'No more rookies anymore': Broncos' playoff hopes could hinge on draft class's growth

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Courtland Sutton, the Denver Broncos wide receiver who is a veteran of the team’s rivalry with the Kansas City Chiefs, was asked this week about the challenge of facing a Steve Spagnuolo defense. In doing so, he highlighted a simple truth that helps explain the success the two-time defending Super Bowl champions are once again experiencing during an 8-0 start.

“There are a lot of really good players on that defense; really good players that have played a lot of ball together,” Sutton said. “I think that’s the biggest thing that I would say. They have a lot of really good players that have played a lot of ball together and it allows them to play fast.”

The Chiefs this season returned nine of the 11 defensive starters from last year’s Super Bowl-winning team. Eight of those nine were also on the Chiefs’ championship team in 2022, meaning the bulk of the unit has played together for three or more seasons — all with Spagnuolo as the coordinator.

It’s a stark contrast with a Broncos offense that could be giving significant snaps Sunday to four rookies on offense: quarterback Bo Nix, running back Audric Estimé and wide receivers Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele. Alex Forsyth could make his fifth career start at center. Or it could be Luke Wattenberg, if he is activated from injured reserve after practicing fully this week, making his sixth career start there. Only three of the 11 starters on Denver’s offense — Sutton, left tackle Garett Bolles and right guard Quinn Meinerz — have played together for more than two seasons.

If the Broncos (5-4) ultimately make a charge to the playoffs — a quest that would get a big boost with an upset in Kansas City — it will be in large part because a young offense still trying to find its way arrives ahead of schedule.

Sean Payton is counting on it.

“We say this: ‘There’s no more rookies anymore,’” the veteran coach said recently. “We’re (nine) games in. As a team, we need to continue to grow. The Peloton doesn’t have room to wait for the slackers. It’s like, ‘Let’s go.’ So far, we haven’t had to do that, and we’ll continue to keep that pace.”

This Broncos rookie class, a group Payton has raved about since the start of the offseason, will ultimately be judged by the play of Nix, the first-round quarterback. His progress over the past month has been mirrored by his rookie receivers. Since veteran Josh Reynolds went on the injured reserve list in Week 6 with a finger injury — he is now eligible to be activated from IR, but the team hasn’t opened his practice window yet — Vele (137 yards) and Franklin (135 yards) have been Denver’s second- and third-leading receivers behind Sutton (275).

“There’s no more excuses of, ‘I’m not ready,’ or ‘I’m not comfortable,’” Franklin said. “I know it kind of sounds (obvious), but I just know what I’m doing out there. I’m playing faster, seeing things quicker, feeling more comfortable.”

TD, Troy Franklin.

First career TD for the rook.

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/CuAGYl3jS4

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 13, 2024

The deep connection between Nix and Franklin is one element of the offense the Broncos are still trying to fortify. The quarterback has thrown a team-high seven passes of 25 or more air yards in the direction of his former college teammate, according to TruMedia. The duo has connected on only one of those attempts — a 29-yard gain in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers. They have come tantalizingly close to a handful of deep connections. There was a drop by Franklin in the end zone against the Raiders in Week 5, a ball Nix said was overthrown. Franklin was unable to haul in an on-target pass along the sideline from Nix on a third-and-short play against the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago. In last week’s loss to the Ravens, Franklin beat zero coverage on a fourth-and-4 play along the sideline and was wide open in the end zone, but Nix’s throw was just out of reach.

The two players had significant success with those deep connections during the prior two seasons at Oregon, but Nix said this week the chemistry doesn’t carry over as easily to the NFL as they might have expected. It’s a new connection that has to be formed, even if they are intimately familiar with each other’s games.

“With me and him right now, it’s just a level of overthinking it a little bit, I think,” Nix said. “The pressure and the ambition of, ‘We’ve already done it. We have to do it again. It should be easy for us.’ That’s not the case. You’re going against different guys. You’re playing in a different system. You’re thinking a little bit too much. I’m also not going to make excuses. We have to hit them when they’re open. We practice well. We do a good job of making sure we get the reps in practice, and I think it’s only a matter of time before the explosives and the big ones are being hit again. It’s good to be able to have those other guys like Court and all those guys to make explosive plays at the same time. You can really kind of spread the ball out and distribute it well. I just think we have to stop overthinking it.”

Franklin agreed.

“It’s getting all the thinking out of the equation and going out there and playing football,” he said.

Another big question for Denver’s rookie class, beginning with Sunday’s game, is whether Estimé will move into a larger backfield role. He has shown burst for an offense in need of it (6.3-yard average on 15 rush attempts), but his opportunities thus far have been limited by an early-season foot injury and a fumbling issue that began in the preseason and has included two (one lost) among his limited set of carries. After the second of those fumbles, which came in a Week 7 win against the New Orleans Saints, Estimé spent a week carrying a football around the team facility, an assignment Payton described as a “present” from fellow running back Javonte Williams.

Payton has hinted that Estimé could see more carries this week, but it’s clear his ability to secure the ball will go a long way toward determining how much of a role he’ll have. The coach said improving the team’s minus-1 turnover differential through nine games is a huge priority for the second half of the season.

“It’s something we emphasize and it’s easier — you get their attention when they’ve had a couple of fumbles,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said of Estimé, the fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame. “He’s working hard on it. Obviously, if it’s something that continues, it’s going to be a bigger problem, but he’s aware of it and he’ll be detailing his ball security. I think we’ll be all right there.”

Payton might not consider his first-year players to be rookies at this stage, but the reality is each week is going to bring first-time experiences for a sizable chunk of Denver’s offensive personnel. Take Sunday, when Nix and Forsyth or Wattenberg will be at quarterback and center against Kansas City All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones for the first time, a backfield wrecking ball with the ability to line up at all spots on the line of scrimmage, throwing a wrinkle into protection plans. Nix and his center will have to communicate their plan for Jones and the rest of Kansas City’s stout defense at the line of scrimmage above the din of one of the loudest crowds in the NFL at Arrowhead Stadium.

“I love it,” Nix said this week. “This is the epitome of why you want to play in the NFL. You want to play against these defenses. You want to play against these legendary coaches. You want to play against these (future) Hall of Fame quarterbacks. When you get to play in this kind of matchup, it’s much better than playing, maybe, a team that you know you have the advantage over. … The mindset and the attitude going in with a tough game, I think that’s the most important part. You want to play in these big games. You want to play the tough ones because if they were all easy, everybody could do it.”

The young Broncos on offense will get another chance to grow up Sunday. And Denver’s hopes — of an upset in Kansas City; of a playoff berth in January — will largely hinge on how fast this group can graduate from NFL adolescence.