For 10 years, we knew going into the College Football Playoff there were four possible national championship matchups. And at least one of those wouldn’t seem realistic. (Though we did get Georgia–TCU that one time.)
Guess what? The 12-team bracket increases those possibilities by 9X! No worries if the math confuses you (I consulted AI), but there are indeed 36 possible combos for the Jan. 20 national championship in Atlanta. Of course, some of those seem way more likely than others.
So, let’s rank their likelihood, shall we? And let’s have a little fun imagining those matchups while we’re at it.
1. Oregon vs. Georgia
How we get here: The No. 1 Ducks have been the most consistent team all season. The No. 2 Dawgs have been all over the map, but they may be the most talented team in the field. And they have a more favorable draw.
Cool storyline: It could be a full-circle moment for Oregon coach Dan Lanning if he gets back to Mercedes Benz Stadium, the site of his humbling 49-3 loss in the 2022 season opener to … Georgia. He has gone 35-4 since.
Honorary captains: Bo Nix and Stetson Bennett
2. Georgia vs. Ohio State
How we get here: Ohio State fell to the No. 8 seed after its disastrous home loss to Michigan, but the Buckeyes, which beat CFP teams Penn State and Indiana, are still more proven than No. 5 seed Texas, which finished with no Top 25 wins.
Cool storyline: These two also have a recent matchup at the same stadium: Georgia’s 42-41 escape against the Buckeyes in the 2022 semifinal at the Peach Bowl. The one where Ohio State kicker Noah Ruggles missed a 50-yard field goal to win it.
Honorary captains: Brock Bowers and C.J. Stroud
3. Georgia vs. Texas
How we get here: Oh boy. Not three times in the same season. But it’s entirely likely given the Horns will be heavily favored in their first two games against Clemson and, if they win that one, Arizona State. If they make it, the semifinal will be played in Arlington.
Cool storyline: Two teams haven’t met three times in the same season in decades — or maybe centuries. Though in 1896, West Virginia and Lafayette did meet three times in three days.
Honorary captains: Gunner Stockton and Arch Manning
4. Oregon vs. Notre Dame
How we get here: The Irish will have to beat Georgia, which seems unlikely based on the recent history of both programs, but this year’s Dawgs aren’t at the level of their 2021-23 editions, and Sagarin, FPI and other computer ratings have the Irish ranked higher.
Cool storyline: It’s the ultimate old money vs. new money matchup, but also, these schools have met only twice. The last time was in 1982, and it was a 13-13 tie. We’ve been waiting 42 years to decide it once and for all.
Honorary captains: Phil Knight and Rudy Ruettiger
5. Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
How we get here: We’ve seen Ohio State play Oregon, on the Ducks’ home field no less, and the teams could not have been more evenly matched. Oregon won 32-31. See above on Notre Dame vs. Georgia. (Both teams would need to win another after that.)
Cool storyline: We could go with Marcus Freeman taking on his alma mater, but what about the fact Ryan Day would go from Buckeye State pariah following his fourth consecutive Michigan loss to playing for a national championship?
Honorary captains: Brady Quinn and A.J. Hawk
6. Notre Dame vs. Texas
How we get here: These teams boast two of the top-three scoring defenses in college football (the other is Ohio State), which will give them a shot against anyone. Admittedly I have less confidence in their respective quarterbacks.
Cool storyline: Remember the famous 2016 “Texas is back!” game? That double-overtime Horns win proved premature by seven years. But Texas is pretty back now, and playing the Irish again — this time for a national championship — would be symbolic.
Honorary captains: DeShone Kizer and Tyrone Swoopes
7. Oregon vs. Penn State
How we get here: It’s impossible to trust James Franklin against a top-five opponent (he’s 1-14 with Penn State), but fortunately for him, the Nittany Lions won’t have to face one until at least the semifinals. They get No. 10 SMU at home, then No. 9 Boise State in Glendale.
Cool storyline: Two Big Ten teams in the national championship game? That’s eight months of Paul Finebaum programming right there.
Honorary captains: Kenny Wheaton and Ki-Jana Carter
8. Penn State vs. Ohio State
How we get here: First, by sitting through eight straight Ohio State wins over Penn State, including 20-13 in Happy Valley last month. Then the Buckeyes win their rematch against Oregon, and the Nittany Lions win three consecutive big games. (Wait.)
Cool storyline: Same as No. 7.
Honorary captains: Paul Posluszny and Troy Smith
9. Penn State vs. Texas
How we got here: By these teams combining to beat five more Top 25 teams than they did during the regular season.
Cool storyline: It’s been lost to time now, but Steve Sarkisian is less than a decade removed from losing his job at USC due to alcohol addiction. He got his life together, revived his career and now he’d be playing for a national title?
