Whether Penn State will host a College Football Playoff game next month should be pretty clear by Saturday evening. Yes, two games remain in the regular season for the No. 4 Nittany Lions, but this road trip to Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) coupled with the outcome of Saturday’s Indiana-Ohio State game should help clear up the Playoff and Big Ten championship game picture.
Sure, Penn State (9-1, 6-1) still must play Maryland (4-6, 1-6) in Beaver Stadium next Saturday, but a win against the Golden Gophers puts Penn State’s odds of making the 12-team playoff at 97 percent, per The Athletic’s Austin Mock. Should the Nittany Lions lose to Minnesota, that percentage drops to 63 percent.
Here’s what I’ll be watching this weekend and how it can impact Penn State’s playoff bid and potential seeding:
1. This is the week to root for Ohio State. I know this probably feels bizarre to many of you, but from noon to 3 p.m. you want Will Howard and the Buckeyes to beat Indiana. Why? Penn State needs to win out and then have Indiana lose twice and Ohio State lose to Michigan to make the Big Ten Championship game. Oregon has already locked up a trip to Lucas Oil Stadium. The odds of the Nittany Lions getting to Indianapolis aren’t good, but you want Ohio State to win Saturday and then lose next week to Michigan. Indiana needs to lose to Ohio State and then lose again next Saturday to Purdue. Again, it’s not likely, but upsets can and do happen.
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2. The margin of victory for whoever wins in Columbus will be one more data point for the College Football Playoff selection committee. No. 5 Indiana has been dinged for their strength of schedule. Penn State’s strength of schedule is better and the Nittany Lions have also been praised by the committee for being in a close game with Ohio State. If the Hoosiers get blown out, there’s no doubt Penn State remains ranked ahead of them. Just how fall Indiana falls and whether the Hoosiers remain in the Playoff race then comes into question. Remember, Penn State lost to Ohio State by 7 points. If Indiana loses by three does that change anything for the committee in terms of comparing Penn State and Indiana?
3. What if Indiana beats Ohio State? The Hoosiers would then jump Penn State in the rankings and at 11-0 and with a game remaining against Purdue, Indiana would likely be gearing up for a game down the road in Indianapolis on Dec. 8. Ohio State then slides back in the rankings with a second loss, but just how far? Remember, teams seeded fifth through eighth host a Playoff game. Penn State at that point should still be in a position to host a Playoff game. However, keeping Indiana behind Penn State will gives Nittany Lion fans less to sweat out.
4. If Indiana and Penn State both finish 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State then what? If those two have the best record, meaning Ohio State goes 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Michigan, we arrive here. That’s where the fourth criteria of the Big Ten title game tiebreakers comes into play. This is where the conference records of the four different teams on Penn State’s schedule (Illinois, Wisconsin, USC and Minnesota) would be compared to the records of the four different teams on Minnesota’s schedule (Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern). The team whose opponents have the highest cumulative conference win percentage goes to Indianapolis. This scenario still favors Penn State. Headed into this weekend, Penn State’s four opponents are 14-15 in conference play. Indiana’s four are 9-19.
5. Forget about Ohio State and Indiana for a second. Penn State still needs to — and I think should — win out. This Minnesota game is the last true test for Penn State (sorry, Maryland). It could also be the last time this team plays on the road for quite some time. Yes, P.J. Fleck’s squad is coming off an idle week and has some upset potential. We all saw Oregon struggle with Wisconsin last week and know weird things happen in this sport, particularly this season. Still, Penn State is the more talented team. Franklin’s teams over the last decade have been really good at winning the games they should win. Yes, Minnesota nearly sent Franklin’s Penn State coaching career into a tailspin in 2016, boos at halftime in Beaver Stadium and all, but if this team is as good as we think it is, it should be fine on the road in what should be a chilly afternoon. My pick: Penn State 27, Minnesota 13.
6. Penn State would feel a lot better about itself if it can put together a strong and consistent run game and build some confidence for a pass catcher not named Tyler Warren. Those are the two aspects of this offense that, if they can get clicking, can be the difference between Penn State simply getting in and Penn State actually making some noise in the Playoff. Nick Singleton, like most starters, didn’t have to take on a full workload last week against Purdue. Minnesota is 11th in the conference in run defense (119.8 yards per game) and sixth against the pass.
7. While Penn State still needs someone not named Warren to step up, there’s no mistaking No. 44 is going to get his touches. Several players and coaches this week, including tight end coach Ty Howle, were asked about Warren’s case in the Heisman race. Howle, who was an analyst when Warren was recruited, said “absolutely” Warren should be a Heisman candidate.
“The thing that makes him special is all the ways he can affect a game,” Howle said. “He can catch it for a lot of yards, make explosive plays, break tackles. This offseason, looking at areas to improve, was run after the catch. Not just speed, but using his off-arm and breaking tackles. That’s been a big piece of his success.”
8. Has Franklin’s message to officials landed? After the win at Purdue the head coach mentioned how Abdul Carter continues to play through multiple holding penalties each game. One of the best defensive players in the country keeps insisting he’s still learning and growing into his role off the edge. Still, if Carter is again getting held, I wonder if we see the officials start to make more of these calls? If it wasn’t before, it certainly should be on their radar. Carter can break open a game and likely will continue attracting double teams. With Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton — who should be back to full health after being close to fully back last week — Penn State might have the best two edge rushers in the Playoff field.
(Top photo of Penn State coach James Franklin and tight end Tyler Warren: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
