Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh has a message that he repeats to his players often. It felt like an especially pertinent reminder this week.
“Penalties, lack of communication, that’s what loses you games,” said Ravens third-year safety Kyle Hamilton. “Coach Harbaugh always tells us we have to learn how to not lose games before we can win games. It’s very true in this sport.”
It’s also been true in one of the NFL’s top rivalries. The latest installment of Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers comes Saturday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. It’s the biggest regular-season game between the two teams in several years. A Steelers win and they’ll clinch the AFC North title with two games to play. A victory by the Ravens would create a first-place tie atop the division and end a troubling trend for Baltimore.
The Ravens (9-5) have lost four straight and eight of their past nine games to the Steelers. Each of those Steelers victories during that stretch was by seven points or less. Pittsburgh’s average margin of victory in those games was four points.
Most of the games have played out similarly. The Ravens make a litany of mistakes and Mike Tomlin’s Steelers find a way to make the key plays or key kicks in the fourth quarter.
“I think it’s been a little bit of self-inflicted (wounds). There’s been a lot of different things that just seem like it hasn’t went our way. But it’s not like ‘Oh, we were just unlucky.’ You got to play disciplined football,” said Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey. “I think Tomlin wants to just keep the game close, keep the game close and then win it at the end, and honestly, that strategy works pretty well when they play us. I respect what he does as a coach.”
In the Steelers’ 18-16 victory over the Ravens in Week 11, Baltimore’s Justin Tucker missed two field goals, running back Justice Hill had a Lamar Jackson throw ripped out of his hands for an interception, and Derrick Henry and Isaiah Likely both lost fumbles. The Ravens also had 12 penalties for 80 yards. The Steelers, meanwhile, got a 6-for-6 performance from Chris Boswell on field goals, turned the ball over only once and had five fewer penalties and 35 fewer penalty yards. Thus, the Ravens lost a game where they kept the Steelers out of the end zone.
The issues go back much further than that mid-November outing. In their eight losses to the Steelers in the past nine opportunities, the Ravens were outscored 78-35 in the fourth quarter. They’ve averaged 64 penalty yards per game to the Steelers’ 42. Perhaps most damaging, Baltimore has lost the turnover battle 19-7.
Those numbers explain why Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken was so agitated at Wednesday’s practice when he thought the team’s wide receivers were too nonchalant during ball security drills. He sprinted across the field for a demonstration. The Steelers have forced a league-high 30 turnovers. The Ravens have committed only 10, but they are the most penalized team in football.
“I’ve been here for three games (against Pittsburgh), and we’ve turned it over eight times, fumbled it seven times,” Monken said. “If that doesn’t tell you that it’s a priority, I don’t know what is.”
The Ravens spent the week denying that the Steelers have the mental edge over them and downplaying past meetings. They’re going to have to prove it on the field.
“Eight out of the last nine, it’s not a good number at all,” Humphrey said. “It’s going to take a lot to get that back on our side.”
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
During game weeks, we’ll examine some of the storylines, matchups and questions the Ravens face heading into the contest. This week’s first-and-10:
1. The ramifications of this game for the Steelers are clear: win and celebrate a division title in your rival’s house. For the Ravens, there’s no absolutes. Even if they beat the Steelers and win their final two games against Houston and Cleveland, the Ravens would still not repeat as AFC North champs if Pittsburgh also wins its final two games against Kansas City and Cincinnati. That scenario would result in the division being decided by the third tiebreaker criteria, which is winning percentage in common games. If the Steelers beat the Chiefs and Bengals and the Ravens beat the Browns, Pittsburgh would have a 9-3 record and the Ravens would be 8-4 against common opponents. There’s also a scenario this weekend where the Ravens could clinch a wild-card spot despite losing. That would require a Miami Dolphins loss/tie to the San Francisco 49ers and an Indianapolis Colts loss/tie to the Tennessee Titans.
2. Jackson has been the Ravens’ starting quarterback for 6 1/2 seasons now. Yet, Saturday will mark his first start against the Steelers in front of a representative home crowd. The only time he’s faced the Steelers in Baltimore as the starter was in November 2020, and that game had less than 5,000 fans due to COVID-19 restrictions. Jackson’s struggles against Pittsburgh are well-documented. He’s 1-4 as a starter against them and has turned the ball over 11 times while throwing just five touchdown passes, compiled a 66.7 quarterback rating and been sacked 22 times. As Monken said this week, the Ravens haven’t given Jackson much help with turnovers and drops. Still, there’s a ton of pressure on Jackson to deliver Saturday.
3. The Steelers haven’t been a blitz-heavy team, sending an extra rusher on 24.5 percent of opposing dropbacks. However, they blitzed Jackson on 41.7 percent of his dropbacks in the November meeting. Jackson is the top quarterback in the league against the blitz in terms of expected points added, but he went just 8-of-15 for 104 yards against the blitz in November and struggled to create big plays. The Steelers also were disciplined in keeping Jackson in the pocket. He had zero scramble yards in the game. They ran a lot of line stunts to create pressure and relied heavily on single-high safety looks. It will be interesting to see how much they deviate from what was a highly successful game plan.
