The first College Football Playoff rankings were revealed Tuesday evening, with the Buckeyes coming in as the No. 2 team — which would make them the No. 5 seed.
Ohio State can earn a first-round bye only if it wins the Big Ten title game. Because Oregon is the No. 1 team, it has the Big Ten’s projected bye in the bracket for now.
The Athletic’s projections model gives Ohio State a 98 percent chance to make the Playoff, a 24 percent chance to win the Big Ten and a 67 percent chance to host a Playoff game. A lot could change between now and the final reveal on Dec. 8, but here are a few thoughts on Ohio State’s Playoff outlook after the selection committee’s first Top 25 and the Buckeyes’ win at Penn State last weekend.
Why the 5th seed is advantageous
One of the least surprising parts of the rankings reveal was seeing Ohio State as the fifth seed in the bracket.
The Buckeyes earned a big win at Penn State, which is ranked No. 6, making it one of the best data points for any contender. They’ve played two top-six matchups, losing by one point to No. 1 Oregon and beating the Nittany Lions. It all puts Ohio State in the best position of any one-loss team, even Georgia.
Winning out in the rest of the regular season and capturing the Big Ten title would put the Buckeyes in position to grab the No. 1 seed. But there’s an argument to be made that the fifth seed is the best spot in the Playoff field.
According to the first rankings, Ohio State would host Boise State in the first round of the Playoff. The Buckeyes would likely be a double-digit favorite in that game. With a win they would play fourth seed BYU, the top-ranked team in the Big 12.
Nothing is guaranteed, but that’s as nice of a draw as Ohio State could ask for. Though Oregon has a bye in the bracket, it would match up with the winner of Tennessee–Indiana, both of whom are ranked ahead of BYU, which is ninth in the actual rankings despite being the fourth seed in the bracket.
There’s no doubt Ohio State wants to win the Big Ten title and get a bye to the quarterfinals. But winning out in the regular season and losing in the conference title game wouldn’t be the end of the world, especially if the Buckeyes can snag the No. 5 seed.
Most important game: vs. Indiana
Nobody would have ever believed Indiana would be Ohio State’s most important game in November for Playoff purposes, but it is.
New coach Curt Cignetti has turned the Hoosiers into the best story in college football right now. They haven’t played a ranked opponent yet, but they are winning by an average of 32.9 points and are 9-0 for the first time in school history.
They are above the Buckeyes in the Big Ten standings and the last ranked hurdle Ohio State will have to cross before a rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes are expected to cruise by Purdue at home and Northwestern at Wrigley Field to set up what should be a win-and-get-in matchup with Indiana.
The season wouldn’t be over if Ohio State lost to Indiana. As long as the Buckeyes beat Michigan to end the season, they would still likely get in as a two-loss team. But Ohio State’s best outcome is to hand Indiana its first loss and go to Indianapolis in a win-win situation. Win the title and get a bye; lose and likely get the fifth seed.
| Date | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|
|
Aug. 31
|
 Akron |
W 52-6
|
|
Sept. 7
|
 Western Michigan |
W 56-0
|
|
Sept. 21
|
 Marshall |
W 49-14
|
|
Sept. 28
|
 at Michigan State |
W 38-7
|
|
Oct. 5
|
 Iowa |
W 35-7
|
|
Oct. 12
|
 at Oregon |
L 32-31
|
|
Oct. 26
|
 Nebraska |
W 21-17
|
|
Nov. 2
|
 at Penn State |
W 20-13
|
|
Nov. 9
|
 Purdue |
|
|
Nov. 16
|
 at Northwestern |
|
|
Nov. 23
|
 Indiana |
|
|
Nov. 30
|
 Michigan |
|
Team to root for: Georgia
Hear me out. This is a hypothetical situation based around Ohio State losing in the Big Ten title game. If that’s the case, Ohio State is going to badly want the fifth seed, and that means it needs as many two-loss at-large teams as possible.
It needs Oregon to win the Big Ten, BYU to win the Big 12, Miami to win the ACC and Georgia to win the SEC.
Why Georgia? Because, if the Bulldogs win out, including the SEC title game, they will have wins over Texas (potentially twice), Ole Miss and Tennessee. A win over Tennessee will make the Vols a two-loss team, and Ohio State would stay ahead of a two-loss Texas because the Buckeyes’ wins will be better. Ohio State would have wins at Penn State and vs. Indiana; Texas would have wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. It’s not close.
It’s also hard to see the ACC title game loser being ranked ahead of a Big Ten runner-up Ohio State. As for the Big 12, I think there’s a chance it gets only one team in, so there’s not much to worry about there.
Ohio State needs to finish the regular season 11-1 and root for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs to win the SEC.
What if Ohio State loses to Indiana?
If Ohio State loses to Indiana, it needs to root for as many multi-loss teams as possible and also be ready to go on the road. Indiana would presumably be above Ohio State, along with the SEC runner-up and maybe even Notre Dame. That’s three of the four home games locked up.
Ohio State should still make the Playoff at 10-2, boosted by the win at Penn State, but a loss to Indiana (or Michigan) would take away the Buckeyes’ ability to control their own destiny.
My prediction
Ohio State is going to blow out Purdue and Northwestern and head into the Indiana game with momentum. Indiana will still be undefeated after beating Michigan. Even with an idle week before coming to Columbus, I don’t think the Hoosiers will beat Ohio State on the road.
The Buckeyes win by double digits and then cruise past a bad Michigan team to end the regular season.
The Big Ten title game is where I’m torn. I left the field in Eugene thinking Ohio State would beat the Ducks in a rematch. I wavered slightly before the Penn State game but will stick with that for now. I have confidence Ohio State’s defense will play better against Oregon in a rematch with the changes coordinator Jim Knowles made after that loss. Caleb Downs has been more involved, the blitz percentage is up and the secondary is playing better as a whole.
In this case, I think Ohio State earns the No. 1 seed and plays a quarterfinal in the Rose Bowl.
(Photo of Quinshon Judkins and Will Howard: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
