Only two teams, as of now, have invested more dollars in their 2025 rotation than the Phillies. That includes the Los Angeles Dodgers, who will have Shohei Ohtani back as a starting pitcher next season. It’s them, the New York Yankees, then the Phillies. It would be difficult to accuse the Phillies of neglecting their rotation.
And, still, how they construct the back of it remains subject to debate.
The Phillies owe Taijuan Walker $36 million over the next two seasons but are not committed to him as their fifth starter. They are giddy about Andrew Painter, who will turn 22 in April as one of the best pitching prospects in the sport, but must have his innings managed in 2025. They’ve added various younger pitchers to the mix — including three more Tuesday when Rule 5 protection decisions were due — but none have proven they can pitch every fifth day in the majors.
There are scars from last summer’s No. 5 starter roulette. Those could nudge the Phillies toward pursuing a more certain solution to fill out their rotation. They could shop for next season’s Spencer Turnbull or Kolby Allard — or devote more guaranteed dollars to strengthen a roster strength.
Or they could just go with the unknown until Painter arrives.
The Phillies added righties Mick Abel, Moisés Chace and Jean Cabrera to their 40-man roster Tuesday to prevent them from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft. All three have been starters in the minors. They’ll join Tyler Phillips, Seth Johnson and Alan Rangel in the current mix to compete this spring for a rotation job.
The Phillies have various needs to address this offseason — the outfield and bullpen, specifically — and those would outweigh the need for a Painter stopgap. But that won’t stop them from pursuing a rotation upgrade.
“We’ve got four solid starting pitchers that we like,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said earlier this month. “I really don’t have a fifth starter right now. Painter will be that eventually. I hope Taijuan Walker will be better. But we’re not going to anoint him on that. We have some other arms that we like in the organization. We think Abel can jump at any time. We like Seth Johnson.
“We like some of these guys, but I can’t tell you they’re our fifth starter. So I would say we’re open-minded to be in a position where we look at what we do with our starting rotation, as well as other places to get better.”
There are layers to this quest for back-of-the-rotation stability. The Phillies have kept their best starting pitchers healthy, which has enabled them to avoid dipping too deep into their rotation reserves. They’ll hope for that same health dynamic in 2025, but they cannot expect it. They have yet to plot Painter’s path for next season, but team officials have hinted at a modified season to keep him available for the final months. Painter made six shortened starts in the Arizona Fall League and logged 15 2/3 innings — good enough to earn the AFL’s top pitcher honor — but he will be limited during his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
The @Phillies‘ Andrew Painter with an autumn-high six punchouts today.
In likely his final appearance of the year, MLB’s No. 32 prospect raises his totals to 18 strikeouts over 15 2/3 Fall League innings. pic.twitter.com/4gOlP2g3wS
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 12, 2024
If he has a finite number of innings to use, the Phillies would prefer to have him later in the season. That could prompt them to start Painter’s spring training later than everyone else. He might not pitch in exhibition games to preserve innings.
“My instincts tell me, ‘Well, I really want him available later in the year to pitch,’” Dombrowski said. “Now somebody may tell me, ‘Dave, he needs to use those innings more early in the season.’ I don’t think so. But until we have those conversations, I’m not really sure.
“I mean, Painter’s really good. He’s got the chance to pitch very effectively at the major-league level. You just can’t say, ‘OK, from the very get-go, he might go seven innings.’ You don’t want to be burning all those things in April if you need him in September.”
This scenario requires two things — a viable fifth starter and patience to begin the season. If Walker is deemed ineffective and no one from the internal collection of arms seizes a job, there will be pressure to expedite Painter’s arrival.
The Phillies could opt to use Painter earlier in the season, pause his throwing in the middle, then restart him later in the year. But that plan could present greater risk, rather than just delaying the beginning of his season.
This underscores the importance of developing one or two of the inexperienced starters on the 40-man roster.
Abel, 23, is a former first-round pick who limped to a 6.46 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2024. Rival evaluators have raised doubts about Abel’s ability to command the baseball. He regained some velocity later in the season. He has adjustments to make and his stuff could gain a bump if the majors are within reach.
Chace, 21, might have the highest upside of the non-Painter prospect pitchers. He came to the Phillies in the Gregory Soto trade with Baltimore last summer. The Orioles had capped Chace at four-inning starts as part of a piggyback system; the Phillies removed the training wheels and saw him strike out 43 percent of the batters he faced in six starts with their affiliates. Chace has refining to do — evaluators said he must improve how he sequences hitters and holds runners.
Cabrera, 23, is an undersized righty who has posted big strikeout numbers in the minors. He could move to a reliever role at some point, but last season he had eight starts of at least six innings. He ended the year at Double-A Reading.
The notables left unprotected by the Phillies were Eiberson Castellano, who was named the organization’s pitcher of the year in 2024, his first full year as a starter; and Griff McGarry, whose command issues have dulled his prospect status and chances of being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Dombrowski said the Phillies could attempt to collect rotation depth in November because it’s harder to lure starters given their rotation situation. It’s one reason they added Rangel, a 27-year-old righty who was released in the middle of last season by the Los Angeles Angels, to the 40-man roster earlier this month. Free agents see the money the Phillies have committed to Walker and know Painter is coming.
“Guys who can provide depth that you like, we’re not always their first choice because there’s four spots already taken,” Dombrowski said. “We have to try to help ourselves depth-wise however we can at this time of year.”
(Top photo of Andrew Painter: Norm Hall / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
