(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 16, 2024.)
2. Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings take center stage Monday night in what should be another showcase game for the NFL’s most surprising quarterback. Here’s what Darnold has proved down the stretch.
When the Vikings shocked the NFL by starting 3-0 with Darnold tossing a league-leading eight touchdowns, we noted that the quarterback had attempted only two passes while trailing. How would he fare when the Vikings inevitably fell behind over the course of the season?
The answer, so far: much better than in the past, and even better than he has performed when the Vikings have been tied or leading this season. The table below shows the surprising results.
| 2024 Darnold | Tied/Ahead | Trailing |
|---|---|---|
|
Cmp-att
|
186-278
|
78-108
|
|
Cmp %
|
66.9%
|
72.2%
|
|
Yards
|
2,252
|
1,047
|
|
Yards/att
|
8.1
|
9.7
|
|
TD-INT
|
21-6
|
7-4
|
|
Rating
|
107.8
|
108.8
|
|
Sack rate
|
8.6%
|
11.5%
|
|
EPA/pass play
|
+0.03
|
+0.21
|
|
First-down rate
|
34.2%
|
41.8%
|
|
Air Yards/att
|
8.8
|
8.8
|
|
YAC/att
|
3.1
|
3.7
|
|
Explosive pass %
|
19.8%
|
26.6%
|
|
Avg time to throw
|
3.24
|
3.27
|
This marks a big change for Darnold.
Before this season, every meaningful Darnold stat seemed to fall off a cliff when he was forced to play from behind.
His completion rate fell (64.4 percent to 55.9 percent). His yards per attempt fell (7.5 to 5.9). His touchdown-to-interception ratio cratered (40-20 to 23-36). His passer rating (93.2 to 66.0) and EPA per pass play (+0.05 to -0.17) also tanked.
Darnold did not attempt his third pass of the season while trailing until Week 7, when he completed 15 of 18 for 211 yards while trailing Detroit in a 31-29 defeat. He has attempted passes while trailing in every game since and ranks seventh in EPA per pass play and second in passer rating when trailing this season. His development as a passer in less favorable situations could have broad implications in the playoffs and beyond, as Darnold is set to be a free agent in March.
“I think Darnold is going to figure into the options in a lot of places,” an exec said.
One of those places could be Minnesota, especially if Darnold leads a deep playoff push. But injured rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy could still be the leader in the clubhouse for 2025.
“McCarthy is their guy,” the exec said. “The talking heads think they are crazy to let Darnold go, but they don’t have the same conviction on McCarthy as the Vikings do.”
(Photo: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
