Late in the second quarter Saturday, Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold committed his third turnover of the night, this one a pass toward the sideline that bounced short and then off the intended receiver before being recovered by Tennessee after a mad scramble.
Arnold, a redshirt freshman and former five-star, appeared for only one more play the rest of the night, a handoff, as the Sooners fell 25-15 at home.
A few hours later, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson threw a pair of interceptions at BYU. The Wildcats’ final three possessions all resulted in turnovers on downs, and K-State lost 38-9, stumbling early in a season that began with Big 12 title hopes.
A frustrating evening for both programs was made more so by imagining what might have been.
Former K-State starting quarterback Will Howard is enjoying success at Ohio State, and former Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel is leading Oregon, with both teams looking like College Football Playoff contenders.
Months later, it’s easy to point to their success in new places and the growing pains or failures of their replacements and wonder if more should have been done to keep them. Or if both programs should have kept their more experienced passer and let the chips fall where they may with highly rated prospects who didn’t want to wait long to get their turns.
But in the new era of college football, where no position is more valuable or transfers more often than quarterback, keeping two players of a certain caliber is rarely possible. Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers at Texas is an anomaly.
In reality, the scenarios are far more complex than they appear on the surface.
A season ago, there was a clear understanding at Kansas State: Howard, who led the Wildcats to the 2022 Big 12 title, would be the starter. Johnson, a four-star Kansas native and the No. 9 quarterback in the 2023 class, would be the backup. And Howard would be headed to the NFL after the season.
But as any human can attest, sometimes life’s plans go awry.
Howard struggled early, and coach Chris Klieman turned to Johnson at midseason. He played both quarterbacks, leaning on Johnson’s lightning speed and Howard’s experienced and more refined abilities as a passer.
At the end of an 8-4 regular season, Howard entered the transfer portal as a graduate transfer but also entered his name for consideration in the NFL Draft. For six weeks, he was in limbo. He’d visited USC, but Miller Moss’ stellar bowl performance made starting for Lincoln Riley there a near-impossibility.
Then Ohio State’s offense cratered behind Devin Brown in a 14-3 Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri. Less than a week later, Howard was headed to Columbus, where he won the starting job this offseason.
Gabriel’s two seasons at Oklahoma were similar. Once Arnold committed and enrolled, it was understood that Gabriel, who had started his career at UCF, would be headed to the NFL, too.
Gabriel led the Sooners to a 10-2 record and win over rival Texas, but after the 2023 season, the NFL Draft Advisory Committee examined Gabriel’s film and gave him a seventh round/undrafted grade.
“I was just devastated, Gabriel told The Athletic this offseason.
Oklahoma’s coaches were publicly supportive of Gabriel staying, but the writing was on the wall.
From Gabriel and Johnson’s perspectives, it makes no sense to stick around at a program and compete for a job when there are “guaranteed” starting spots to step into and money to be earned elsewhere.
And for as glorified as it may be to be a “team player,” who wouldn’t want to leave for a program that clearly sees you as their answer at the roster’s most important position?
Staying at their current schools means likely undercutting their own NFL value, too. A quarterback can’t cement his status as an NFL Draft pick if he’s stuck on the bench behind an underclassman. And some collectives can only spend so much on one position.
“Maybe we could pay a guy $800,000 or whatever to stay and do nothing,” said a person briefed on Kansas State’s roster decision-making, granted anonymity for their candor. “But if you have that money, are you going to use it on a backup? Or are you going to spend it on an impact receiver? Or a big-time edge rusher or an offensive tackle?”
Kansas State and Oklahoma lost offensive coordinators, too. Oklahoma’s Jeff Lebby left to become Mississippi State’s head coach. K-State’s Collin Klein went to Texas A&M.
At Ohio State, Howard is 11th nationally in passer rating. Johnson is 78th (he also rushed for 110 yards in a win over Arizona). Gabriel, who has started more than 50 college games, is ninth nationally in passer rating. Arnold is 100th. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables announced Monday he’s turning to a true freshman in Michael Hawkins Jr.
For coaches like Klieman and Venables, sticking with a more experienced quarterback might sound good in the short term, but blue-chip quarterback recruits are hard to sign everywhere. If a program gets one, it’s necessary to at least attempt to build around them, just like an NFL team does after drafting a first-round quarterback.
Sticking with an older player who they mostly know — the good and the bad — runs the risk of a program never finding out the potential of a more promising young player in the era of perpetual free agency.
And coaches would be committing to one year of what’s known rather than rolling the dice on improving the program over the next two to three years and leveraging that success into a better roster through high school recruiting or the transfer portal.
There is often fan angst about getting to see the hyped young prospect as well, along with worry that he will transfer. If Johnson hadn’t been given a clear path to the field at the school he chose out of high school, who’s to say he wouldn’t have looked for one under Klein or elsewhere?
If you can have only one, the clear choice is potential and development within the program, rather than attempting to mine the portal for a new transfer quarterback every season. How’s that working out for Notre Dame?
Roster management in college football is more complicated, with more stakeholders and variables, than ever. K-State and Oklahoma are just the latest examples of teams trying to balance awkward offseason decisions at quarterback. More choices like they made are coming.
It’s easy to pine for what they once had and easy to say they made a mistake.
Reality is simply more complex.
(Top photo of Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold getting tackled by Tennessee defensive lineman Tyre West: David Stacy / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
