What do Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Real Madrid, Juventus, Inter, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich have in common?
Along with Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz, they are the only sides across Europe’s top five leagues to remain unbeaten away from home. That might not be a massive deal for most of that group after only five or six games. But for Forest, it is.
Even if Nuno Espirito Santo’s side lose at Arsenal on Saturday, going seven games — including wins at Sheffield United and Burnley last season — without a defeat away from the City Ground shows a major problem is being addressed.
During their first two seasons back in the top flight, Forest won only five away games. During the 2022-23 campaign, a 1-0 win over Southampton was their only away win. Towards the end of that first season, Steve Cooper sought to turn a negative into a positive by trying to explain Forest’s struggle for away wins by suggesting it was because the atmosphere at the City Ground was such an asset.
“It pains me to think that we’ve given them (fans) so little. The support home and away has been unconditional. We don’t take it for granted, we’re not entitled to it. We’re just really grateful for it,” Cooper said in a pre-match press conference in May 2023.
But Nuno has succeeded where Cooper struggled. And in the opening months of his first full season in charge, Nuno appears to have solved more than one of the problems that had previously held them back.
Away form is the most obvious one. Only Liverpool (13) have claimed more away points than Forest (11), who can include a 1-0 success at Anfield among a respectable list of results.
It is a world away from last season when only relegated sides Burnley (14), Luton Town (10) and Sheffield United (six) claimed fewer away points than Forest (16). Or from 2022-23 when Forest had the worst away record in the division, managing only eight points.
This weekend, Forest face one of the most difficult Premier League away games: an Arsenal side yet to lose at the Emirates this season.
Forest will be looking to go unbeaten in their first six away games in a top-flight campaign for the first time since 1995-96. But if Forest do taste defeat, it would be no disgrace. Given that their subsequent away games are at Manchester United, Manchester City and Brentford, there is a chance Forest could slip up at some point in the coming weeks.
But Forest will now at least head to these places believing they are capable of winning. It is a major step in the right direction. Previously, defeat would almost have been expected; now there is hope and belief.
They have got to this point by solving a few other issues that had become factors in Forest’s previous struggles. Everything feels interlinked.
Many Forest fans will have been able to recite the numbers involved in Forest’s away-day struggles before reading this article. And they will also have been equally familiar with the statistics surrounding set pieces.
Forest conceded 22 goals from set pieces last season, the worst in the division, with Luton next on 19. Forest also only scored seven times from set pieces, with only Sheffield United (six), Crystal Palace (five) and Burnley (five) managing fewer. It was also a major issue in 2022-23 when Forest conceded 16 set-piece goals, which was the second-worst record in the division, behind Bournemouth (21).
But what might have gone under the radar, is that Forest (five), along with Aston Villa, have scored the most set-piece goals in the Premier League this season, most recently when Murillo scored a header from an Anthony Elanga free kick against Newcastle.
They have conceded only twice from free kicks or corners — with only Liverpool, Brentford, Manchester City and Palace having been tighter at the back (all conceding one).
The £11million ($14m in today’s exchange rates) summer capture of Nikola Milenkovic from Fiorentina has made a real difference. The Serbia international was signed precisely because of his track record of aerial dominance.
Prior to joining Forest, Milenkovic had been performing at an elite level when it came to heading and making interceptions. Milenkovic won 79.9 per cent of his aerial duels last season in Serie A, with only Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk (81.4) winning a higher percentage in Europe’s top five leagues (among players to have contested at least 100 headers).
That rate has been over 70 per cent for six of his seven seasons at Fiorentina. At Forest, that percentage has dropped slightly to 65.1, but his physical presence has still made a vast difference, providing the perfect foil for Murillo, who is a front-foot defender.
Forest used eight different players in the centre of defence last season. Since the opening day draw with Bournemouth — when Milenkovic was suspended and Willy Boly played — Milenkovic and Murillo have been the centre-back pairing for 10 consecutive games.
Nuno has been impressed by how Milenkovic won the respect of his fellow players in the dressing room, with his desire to constantly improve and to expect the same of those around him.
And Murillo looks a better player for it, with Milenkovic offering instructions and guidance to the entire Forest back four — which has also seen consistency in the full-back positions, where Ola Aina and Alex Moreno have started the last eight games.
Even despite the 3-1 defeat to Newcastle, the xG for opposition sides against Forest this season has been just 11.2 — only Liverpool (9.3) have a lower total. The 10 goals Forest have conceded is again bettered only by Liverpool (six). And only Liverpool (six) and Manchester United (five) have kept more clean sheets than Forest (four).
Including stoppage time, Forest have been behind for just 102 minutes and 34 seconds in the Premier League this season, less time than any other side.
For two seasons, the most significant numbers all underlined why Forest struggled. We are just 11 games into this campaign, but the numbers now suggest Nuno is turning things around when it comes to Forest’s most pressing issues.
(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