4. Pittsburgh’s defense was on the field for 80 plays and just under 40 minutes of game action in Sunday’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, who are one of the most physical teams in the league. It’s probably not a coincidence that teams are 3-9 the following week after facing the Eagles. The Steelers are banged up, too. Key defensive pieces T.J. Watt, Larry Ogunjobi, DeShon Elliott and Donte Jackson are all dealing with injuries. Watt, who has 14 1/2 sacks against Baltimore over the past nine meetings, will play, but Elliott is doubtful and both Jackson and Ogunjobi are questionable. Still, it would make sense for the Ravens to test the Steelers’ run defense early with a heavy dose of Henry. It could pay off later against a potentially tired and beat-up defense
5. Another reason the Steelers have had so much success against the Ravens is they’ve limited tight end Mark Andrews, Jackson’s go-to target. Andrews became the Ravens’ all-time touchdowns leader in Sunday’s victory over the New York Giants by hauling in his 48th score. You know how many of those came against the Steelers? Zero. Andrews has 18 total touchdowns against the Browns and Bengals and none against the Steelers. In 10 career games against Pittsburgh, Andrews has been held to five catches or fewer seven times. He has over 50 yards receiving against Pittsburgh just three times.
6. Ravens No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers got some attention this week when he said the Steelers “don’t really do (anything) that stresses me.” In two games against the Steelers, Flowers has seven catches on 17 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. He’s had several drops. In fact, drops from Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor have loomed large in recent losses to Pittsburgh. On Saturday the Ravens need more out of their wide receiver group, which could be shorthanded with Bateman (foot) and Agholor (concussion) questionable and Diontae Johnson remaining estranged from the team.
7. Cornerback Brandon Stephens has started every game for a second consecutive season, but recent weeks have seen him lose snaps as the Ravens have gotten rookie first-round pick Nate Wiggins and trade acquisition Tre’Davious White more involved. That process started in Week 11 in Pittsburgh, when Stephens played 77 percent of the defensive snaps. Stephens has struggled for much of the year. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed the fifth-most receptions (52) in the NFL and second-most receiving yards (686). He’s also given up three touchdowns and been called four times for pass interference, including twice last week. Stephens’ issues all year have come in finding the ball in coverage. Russell Wilson is a quarterback who loves to take deep shots. Even with the Steelers’ top receiver, George Pickens, sidelined, this is a week where the Ravens could feature a little more Wiggins and White on the outside and a little less Stephens.
8. In March, the Ravens signed Nnamdi Madubuike to a four-year, $98 million contract extension, making him the third-highest-paid interior defensive lineman in the NFL. Madubuike, though, has struggled to match his production from last season when he broke out with 13 sacks. It’s not that Madubuike has played poorly. He just hasn’t consistently made the high-impact plays that he did last year. He has only five sacks this season, and three came in a Week 10 game against Cincinnati. He has as many 15-yard penalties this season as sacks. The Ravens could use Madubuike to play his best game on Saturday.
9. Against the Giants, the Ravens had their longest kick and punt return of the season, courtesy of Hill and Desmond King, respectively. Tucker made all five of his extra points, and Jordan Stout dropped both of his punts inside the 20. The Ravens’ special teams, which has struggled for most of the year, feels like it is building some momentum. However, the true test will come Saturday. The Steelers have arguably the best special teams unit in the league. Boswell has made 11 of his 13 attempts from 50-plus yards and 38-of-41 on the season. The Steelers have also blocked two field goal attempts and a punt. Twenty-seven of the last 33 Ravens-Steelers games have been decided by one score, and quite a few of them featured a momentum-changing special teams play. The Ravens can’t fall victim to a big play on special teams.
10. The Ravens filled their two vacant roster spots this week with cornerback T.J. Tampa (ankle) coming off injured reserve and Johnson being removed from the reserve-suspended list (although not rejoining the team). The Ravens figure to add more reinforcements by Friday’s 4 p.m. ET roster deadline. If they want to create 53-man space, cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis, who is sidelined with a hamstring injury, is a candidate to go on IR. The Ravens also could move on from Johnson if they decide there’s no path forward. Baltimore has two available practice squad elevations. Harbaugh has already said King will be the punt returner, so he’s presumably one of them. With question marks about the status of Agholor and Bateman, the Ravens could opt to add a wide receiver to their game day roster. Their practice squad options are Dayton Wade, Malik Cunningham, Anthony Miller and Keith Kirkwood.
Prediction
Ravens 20, Steelers 17
It’s hard to trust Baltimore in this matchup. It just is. The Steelers have a way of getting the Ravens out of their game. They’ve been able to take the fight to Jackson and do enough on offense and special teams to win. The Ravens need to respond, show some composure and mental toughness, play up to their talent level and win. What better time than now? The Ravens are at home and should be the more desperate team. They also are healthier. A Tucker late game-winning field goal would be quite a redemption story after his two misses at Acrisure Stadium in November.
(Top photo: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
