Just when it seemed like the Edmonton Oilers were taking a step forward, they turned around and took a giant leap back.
A dominant win over the Pittsburgh Penguins preceded a comeback victory in Detroit. Goaltending looked superb. The offence showed signs of breaking out. The Oilers were trending toward the Stanley Cup contender they’re supposed to be.
And then that Columbus game happened.
Connor McDavid getting injured on the first shift on Monday and leaving the game proved to be a bad omen. The Oilers played their worst game of the season. They didn’t defend or get saves. They couldn’t score, either. To make matters worse, McDavid returned to Edmonton for further evaluation on his lower-body injury, which means he’ll miss more game action. Winger Drake Caggiula and centre Noah Philp have been recalled from AHL Bakersfield.
To say the Oilers hobbled to the 10-game mark at 4-5-1 is putting it charitably. They’re two wins better than they were at this point last season. So, there’s that — and a little more to be optimistic about, too. But overall, there’s no doubt about it: This group has largely underwhelmed.
Here’s what I’ve seen through 10 games.
Measuring McDavid’s impact
Through 10 games — or nine contests and 37 seconds — McDavid is off to the worst start of his NHL career with just three goals and seven assists. It’s the type of production most players can only dream of, and he’s still tied with Leon Draisaitl for the team lead in scoring with 10 points.
Oh, how things could have been much different for him — and, by extension, the team.
McDavid has scored on 10 percent of his 30 shots, the lowest success rate of his 10 campaigns in the big leagues. More telling is that regular linemate and last season’s scoring dynamo Zach Hyman hasn’t found the net on any of his 28 shots after finishing at an 18.6 percent clip in his 54-goal campaign. Hyman has had tons of good looks early on.
To make matters worse, McDavid has just two points — and the Oilers just four goals — on the power play.
But don’t forget that McDavid had a poor statistical start a year ago while battling an injury that caused him to sit out two games. He notched 10 points through his first eight contests, but then went pointless for the next three — which was the cutoff point for the coaching change. After Kris Knoblauch replaced Jay Woodcroft, McDavid recorded 122 points in 65 games — not too shabby.
It sure helped that Hyman was finishing off McDavid’s passes. That’ll surely come soon enough considering Hyman has 5.72 expected goals in all situations, per Natural Stat Trick. No goals might seem to indicate otherwise, but it’s not like Hyman forgot how to score.
McDavid was due to break out, and it goes without saying the Oilers are going to miss him while he’s sidelined.
From a historical perspective, it’s too bad for McDavid that the so-called slump in production has come early in the season again. He’s now missed out on becoming the third-youngest player and the third-fastest to reach 1,000 points. He needed to get to that mark by Monday’s game to best Steve Yzerman (27 years and 291 days) and Mike Bossy (656 games).
McDavid has 992 points in 655 contests and will have to settle for being No. 4 in both categories. Naturally, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux hold down the top two spots.
Where’s the offence?
It isn’t just Hyman and, to a lesser extent, McDavid struggling through offensive challenges early on. The list is a lengthy one.
Draisaitl leads the way with six goals, doubling McDavid and Evan Bouchard. Of the players receiving at least semi-regular top-six shifts, Jeff Skinner has scored twice, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has one tally, and Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin are goalless.
The schedule is an eighth of the way complete. Time’s ticking here.
Just like last season when the Oilers had scoring difficulties early, their luck is bound to change. They’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick. Their 58 Corsi for percentage trails only the Carolina Hurricanes. Their 55 expected goals percentage is fifth.
Yet they’ve been outscored 21-14 at five-on-five, a 40 percent goal share that ranks them fourth from the bottom. It’s not hard to figure out why: a league-worst 4.9 shooting percentage, which factors greatly into a 30th-ranked .949 PDO.
Even the slightest uptick in offensive effectiveness should go a long way. The same goes for the power play, where the Oilers have converted four of 29 opportunities. Two of those goals were scored by Mattias Ekholm, who’s on the second unit.
Arvidsson replaced McDavid on the top unit in Columbus, leaving Adam Henrique to fill his spot with the second group. The power play’s been a work in progress, and that’ll likely remain the case without McDavid.
Wanted: More saves
Stuart Skinner had his two best starts of the season last week, first helping the Oilers secure a point against Carolina before posting a 27-save shutout against Pittsburgh.
Monday’s performance in Columbus wasn’t close to good enough. Even though he didn’t have much help in front of him, Skinner allowed six goals on 25 shots. That represented his second poor outing of the season following getting pulled in the season opener.
The biggest issue with Skinner has been consistency from game to game, something that isn’t all that dissimilar from many of his teammates. It’s just more noticeable and impactful coming from someone playing the most important position in the sport.
Skinner has allowed 2.89 goals more than expected at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. Only eight goalies have been worse in that regard.
Finding Nurse a partner
The Oilers have been porous defensively, allowing 35 goals in 10 games. That extends well beyond goaltending.
The most glaring issue on the defence corps is the one that was the biggest question mark entering the season: Darnell Nurse’s partner on the second pair. Simply put, the coaching staff haven’t found the solution, which means management is on the clock.
What a ride it’s been for Nurse, who played almost exclusively with Cody Ceci from January 2022 until the second round of the playoffs in May.
The two likeliest partners for Nurse well into the offseason were Ceci and Philip Broberg. Nurse and Broberg played together in the Stanley Cup Final. But Ceci was dealt to San Jose for cap reasons and Broberg wasn’t retained after signing an offer sheet with St. Louis.
That left Ty Emberson, the return for Ceci who had 30 games of NHL experience before this season, as Nurse’s new partner heading into camp. Nurse managing an injury limited them to one preseason game together. The experiment didn’t even make it through the season opener.
Since then, Nurse has been rotating through Troy Stecher, Travis Dermott and even Brett Kulak for the last game. He’s had to play both sides of the ice, too. That’s to say nothing of having Ekholm as a new partner on the penalty kill.
Nurse has now played more with Kulak at five-on-five (22:10) than with Emberson (14:42). The underlying numbers are markedly better with Kulak compared to with Emberson, Stecher or Dermott. They’re almost as good with Ekholm in limited minutes — just 10:16.
It’s clear Nurse needs an established partner. It’s management’s biggest task between now and the trade deadline — and the sooner, the better.
A bottom-six shake-up
For all the issues the top six has had scoring goals, the Oilers aren’t getting much out of the bottom half of the forward ranks either.
Offensively, Henrique, Connor Brown and Corey Perry are the only players to have scored a single goal. But perhaps other than Perry, the group has lacked any real identity or spark.
Henrique, Brown and Mattias Janmark — a line that was so good in the Stanley Cup Final — are getting crushed whether they’re together or apart. Skinner and Podkolzin have rotated in the middle six and have been effective only in spurts regardless of where they’ve played — Skinner with some offensive pushes and Podkolzin with his forechecking. Derek Ryan is the least-used player and, despite a prominent role on the penalty kill last season, ranks sixth among forwards in short-handed ice time.
The injections of Caggiula and Philp could be most welcome. Caggiula showcased his speed in the preseason, whereas Philp was positionally sound and excellent in the faceoff circle.
The Oilers need a jolt of something. It’ll have to start with those two.
(Top photo: Brian Bradshaw Sevald / Imagn Images)
