TORONTO — It’s a forever question in the NBA. No matter the stylistic complaints being lodged against the game, the pace at which teams are playing or the supposed innovations that are taking over the league, it lingers.
Why, late in close games, do so many offensive possessions devolve into basic, slow-paced attacks?
“You’re playing time and score,” said Kelly Olynyk, the Toronto Raptors’ second-most experienced player, in an otherwise quiet locker room after his team lost narrowly to the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday. “You want to make sure you’re getting a good shot. You’re trying to find a (good) matchup. You’re trying to execute. And a lot of times in order to execute, you’ve got to slow down and not be in a hurry. So I think that’s kind of how it plays out.
“That’s in a lot of sports, which is funny, right? Because (it’s not what) you’ve done this whole time (to get to that point).”
The Raptors had another chance in a close game Sunday, but the result remained the same — a 114-110 loss to the Houston Rockets. After a hot start, the Raptors offence struggled against Houston’s ultraphysical defence, forcing 21 Raptors turnovers.
That put the Raptors at a league-worst 4-12 in games that have been within a 5-point margin in the final five minutes or overtime. Prior to Sunday, their defence had been average in those 61 minutes; it has been their offence, which falls to 103 points per 100 possessions, that is a mess. Only four teams are less potent in clutch situations, and that mark would be the worst in the league in all scenarios. Offensive efficiency tends to drop late in games across the league.
Under coach Darko Rajaković, the Raptors have embraced a pass-heavy offence that involves trying to push the pace and lots of off-ball movement. Against the Rockets, the Raptors had 31 assists on 42 field goals, a positive sign for how the Raptors want to play. In part because of conventional late-game philosophy — avoid live-ball turnovers at all costs, make sure you get back in transition, try to get a decent if imperfect shot off — and in part because of the team’s (injury-riddled) roster, the Raptors have faltered in the biggest moments.
Against Brooklyn, the late-game offence was especially galling. With the game tied 90-90, Scottie Barnes led three possessions that led to no points and swayed the game in favour of the Nets:
• On the first, unable to break down his man at the top of the key, he passed it to rookie Jamal Shead late in the shot clock. Shead had no choice but to take a contested jumper.
• Perhaps as a reaction to the first play, Barnes fired a stepback 3 after a screen from teammate Jonathan Mogbo didn’t create an advantage.
• As neither of the previous two possessions resulted in getting a foot in the paint, Barnes drove the next time down the floor. He used his off arm to clear out his defender, and the referees correctly whistled him for an offensive foul. The Nets created a two-possession lead and didn’t look back.
On Sunday, it wasn’t technically in a “clutch” situation, as the Raptors were trailing by 6 points, but Barnes settled for a decently contested long 2 late against the Rockets.
While most of the criticism justifiably goes to Barnes, Rajaković rightly pointed out that his teammates weren’t active enough away from the ball in those moments Thursday, getting caught watching the All-Star. At least one of the plays, the one that led to the missed 3 off no passes, was not a classic isolation. But it was simple stuff.
“That’s part of … basketball,” Olynyk said. “You have to have a certain package of plays that you can go to that (lead to) a good shot. Otherwise, teams are going to switch and now you get stagnant. Now you take a bad shot. And that’s kind of what you’re trying to get away from and slowing it down and making sure that you get something that you want rather than just kind of playing and then realizing, ‘Oh shoot, we didn’t get anything. Now there’s three on the shot clock.’ That’s kind of what you’re trying to avoid. But sometimes, you fall into it anyway.”
In a season in which lottery combinations and learning lessons are as or more important than wins, the struggles aren’t a big deal. But they do highlight some things that are very important for the team’s future, both near and long term.
First, it emphasizes the need to get Immanuel Quickley, who has played just 10 halves thanks to pelvic and elbow injuries, back on the floor. He participated in Saturday’s practice, although not the parts with contact, as he recovers from a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament.
Barnes is many things, but one-on-one scoring has never projected to be his strength. Pair him with a floor spacer who can get into the paint more reliably and space the floor with his pull-up shooting, and he would have a better chance. So, too, would RJ Barrett, who has a solid 12-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch situations but is shooting just 13 for 38 from the field.
Related: The Raptors need more shooters who can also play on the other end of the floor. Ochai Agbaji has been a revelation as a low-usage option on that front, and the hope is Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter improve to become options in those situations. Walter is coming on strong with a career-high 27 points against the Rockets, including six 3s.
14 POINTS FOR THE GOOD GUYS
14 POINTS FOR @JaKobeWalter1 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GLd2LYz4cs
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) December 22, 2024
Then, there is the big conundrum: The Raptors need a guy who can create his own shot with little help. It’s not a surprise that teams with Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, DeMar DeRozan and Kevin Durant all rank in the top seven in clutch offences.
It is still six months until the 2025 NBA Draft, so thinking too much about it is premature. (But we have you covered, regardless.) Interestingly, though, projected top pick Cooper Flagg’s midrange efficiency is one of the biggest concerns about his game, while that quality is a relative strength for Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, teammates at Rutgers. Something to think about, with lots of time remaining to examine upside and fit.
For now, the Raptors would be well served by getting a fuller sense of what they already have on the roster.
Notes
• Against the Rockets, Walter was trying to play Dillon Brooks as physically as Brooks defends his opponents. Walter doesn’t have the heft Brooks does, but that bodes well for the future. We also got a certified heat check as he scored the Raptors’ first 14 points. Walter was doing some advanced stuff all night. He got a big ovation after fouling out of the game.
• The 45th pick and an undrafted rookie combined for an easy bucket against the league’s second-best defence. It was a nice cut from Jamison Battle, but the brilliance was in Shead’s pass, thrown at the first sight of an advantage. Shead scored on his own cut off of a pass from Walter later. Shead played 33 minutes, while Davion Mitchell, who was available after not playing Thursday due to a shoulder injury, didn’t play. Shead had 11 points, 10 assists and six rebounds.
• Sunday was Chris Boucher’s best game in a while. The forward had 15 points and an uncharacteristic four assists, including some tasty treats.
BONJOUUUURRR pic.twitter.com/wqq6V46tv1
— Toronto Raptors (@Raptors) December 23, 2024
• Lamentably, I must put Rajaković on notice regarding some of his challenge decisions. He’s used them in low-leverage situations recently — and lost them. Against Houston, he used one in the second quarter on Walter’s third foul. It was too close to overturn and not important enough to risk losing his one opportunity. He could have really used it when the Raptors turned it over on a late inbound play.
“At that point, it was about trying to save points,” Rajaković said of the challenge.
• Not quite as easily said as done, especially when opponents are treating the Raptors’ shooters as if they have oven mitts on, but there is no way seven of Barnes’ first eight field goal attempts of any game should be 3s. That is even truer when Barnes hit none of the 3s. He finally scored with a turnaround jumper over old pal Fred VanVleet. Rajaković said Barnes is still battling his sprained ankle, plus a hip injury he sustained Thursday.
“He’ll be better,” Rajaković said.
• Barrett missed his second consecutive game with an illness. He was scheduled to travel with the Raptors to New York for Monday’s game.
(Photo of Kelly Olynyk shooting between Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
