Great teams can recover from bad starts … in October and November. But slide into the new year outside of a playoff spot, despite big offseason signings? People lose jobs for that, while supposed contenders often start prepping for deadline-day fire sales.
In the Eastern Conference, time is ticking for established, longtime contenders and the next generation of young stars alike. Some of them have an uphill battle to get back into a playoff spot, while a couple are still barely clinging onto one. Which of these underachieving Eastern teams should be legitimately worried? Who’s a good bet to make a strong push back into a playoff spot heading into 2025?
Let’s break out the panic meter to analyze how concerned these organizations should be about their chances of making the postseason: 1 meaning not worried, 10 meaning full panic mode.
There are sometimes factors beyond a team’s playoff odds this season that warrant a mention, however. Look at the Rangers, for example. The East is mediocre enough that New York still has a good chance of making the playoffs. Their “playoff panic” rating might not be high but it’d feel wrong to simply leave the analysis at that. The Rangers had Cup contention expectations and their window is potentially closing — that’s where there’s legitimate reason for panic. We’ll be sure to touch on bigger concerns like that in the “outlook” section but they will not factor into the panic meter score at the end.
Note that we aren’t discussing the Pittsburgh Penguins because we didn’t have space to analyze every disappointing Eastern team. In our minds, the Penguins’ playoff chances are already over.
New York Rangers
Record: 15-12-1
What’s gone wrong: The Rangers create a lot of scoring chances, play the 2021 Norris Trophy winner on their top pair and are getting dominant results from secondary scorers like Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko and Will Cuylle at five-on-five. They’ve also just locked up one of the best goaltenders in the world to a long-term contract, cementing the team’s biggest strength for years to come. They’re the defending Presidents’ Trophy winners, made it to the Eastern Conference final in two of the past three seasons and are loaded with young talent.
What’s the problem, then?
One could start off the ice, with Barclay Goodrow and Jacob Trouba maneuvered out of the organization despite no-trade clauses. There are times when the NHL rewards ruthlessness, however — see: Golden Knights, Vegas — so let’s focus on New York’s on-ice performance. The Rangers have dominated the NHL via Igor Shesterkin and an elite power play, while being an average even-strength team in recent seasons. That’s changed on multiple fronts.
It would be an oversimplification to blame Shesterkin’s middling save percentage. The Rangers have been a defensive mess while navigating an early injury to Chytil, a poor return to health from Ryan Lindgren and downright ordinary play from leaders like Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck. Shesterkin continues to be among league leaders in goals saved above expected (GSAx) in part because the Rangers give up so much.
Lindgren’s return disrupted the Adam Fox–K’Andre Miller top pair that had dominated flow of play to the tune of 65.1 percent of expected goals and a 14-8 lead in real goals. Lindgren’s body has been through a lot in recent seasons and, perhaps as a direct result, he hasn’t delivered the kind of results alongside Fox that he used to. Meanwhile, the Trouba trade didn’t magically fix the Rangers’ defensive woes. New York lost to Chicago on Monday, in part due to a giveaway by Zibanejad followed by a spat of puck-watching from Zibanejad and Lindgren.
Outlook: The fear in New York is that the Rangers’ youth movement has finally arrived and the veterans are injured, ailing or otherwise checked out. The Rangers have given up the fourth-most expected goals per minute this season, putting them in line with lottery teams like Anaheim, Montreal and San Jose. Their special teams have been good — particularly the PK — but New York was better than good on both fronts last season.
A team led by Artemi Panarin, Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière — a line that’s outscoring its opponents at five-on-five — and supplemented by Chris Kreider, Zibanejad and Reilly Smith should be able to win enough of its minutes to have success. One that’s done the same while also enjoying Cuylle and company on a dominant third line should find a way to the playoffs.
At this point, however, it’s hard to take them seriously as Stanley Cup contenders. They’re too dysfunctional, too messy defensively and have too many even-strength flaws. That should raise alarm bells given the clear Cup contention expectations this year, plus the risk of the Rangers’ contention window closing beyond 2024-25 because of the daunting cap crunch they face this summer.
Making the playoffs panic meter: 5/10
Ottawa Senators
Record: 13-13-2
What’s gone wrong: The Senators were supposed to take a big step forward this season.
They’ve been “supposed to” take a big step forward in a lot of seasons, mind you, but this time the reasons seemed to be more legitimate. Linus Ullmark, the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner, was meant to give Ottawa the safeguard it lacked in recent seasons. Instead, Senators fans recently named him the team’s most disappointing player so far this season.
The Senators appear to be giving up fewer quality scoring chances than they did in recent seasons — they’re sixth-best in terms of expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five — but Ullmark’s .903 save percentage is only a bit better than they got from Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg last season. On the surface, one contributor to Ullmark’s woes appears to be 22-year-old defenseman Jake Sanderson, who sports an ugly -14 rating despite solid underlying numbers. He hasn’t played like the star defender he has the potential to be.
The penalty kill is legitimately bad. Ranked seventh-worst in the league, Ottawa gives up the fourth-most shots per 60 — and a lot of that is from prime real estate. They’ve given up at least one power-play goal in eight of their last 11 games and the trend looks sustainable based on shot quantity and quality alike.
