robert Thomas, their best forward, missed 12 games with injury. They don’t have a true second-line center: Pavel Buchnevich started the season there but had a slow start and since has been shifted back to the wing.

Overall, the Blues profile as one of the league’s weakest even-strength teams. St. Louis has controlled just 47.7 percent of shot attempts at five-on-five this season — only Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, Anaheim and San Jose rank lower.

A big chunk of the Blues’ lackluster two-way results can be traced back to the blue line. Philip Broberg has been a strong top-four fit, but the left side has still been a major weakness. Nick Leddy, who usually skates on the top pair with Colton Parayko, has missed all but four games this season with an injury. That has left 39-year-old Ryan Suter averaging over 22 minutes per night.

Between the pipes, Jordan Binnington has regressed. He was incredible for the Blues last year, posting a .913 save percentage playing behind a shoddy defensive team, but he’s slipped to an .899 save percentage this season.

Outlook: Jim Montgomery’s arrival as head coach has given the franchise a lift. St. Louis is 6-3-2 since Montgomery took over and they haven’t just been beating up on bottom-feeder teams. The Blues have won against the Jets, Canucks, Devils, Flames and the Rangers (twice) in this span. None of those opponents rank bottom 10 in the league standings.

The Cam Fowler acquisition should help their blue line, too, though it’s fair to wonder how much he has left in the tank at age 33. Fowler’s underlying metrics fell off a cliff during the end of his time in Anaheim, as the Ducks were outscored by a whopping 45 goals with Fowler on the ice at five-on-five since 2023-24. We’ll see how decisively he can bounce back with a fresh start in a significantly better team environment, as his skating and outlet passing ability are still legitimate strengths.

St. Louis has looked faster and more dangerous offensively under Montgomery, but interestingly, the team’s underlying metrics have only improved slightly. The Blues are competitive, legitimately intriguing and we expect them to stay in the race until the end, but do they have enough star talent to leapfrog Colorado or Vancouver, who are currently occupying wild-card spots? The Avs and Canucks have elite offensive game-breakers that the Blues lack and are superior overall teams on paper.

Making the playoffs panic meter: 7/10

Utah HC

Record: 14-11-5

What’s gone wrong: Utah had one of the most exciting summers in NHL history, relocating from Arizona and then adding John Marino, Mikhail Sergachev and Ian Cole to a roster that already boasted top young players such as Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, Matias Maccelli, Clayton Keller and Sean Durzi.

But Durzi and Marino got hurt, Utah’s special teams have been mediocre and some of Utah’s young scorers have been underwhelming. Lawson Crouse hasn’t wowed and Maccelli needs to average more than 1.2 shots per game to have an impact. Offseason expectations — Dom had the HC headed for playoff contention — have given way to a tougher-than-expected reality. Marino and Durzi are out long-term; it’s unlikely either will return early enough to make a major impact on Utah’s playoff chances.

In the meantime, Utah’s biggest problem is probably a lack of time machine — whether to accelerate its young stars’ development or assure good health for its veteran defensemen. GM Bill Armstrong was wise to temper playoff expectations in his preseason address to Utah media; his club is in tough to make the playoffs, just like he knew it would be.

Outlook: Utah isn’t out of the playoff picture entirely. The Athletic currently projects around 33 percent odds, while the team has more than enough draft capital, cap room and ambition from owner Ryan Smith to make upgrades if they think they’re close. It’s also worth mentioning that Michael Kesselring has stepped into the top-four minutes void and come out looking ready to play top competition, offering coverage if pending UFA defensemen such as Cole (or Olli Maatta) sign elsewhere.

Utah also has legitimately strong underlying numbers at even strength, ranking in the top 10 in the NHL for controlling both shot attempts and expected goals at five-on-five.

If you’re looking for short-term optimism, Utah is 6-2-2 in its last 10 games and has a better points percentage than wild-card-holding Colorado and a better goal differential than Calgary. The Avalanche might be too tough to catch but Utah remains a team with quality players on its NHL roster and in its pipeline. The playoffs might not happen for them this season, but the future remains bright.

Making the playoffs panic meter: 6/10

(Top photo of Colorado’s Valeri Nichushkin checking Utah’s Michael Kesselring: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)