(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 9, 2024.)
2. The resurgent Sam Darnold tossed five touchdown passes for the Minnesota Vikings in their 42-21 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Is Carolina’s Bryce Young also on a path to redemption?
Here’s how much Darnold struggled across the 58 starts he made before signing with the Vikings in the offseason: Only three of the 65 other quarterbacks making their first 58 starts since 2000 produced lower EPA per play over that career span.
And now? Darnold’s 2024 EPA per play would rank 25th on that list of 65 quarterbacks, between Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
Here’s how much Young struggled across the 18 starts he made before showing signs of improvement over his last six: He ranked last in EPA per pass play among 123 quarterbacks making their first 18 starts since 2000.
His production since then would rank 46th among those 123 quarterbacks, between Marcus Mariota and Jake Locker.
That’s not elite, but it’s ahead of some players whose careers turned out quite well, from Pro Bowlers (Matt Hasselbeck) to Super Bowl winners (Eli Manning, Joe Flacco) to a few stars (Drew Brees, Josh Allen).
Young has been especially improved over the past three games, one-score defeats to Kansas City (30-27), Tampa Bay (26-23, in overtime) and Philadelphia (22-16). He ranks 10th in EPA per pass play over that stretch, right behind Darnold, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Two months ago, that would have seemed impossible, even over such a short run.
Carolina was a dropped pass near the goal line away from what could have become an upset victory over the Eagles — an outcome considered so unlikely that a bettor had risked more than $3 million on the Eagles for a shot at winning less than $500,000. Young, despite modest numbers against the Eagles, does not appear to be the same player whom coach Dave Canales benched after Week 2. What has changed?
Darnold’s resurgence is further along and more easily explained. He’s left bad situations with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers for a very good situation in Minnesota. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell gets much credit, of course, but this franchise might be king of the memorable one-off quarterback season.
Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre (heck, even Case Keenum) were not long-term starters for the team, but each produced a special season in Minnesota. Darnold has joined their ranks unexpectedly in 2024, earning a spot in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below, which compares every quarterback season in team history through 13 games.
Darnold’s 27 touchdown passes through 13 games trail only the 31 Culpepper completed to this point in the 2004 season. His 8.5-yard average per pass attempt ranks third behind 1998 Cunningham (9.6) and 1988 Wade Wilson (8.9) among the 21 Vikings quarterbacks who combined for 63 qualifying seasons (minimum 200 pass attempts through 13 games).
(Photos: Stephen Maturen, Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NFL history.