Outlook: There are worse long-term problems to have than Ottawa’s. Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson, Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are all in their prime years and are mostly delivering the quality of play worthy of their reputations. On a long enough timeline, there’s no way Sanderson will be outscored that badly on break-even shot metrics.
Ottawa also ranks top 10 in the NHL for controlling five-on-five shot attempts and expected goals, which provides legitimate optimism.
But it’s enormously concerning how often this young team loses its composure when adversity strikes. Whether through bad bounces or poor decisions against the flow of play, the Senators have shot themselves in the foot too many times this season. They have a better goal differential than five teams ahead of them in the East, including a team in playoff position, but resilience remains a concern until the Senators answer it with sustained, emphatic performance.
The Senators should stay competitive and are better positioned for a miracle climb back up the standings — based both on their underlying numbers and their roster quality — than, say, the Red Wings or Sabres. But they’ve dug themselves an early hole and we’ve already seen this movie end badly many times.
Making the playoffs panic meter: 7/10
Boston Bruins
Record: 15-12-3
What’s gone wrong: Well, they fired the 2023 Jack Adams-winning coach, didn’t they?
Jim Montgomery’s firing was the culmination of a series of problems. Jeremy Swayman’s contract uncertainty, the loss of Linus Ullmark and difficult, injury-impeded offseasons for Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak were co-collaborators in an awkward start. Through no fault of his own, Elias Lindholm is not Patrice Bergeron and will not come close to replicating Bergeron’s effectiveness in all three zones, while Nikita Zadorov, Boston’s other big-ticket free agent signing, has mostly been a flop too. Don Sweeney appears to have overestimated Lindholm and Zadorov’s impact. Both can help — perhaps just not as much as Boston hoped that they would.
The power play is the worst in the NHL, relying too heavily on Pastrnak’s one-timer. Pastrnak has been shooting at a pedestrian 10.3 percent on the power play and 5.6 percent at five-on-five — both figures the worst of his career by some distance — although he did score a power-play goal in Winnipeg during Boston’s 8-1 loss on Tuesday night.
The biggest problem of all is that Swayman is off to the worst start of his career. He’s given up eight goals more than expected, according to Evolving Hockey, after two seasons spent among league leaders. His .885 save percentage dramatically lags behind his career average (.914) and based on his prolonged offseason contract negotiations, it seems like there’s an easy out: Swayman missed camp and that’s why he’s been bad.
Split between Montgomery and Joe Sacco, the Bruins have been an above-average defensive team. Players have told Fluto Shinzawa that defensive improvements led to their early hot streak under Sacco — and the underlying numbers support that — but Boston gave up eight goals on Tuesday in all kinds of ways. At five-on-five, the Bruins were burned twice by pucks that should have gotten safely out of their zone but didn’t. The PK gave up three goals, while Swayman gave up a third-period stinker from a horrible angle. That’s a lot of freebies for a team that’s still a work in progress, despite its playoff spot.
Outlook: A four-game winning streak and a 7-3-0 record in Boston’s last 10 has lifted the Bruins to third place in the Atlantic Division — albeit with more games played than most of their rivals and the worst goal differential of a playoff team. Their blowout loss to the Jets implies there’s a lot of work to be done before Swayman has his groove back or the Bruins can control play against contending teams.
In the long run, betting on Pastrnak to shoot like Pastrnak seems like a decent idea. Marchand continues to be a dynamic presence, while most Bruins lines have an edge in shot attempts — particularly since Sacco took over. In some ways, it’s a victory for Boston that the bottom never truly fell out, despite the doom and gloom every year since Bergeron retired.
The Bruins aren’t trying to squeak into the playoffs, though, and there’s a legitimate case to be made that Boston is heading for the NHL’s mushy middle. It’s hard to look at the next wave of Bruins, whether it’s Lindholm, Pavel Zacha, Justin Brazeau, Morgan Geekie or otherwise, and see an obvious route back to the NHL’s elite.
Making the playoffs panic meter: 6/10
New York Islanders
Record: 11-12-7
What’s gone wrong: When the Islanders arrived in Vancouver for a game last month, their injury list was utterly shocking.
Adam Pelech, Alexander Romanov and Mike Reilly — the entire left side of the Isles’ blue line — was hurt. The entire left side of their defense! On top of that, New York was missing Mathew Barzal, its best forward, and Anthony Duclair, another top-six forward. The Islanders have arguably been the unluckiest team in the NHL injuries-wise.
Few teams can survive an onslaught of injuries like this, let alone the Islanders’ roster, which looked bubble-quality when healthy. And yet even with all these key absences, the Isles could be in a playoff spot if not for their struggles in a few key areas.
Let’s start with special teams: New York is the only team in the NHL that ranks bottom-five on the power-play (31st) and penalty kill (32nd). You can’t solely pin this on injuries because the Islanders’ penalty kill was dead last in the league last season too.
New York has also choked away a ton of standings points by blowing several third-period leads.
