No. 9 Ole Miss’ College Football Playoff hopes almost certainly ended Saturday with a 24-17 loss at Florida.
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels fell to 8-3, with all three losses coming in SEC play. The context made Ole Miss’ latest defeat surprising. The Rebels earned one of their biggest wins ever in their last game — an 18-point win over Georgia — and had an open date to prepare for a Florida team that was 5-5.
But on Saturday Ole Miss’ elite defensive front had one of its worst games of the year. The Rebels missed two opportunities to sack Florida quarterback DJ Lagway on one first-half drive. He escaped both and converted passes that led to an eventual touchdown. A Rebels rushing defense that entered the weekend No. 2 nationally allowed a season-high 184 yards, including Montrell Johnson Jr.’s go-ahead touchdown with 7:40 remaining.
The Gators celebrated their first win over a top-10 team since coach Billy Napier’s debut, a 29-26 win over No. 7 Utah in the 2022 season opener. Florida also clinched bowl eligibility with the win.
Ole Miss hit its ceiling
The expanded 12-team playoff is supposed to benefit teams like the Rebels. Ole Miss no longer needed to win the SEC or even make the league’s championship to make the field. Going 10-2 in a Power Two conference would be enough. Ole Miss went all-in with a transfer-heavy roster and an excellent, veteran quarterback in Jaxson Dart to maximize this one-year window.
It shut Saturday.
Tight losses to Kentucky and LSU eliminated any wiggle room for Ole Miss, despite the Rebels’ massive victory over the Bulldogs. An injury (or re-injury) to star receiver Tre Harris damaged Ole Miss’ hopes Saturday, and Dart threw two interceptions in the final minute and a half to end the game — and Ole Miss’ playoff hopes.
This a reminder of how quickly this sport changes
In mid-September, this game looked like a fascinating coaching matchup for very different reasons. Napier’s job seemed in jeopardy, and the expectation within the industry was that Kiffin would be a top potential target for Florida.
Instead, Saturday’s result vindicated the decision by Gators athletic director Scott Stricklin to give Napier a fourth season, despite a then-record of 15-18. It also leads to more questions about Kiffin, who has yet to break through from good to great.
Ole Miss’ play-calling deserves scrutiny
Kiffin’s Rebels are aggressive; only 14 power-conference teams had more fourth-down conversions entering Saturday than Ole Miss (12). But the Rebels missed on two of their first four attempts.
In the first quarter, Ole Miss faced fourth and 1 at the Florida 11. The Rebels sent a direct snap to JJ Pegues, a 325-pound defensive tackle Ole Miss uses for short-yardage offense. His rush to the right was stuffed.
Ole Miss tried a similar play in the third quarter on fourth and 1 at the Florida 10. The Gators snuffed that one out, too, as part of Ole Miss’ 0-for-3 start in the red zone. Even if analytics approve of the decision to go for it, the plays themselves were questionable, and the results were costly.
This feels like the biggest win of Billy Napier’s tenure
Last week’s win over No. 22 LSU was notable because it was Napier’s second victory over a rival in two-plus seasons and a triumph over a ranked opponent. But the Tigers have been sputtering.
There were no extenuating circumstances Saturday. Florida won with the kind of complementary football Napier stresses. The defense was sound. The run game was solid. Lagway, again, looked like an elite freshman quarterback. And special teams delivered with a recovery of a muffed punt.
Even if you want to minimize the LSU win, Napier has now earned back-to-back victories over ranked SEC teams. That’s clear proof-of-concept progress that will help off-field momentum leading into his fourth season.
(Photo: Doug Engle / Gainesville Sun)