Honorary captains: Michael Robinson and Vince Young
10. Georgia vs. Arizona State
How we get here: The Sun Devils may be only ranked No. 12, but they’re the hottest team in the country not named Oregon. They have a bye and would not have to face the Ducks until the semis — unlike Tennessee, which has to beat Ohio State, Oregon and someone else.
Cool storyline: I once covered a Georgia-Arizona State game in 2008 when a Georgia freshman receiver named A.J. Green lit up the Sun Devils in Tempe. ASU coach Kenny Dillingham would have been a freshman sitting in the stands.
Honorary captains: Green and Rudy Carpenter
11. Arizona State vs. Notre Dame
How we get here: Again, ASU’s path is not half-bad, besides having to play an ACC or SEC team in Atlanta, after Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark made a public push for his champ to be above Boise State in the final rankings. Instead, Boise State gets the Fiesta Bowl.
Cool storyline: The coaching profession has been trending younger in recent years, but could we see a national title matchup where the 38-year-old Freeman is the grizzled vet compared to 34-year-old Dillingham?
Honorary captains: Al Michaels and Joe Montana
12. Georgia vs. Tennessee
How we get here: The Vols’ road is tough, but they have one of the fiercest defenses in the country and a workhorse running back in Dylan Sampson. They’ll need quarterback Nico Iamaleava to play his best ball of the season.
Cool storyline: Not cool per se, but Georgia has won eight straight against Tennessee, all by at least two touchdowns, including 31-17 last month. … Yeah, I can’t sell this one.
Honorary captains: Champ Bailey and Peyton Manning
13. Notre Dame vs. Tennessee
How we get here: The Irish have a clearer path than the Vols. But if Tennessee knocks off Oregon — which, if we listen to SEC coaches, should be a breeze — then here they come.
Cool storyline: This would be a great uniform game. Even better if they’d let both teams wear their home jerseys.
Honorary captains: Rick Mirer and Heath Shuler
14. Oregon vs. Boise State
How we get here: Hello, Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos nearly knocked off the Ducks once, though that was before Oregon retooled its offensive line and caught fire. But Boise may need someone else to knock out Georgia.
Cool storyline: The first time Mercedes Benz Stadium hosted the CFP title game, in 2017, it got Alabama-Georgia. This crowd would not be that crowd.
Honorary captains: LeGarrette Blount and Byron Hout
15. Arizona State vs. Penn State
How we get here: By Cam Skattebo going full Christian McCaffrey on the upper half of the bracket, and Penn State excelling at offense and defense in the same game(s).
Cool storyline: These two schools from polar opposite climates have only met in the 1977 Fiesta Bowl. Dillingham was still 13 years from being born.
Honorary captains: Brandon Ayiuk and Chris Godwin
16. Penn State vs. Tennessee
How we get here: Honestly, I’m not sure we do. But statistically, I’m required to put this game here.
Cool storyline: James Franklin tormented the Vols during his three seasons at Vanderbilt, winning two of three meetings, including a 41-18 rout in 2012. That was the last time Derek Dooley coached Tennessee.
Honorary captains: Matt McGloin and Tyler Bray
17. Boise State vs. Ohio State
How we get here: Boise’s path isn’t insurmountable, right? First off, it’s 3-0 in Fiesta Bowls, so chalk that one up. And the Broncos have knocked off Georgia before (35-21 in the 2011 season opener).
Cool storyline: Oh, you know where I’m going with this. In 2010, during a debate over the BCS, former Ohio State president Gordon Gee likened Boise State to the Little Sisters of the Poor. Boise by 100.
Honorary captains: Chris Petersen and Gordon Gee
18. Boise State vs. Texas
How we get here: I don’t want it to seem like I have significantly more confidence in Ohio State than Texas. I do not. They’re 1A and 1B.
Cool storyline: Texas DC Pete Kwiatkowski played at Boise State and coached there under Petersen.
Honorary captains: Kellen Moore and Colt McCoy
19. Georgia vs. Clemson
How we get here: There are always 12-over-5 upsets in basketball, and usually the 12 seed is not a recent two-time national champ.
Cool storyline: It’s not every day a team loses 34-3 in its season-opener, then plays that same team in the same stadium 142 days later.
Honorary captains: Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence
20. Boise State vs. Arizona State
How we get here: Well, they are the No. 3 and 4 seeds.
Cool storyline: The fact this matchup could even occur in a national title game is why we have a 12-team Playoff.
Honorary captains: Can one team’s offensive coordinator be the captain for both teams? If so, Dirk Koetter.
21. Notre Dame vs. Clemson
How we get here: Do I have confidence Clemson can win even one CFP game? I do not. Are there 36 of these to come up with, though? Yep.
Cool storyline: Why does Notre Dame have to join the ACC when it can just play Clemson every year?