Noah Dobson scored 70 points and finished top 10 in Norris Trophy voting last season. He’s been a shadow of that this year, on pace for just 41 points and driving pedestrian two-way results. Bo Horvat has had trouble scoring without Barzal’s playmaking on his line, as the former Canucks captain only has seven goals in 30 games.
Outlook: Remarkably, the Islanders are still firmly in the playoff hunt despite how many things have gone wrong. They’re nipping at the heels of the Rangers, who appear to be completely falling apart on and off the ice. The Bruins are within reach because of their disastrous start too, although they’ve gotten on a roll lately.
New York could be on the verge of getting healthier: Barzal began skating on his own on Dec 6, while Duclair and Pelech have been skating with the team in non-contact jerseys this week. Those players’ potential return over the next few weeks could give this club a huge shot in the arm.
The special-teams woes are still concerning and you could argue the Rangers and Bruins have more talent on paper, but you can’t write the Islanders off yet, especially with Ilya Sorokin bouncing back as an upper-echelon starter and better health on the horizon.
Big picture, however, this team looks destined to be stuck in the mushy middle for years to come. Even if they do make the playoffs this season, does anyone believe they’re capable of anything more than a plucky first-round exit? The medium-term outlook is grim because their veterans continue getting older, the club’s cap situation is far from ideal and the prospect pool is weak.
Making the playoffs panic meter: 6.5/10
Detroit Red Wings
Record: 11-13-4
What’s gone wrong: Detroit’s scoring has collapsed compared to last season, which you could have seen coming from a mile away.
The Red Wings were one of the worst teams in the NHL last season at generating shots and scoring chances, but they ranked top 10 for five-on-five goals scored because they converted on more than 10 percent of their shots (the second-highest five-on-five shooting percentage in the NHL). That shooting percentage heater was never going to last — they were due for fewer bounces and have dearly paid the price this season.
|
Season
|
Goals For/60
|
Expected Goals For/60
|
Shooting %
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
2024-25
|
1.83 (31st)
|
2.08 (32nd)
|
7.8% (26th)
|
|
2023-24
|
2.7 (7th)
|
2.25 (29th)
|
10.1% (2nd)
|
Dylan Larkin’s line has produced at a steady clip, but the club’s secondary scoring has completely dried up. The Red Wings have mustered an appalling 1.35 goals per 60 at five-on-five when Larkin’s line is off the ice. They don’t have a single forward outside their top-line trio of Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat on pace for more than 35 points.
Heat map via HockeyViz
Detroit’s penalty kill is operating at a disastrous 67.5 percent clip, the second-worst mark in the NHL.
The Red Wings’ bottom-four defense featuring Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry, Justin Holl and Erik Gustafsson is problematic. Trading Jake Walman was an unforced error.
Outlook: It’s going to take a miracle for the Red Wings to make the playoffs without drastic changes.
They simply haven’t been above average in any area this season besides their power play and goaltending. And based on their roster flaws, it’s hard to imagine that significantly turning around.
Derek Lalonde deserves criticism for not squeezing more out of this team, but Steve Yzerman’s roster construction warrants scrutiny, too. A coaching change could help, but it won’t automatically solve the bigger-picture questions of how this franchise can assemble a playoff-caliber roster moving forward.
Making the playoffs panic meter: 10/10
Buffalo Sabres
Record: 11-14-4
What’s gone wrong: The worst part about trainwreck franchises is they often give their fans just enough hope to buy in for a split second that maybe they’re finally turning a corner.
On Nov. 24, Sabres fans woke up to their team in a playoff spot, sitting in third place in the Atlantic division with an 11-9-1 record. Buffalo had won seven of its last 10 games and was riding a three-game winning streak, with star sniper Tage Thompson’s imminent return from injury expected to give the team another major boost.
But then the Sabres did what sad organizations always do: They smashed those good vibes into smithereens and fell into a familiar, deep pit of hopelessness. It’s not just that Buffalo has lost eight games in a row, it’s the soul-crushing fashion of these defeats that’s most agonizing.
Why are they still struggling to win games? Buffalo’s 14.1 percent power play ranks 30th in the NHL. Dylan Cozens, on pace for less than 40 points, and Jack Quinn, on pace for less than 20 points, have been colossal disappointments.
The Sabres boast plenty of puck-moving and offensive talent on the back end, but they’re missing a reliable, high-end defensive stopper.
Buffalo’s defensive metrics are below-average across the board and the club’s not getting enough saves when Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen needs a night off — Devon Levi and James Reimer have combined for just three wins in 10 games.
Outlook: The Sabres need to play at a near 100-point pace the rest of the way to hit 91 points, which was the mark that helped the Capitals win the final wild-card spot in the East last year. That’s a tall order not only because this roster is flawed but because years of losing have eroded this group’s culture and resilience.
What reason is there for fans to believe that this core can pull off an against-all-odds charge back into the playoffs instead of folding under the first sign of pressure like usual?
Zooming out, the Sabres have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL, which means brighter days should be ahead, but how many years has that been touted as the silver lining? When you’ve gone 13 straight seasons without a playoff berth, you stop believing that the light at the end of the tunnel is real, even though it might be.
Making the playoffs panic meter: 9.5/10
(Top photo of Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson and Brady Tkachuk: Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography via Getty Images)
