Russell Wilson and the Steelers offense's sensational day (and the immense implications)

(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 2, 2024.)

2. The Pittsburgh Steelers rolled up 520 yards on Cincinnati and got a 414-yard passing day from Russell Wilson. What happens next will affect Wilson, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and the team.

The Wilson-quarterbacked, Smith-coordinated offense was sensational Sunday beyond a pick six interception enabled by what could have been a penalty for defensive holding or pass interference. This was one of the most productive days for the Steelers’ offense in 305 regular-season and postseason games with Mike Tomlin as coach (it also helped Tomlin secure the 18th non-losing season of his 18-season career).

Where Sunday ranked in 305 Tomlin games

Offensive Stat	Sunday vs CIn	Tomlin-era rank
Success rate	48.5%	5th
Explosive pass rate	32.4%	12th
First downs	28	12th
Yards	520	13th
Points per drive	3.4	17th
Offensive points	37	20th
EPA	+15.0	22nd
EPA/play	+0.23	25th

Finally, after years of ineptitude on that side of the ball, the Steelers look like they have a chance.

The implications are immense:

• Wilson’s future: The Steelers face Cleveland (home), Philadelphia (road), Baltimore (road) and Kansas City (home) over their next four games. That stretch will return the information Pittsburgh needs when deciding how to proceed on a potential contract with Wilson, who was a bargain on a one-year, $1.2 million deal this year while still collecting $37.8 million from Denver.

The Steelers do not negotiate new contracts during the season and seem likely to let the situation play out. Wilson’s contract situation frequently became news during his Seattle days. That is happening again.

“They took the last two quarterbacks available for $1 million apiece last offseason and were winning with Justin Fields, so they are not going to be strong-armed,” an exec from another team said.

Wilson appears headed toward a payday that was no sure thing when Denver released him.

“If he goes to the playoffs and they win a playoff game and lose to the Chiefs in a close one, you are telling me he is not going to get Daniel Jones-type contract offers around the league?” the exec added.

Wilson, who completed 29 of 38 passes for 414 yards and three touchdowns in the 44-38 victory over the Bengals, could get more than that if he successfully navigates the upcoming stretch of tougher defenses and the Steelers break through in the postseason.

Wilson is flourishing with a team that wants to play the way his former team, Seattle, wanted to play early in his career. The combination of tough defense, running the ball and Wilson making big plays downfield was always a winning one.

The Seahawks lost the ability to play that way in Wilson’s final seasons with the team as their defense and run game withered. Wilson sought a more prominent role in the equation when forcing his trade from the Seahawks. Now, he’s got the right team framework to win the way he won long ago, even if he’s less capable as a runner. Sunday’s performance suggested he also can help a team keep pace in a high-scoring game.

• Arthur Smith’s future: Wilson seems like a good fit for Smith’s offense. What if Smith is not calling the plays next season? Smith reportedly will not pursue a chance to coach his alma mater, North Carolina, but he surely would love to become an NFL head coach again.

“I think Arthur Smith will be a candidate for a head-coaching job,” another exec said. “I think we are going to see the second-time head coach come back in vogue. Washington is going to be a test case for that with Dan Quinn getting a second chance. There are quite a few guys who fell out of favor — Matt Nagy being one, Arthur Smith being another — who maybe were tied to the wrong quarterback in their previous stops and will say, ‘Look at what I’ve done as an offensive coordinator in my new place.'”

Quinn was obviously more successful in his previous head-coaching stop, taking the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl, but the general point is one quite a few execs share at this point in the season.

• Steelers outlook: The Steelers have not won a playoff game since Jan. 15, 2017, when they edged the Alex Smith-quarterbacked Chiefs, 18-16, in the divisional round. Twenty-three other franchises have won playoff games since then, including the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns, who have each beaten Pittsburgh in the postseason in that span.

If that drought does not end this season, and if Smith does land a coaching job elsewhere, what will Pittsburgh’s prospects be on offense, with or without Wilson back on a more expensive contract? It’s going to be an interesting next couple of months.

(Photo: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)