As baseball gathers next week in Dallas for the annual Winter Meetings, little has changed for the Phillies. They remain in search of an outfielder and a right-handed reliever. They have shopped numerous players on their current roster in an effort to shake up things. The whole sport is awaiting Juan Soto’s decision, which will put into motion other transactions.
It’s a long offseason.
Conversations with people inside and outside the Phillies organization have portrayed a team that’s willing — and actively seeking — to shuffle the roster, but without a clear path toward doing so. In the past two offseasons, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has wielded money in free agency and been aggressive in landing his top targets, Trea Turner and Aaron Nola.
There is more ambiguity this time.
Start here: The Phillies, according to multiple major-league sources, never met with Soto. They are not among the teams, those sources said, that are bidding on Soto. His contract will be worth at least $600 million, The Athletic reported this week. The Phillies were viewed as long shots to land Soto; rather than devote time and resources so they could say they tried, they have concentrated their efforts elsewhere.
What’s emerged is a portrait of a team increasingly trying to thread a needle for 2025 without compromising 2026 and beyond. The Phillies have few, if any, big-league-ready prospects to contribute in 2025. They do have players — Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford atop the list — who could be factors in 2026. Neither is untouchable in trade talks this offseason, but it would require a significant return to deal them away.
But the Phillies are in win-now mode, and if they are to flip a player from the current roster like Alec Bohm, they would need someone to play third base in 2025 — even if it’s only as a placeholder for Miller to arrive in 2026. It is natural to connect the Phillies to a high-profile free agent like Alex Bregman, but an actual match is less realistic. Teams that pursue but don’t sign Bregman might have more interest in Bohm, which could help the Phillies obtain the high price they have placed on him. It’s a tricky dance.
Money, generally, is not a deterrent to the Phillies. They have stretched the payroll to record heights and will be among the sport’s largest payrolls again in 2025. But other clubs entered this offseason with more resources.
The Phillies, as of now, have the second-highest payroll in baseball when calculated for luxury tax purposes. (The Los Angeles Dodgers are tops.) The Mets, entering these meetings, have a current payroll tab of approximately $92 million less than the Phillies. Boston, for example, has a 2025 payroll almost $135 million lower than the Phillies. Even the Yankees are sitting $44 million below the Phillies. The Phillies will cross the third tax threshold — $281 million — and very well could go past the fourth tier ($301 million), which triggers the highest tax rates. Their current payroll is about $282 million.
There is money coming off the books after 2025 — Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are slated to be free agents. They account for $42.85 million (about 15 percent) of the current luxury tax payroll. But the Phillies will need to replace the production lost from both players and could face a situation where the best path is to re-sign them.
The Phillies have said they would wade deeper into the tax penalties for the right player. Soto could have been that, but the Phillies appear to have decided a $50-plus million salary was too restrictive, or that Soto would not take their money, or there was no scenario in which they would outbid one of the New York teams.
The Phillies have continued to dangle Bohm and Ranger Suárez, according to major-league sources, in an attempt to acquire big-league pieces. They have made Nick Castellanos available, those sources said, but any trade would require the Phillies to pay down much of the remaining $40 million on his contract.
Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, two younger players who could interest clubs, are less available in trade talks.
The Phillies are under no obligation to trade from their big-league roster, but they have indicated to teams they are more willing than before to do so. As Dombrowski has said, it takes good players to acquire good players.
They have monitored a potential Garrett Crochet trade, although major-league sources indicated the Phillies and White Sox were a better fit in July than now. Talks were serious then. Chicago might find a better prospect package from another club this offseason.
There has been little movement in the two markets — outfield and bullpen — relevant to the Phillies. So, it’s not as if they have missed opportunities to improve.
Dombrowski has said he does not expect to re-sign both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, then at the general managers’ meetings last month, he went a step further. He does not think the Phillies will acquire two late-inning relievers this offseason.
The Phillies have three trusted leverage relievers in Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and José Alvarado.
“One more for sure,” Dombrowski said in November. “I don’t think we’d have to have five. We like (Tanner) Banks. We think he can step up and pitch some more innings for us. And sometimes those answers come internally too. We have some arms that we like.”
They remain interested in a reunion with Hoffman, whose agency has marketed him as a potential starter. Maybe Hoffman secures more money through that route, but he enjoyed his time in Philadelphia and found a lot of satisfaction in a late-inning bullpen role.
The Phillies have checked in on numerous relievers, either as free agents or trade targets, including two former Yankees relievers, Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle. Holmes has reportedly received interest as a starter, which would not make him a fit with the Phillies. But the Phillies can make competitive offers that come with a promise of playing for a contender.
They have yet to find the right match.
(Top photo of Dave Dombrowski: Chris Szagola / Associated Press)