Honorary captains: Tony Rice and Steve Fuller
22. Oregon vs. SMU
How we get here: No. 11 seed SMU has its work cut out, but QB Kevin Jennings is a baller. Perhaps he becomes the football version of Steph Curry taking Davidson to the Elite 8.
Cool storyline: You might not be aware, but SMU once had its football program shut down for two years due to a massive illicit scheme to pay its players. What today would you call “NIL.”
Honorary captains: LaMichael James and Eric Dickerson
23. Ohio State vs. SMU
How we get here: If SMU can win at Penn State in the first round, I’d like its chances against Boise State, and if it wins that one, things could escalate quickly.
Cool storyline: I’d like to think Ohio State fans will forgive Day if he wins the national championship. But they’ll hang his “For Sale” sign if he loses to SMU.
Honorary captains: Jack Nicklaus and Bryson DeChambeau
24. Texas vs. SMU
How we get here: By Texas spending many millions on NIL, and SMU spending many, many millions to get into the ACC.
Cool storyline: I cannot imagine how much money will be wagered on this in country club locker rooms all over Texas.
Honorary captains: Garrett Gilbert and Garrett Gilbert
25. Oregon vs. Indiana
How we get here: Curt Cignetti has taken a team to a national championship game before. Google it.
Cool storyline: The Big Ten is so big that two of its schools can meet for the first time all season in a national title game.
Honorary captains: Marcus Mariota and Antwaan Randle El
26. Ohio State vs. Indiana
How we get here: Look, guys. I love the Indiana story as much as anyone. They are not going to the national championship game. (But I said 36.)
Cool storyline: If the Hoosiers do, it would be one of the all-time coolest college football stories.
Honorary captains: Eddie George and Anthony Thompson
27. Texas vs. Indiana
How we get here: By these teams combining to win six more Top 25 games than they did during the regular season.
Cool storyline: These teams last met in 1966. I could not find much info on the game, but the poster was magnificent.
Honorary captains: Kevin Durant and Isiah Thomas
28. Penn State vs. Clemson
How we get here: A lot of injuries in the rest of the field.
Cool storyline: Clemson has seen a huge uptick over the last decade in student enrollment from the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Many of their parents went to Penn State.
Honorary captains: Calvin Booth and Horace Grant
29. Boise State vs. Tennessee
How we get here: A lot more injuries in the rest of the field.
Cool storyline: Any national title game involving Boise State has a cool storyline.
Honorary captains: Ian Johnson and Jamal Lewis
30. Boise State vs. Clemson
How we get here: By Dabo Swinney proving once and for all that the transfer portal is for suckers.
Cool storyline: The coolest storyline would be if Boise can bring the blue turf with it to Atlanta.
Honorary captains: Jared Zabransky and Woody Dantzler
31. Arizona State vs. SMU
How we get here: Well, all ASU may have to do is beat Oregon and Texas, the No. 1 and 2 teams in the country last week, and all SMU may have to do is beat three straight top-10 opponents.
Cool storyline: In an alternate history, these two would have played each other in the Pac-12 this season. On Apple+.
Honorary captains: Kurt Nimphius and Jon Koncak
32. Tennessee vs. SMU
How we get here: By all the other teams in the bracket getting exposed for Connor Stalions-esque scandals and getting postseason bans in the next five weeks.
Cool storyline: Do you know how angry this would make Alabama fans?
Honorary captains: Jalin Hyatt and Courtland Sutton
33. Arizona State vs. Indiana
How we get here: Not even Neil deGrasse Tyson could explain this one.
Cool storyline: ASU was picked to finish 16th in the 16-team Big 12 and Indiana was picked 17th in the 18-team Big Ten. This would be the plot of “Hoosiers” if both teams were Hickory.
Honorary captains: Bobby Hurley and Calbert Cheaney
34. Tennessee vs. Indiana
How we get here: By the earth folding into itself.
Cool storyline: It’s a rematch of the highly entertaining 2020 Gator Bowl, which the Vols won 23-22 in the peak moment of the Jeremy Pruitt era.
Honorary captains: Jarrett Guarantano and Peyton Ramsey
35. Indiana vs. Clemson
How we get here: The Hoosiers’ underrated defense stymies Notre Dame, then their receivers exploit Georgia’s corners, and by that point, they’re playing with too much confidence to lose in the semis. Clemson gets there somehow.
Cool storyline: Go back to 2018 and tell yourself Clemson and Indiana are going to play in a national championship game. And that Indiana will be favored.
Honorary captains: Tom Allen and Tommy Bowden
36. SMU vs. Clemson
How we get here: It started when Clemson beat SMU on a 56-yard field goal the other night.
Cool storyline: A national title game featuring the No. 11 and No. 12 seeds in the first year of the system? Dreams really do come true.
Honorary captain: Chad Morris. Duh.
Joe Robbins, David Jensen, Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
