The latest game for the New England Patriots went like so many other recent ones have. Drake Maye was really good, offering promise of better days ahead. But at the same time, pretty much everything else on the team was a cause for concern.
So how do you weigh those conflicting trajectories? Getting a franchise quarterback in Maye was the most important piece of this rebuild, and you could certainly argue that as long as you leave the season feeling good about him (which the Patriots do), then the year was a success. But can you really call the season a success if everything around Maye has been a problem, there are few obvious fixes in sight and they again finish with only three or four wins?
Coach Jerod Mayo has been asked on multiple occasions over the last nine months how he’d define success, and he has yet to give a clear answer. He wants the team to improve. He wants them to be tough to play against down the stretch. But the details of how they get there still feel murky.
So with six games left this season, let’s try to pin down what exactly a good first year of this rebuild would look like for Mayo and de facto general manager Eliot Wolf’s team.
That, of course, needs to start with the rookie class.
Receiver and second-round pick Ja’Lynn Polk is having a historically bad season for someone drafted that high and is already significantly behind the meager rookie seasons even N’Keal Harry and Tyquan Thornton put together for the Patriots. Behind him, third-round pick Caedan Wallace couldn’t get on the field when he was healthy, and it’s still unclear when he’ll return from an ankle injury. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Javon Baker got benched Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams once he finally touched the ball for the second and third times this season.
Here’s where all Patriots WRs and TEs since 2000 ranked in EPA/play their rookie season (minimum of 20 targets).
Notice the gap at the bottom between Tyquan Thornton and Ja’Lynn Polk. pic.twitter.com/yVsGZpJGeP
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) November 18, 2024
For this season to be deemed a success, you’ve got to come out of your eight-person draft class feeling good about more than Maye — even if quarterback is by far the most important spot to have hit on.
Because they spurned trade offers from other teams to move up, the front office can take credit for picking Maye even if the plan was always to draft whichever of the top three quarterbacks fell to them. And the coaching staff can take credit for developing Maye even if there’s a chance he was always going to be this good regardless of the system.
But how can there be confidence in the Patriots’ plan to draft and develop when everyone else from their 2024 draft class is struggling? So while Maye has been great and in many ways exceeded lofty expectations, a truly successful season will involve seeing more from the rest of the draft class over the final six games. Maybe that means Polk getting involved and cutting back on the penalties. Or maybe it means Wallace returning and offering signs he can be the Patriots’ right tackle of the future.
That leads us to another area of concern.
For the Patriots to be pleased with the 2024 season, they’d undoubtedly like to see someone besides Mike Onwenu look like a legitimate starter on the offensive line for 2025. That could be Cole Strange returning from his absence to play well down the stretch, Wallace coming back from injury and looking solid or fourth-round rookie Layden Robinson taking on a bigger role. If New England can enter the offseason only needing two or three new starters on the O-line, that would be progress — and an easier-to-fix situation than the way things stand.
But the franchise’s struggles to draft and develop can’t just be on the front office.
The Patriots coaching staff needs to show progress as well in the final six games. Against the Rams, Sean McVay badly out-schemed Mayo. That can’t keep happening. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has seemingly been better in recent weeks, but defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington’s unit ranks among the bottom 10 in the league.
LIVE: Jerod Mayo Press Conference 11/18: https://t.co/1us6uhh1ww
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 18, 2024
Then, if we’re talking about how to define success, there’s the inescapable bottom line. At this point, there are no moral victories. Wins matter. No more being content with controlling the game against the Rams even though you lost by 6 at home. No more feeling like you did so much right only to lose to a bad Tennessee Titans team.
In 2000, Bill Belichick rallied his rebuilding Patriots team (which sat at 2-8) to close the season 3-3 and build momentum heading into the offseason. For this to be a truly successful year, these Patriots need to do the same over their final six games.
That’s certainly possible. The Miami Dolphins are beatable this Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts after that are bad. The Arizona Cardinals are a tough matchup, but the Pats will get them after their bye, offering extra rest and prep time. You might catch the Buffalo Bills with nothing to play for in Week 18, too. They could get three more wins.
At this point, it’s already fair to say that the Patriots are going to enter the offseason feeling good about their quarterback. Some will call this season a success for that reason alone.
But with six games remaining, the Patriots need better production from their rookies, development from their coaches and, well, wins to truly call 2024 a good first season for Mayo and this regime as it enters an important offseason.
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(Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
