Last year, when it was time to pretend the Giants could get Shohei Ohtani, we reversed the format of these profiles. Instead of asking if the Giants would want Ohtani (yes), we looked at whether Ohtani would want the Giants (no). He chose the Dodgers, specifically to punish you for laughing when Kevin Durant chose the Warriors. Can’t say you didn’t have it coming.
Roki Sasaki, highly coveted free agent, demands a similar format. It’s even more necessary for him because he’s going to sign a minor-league contract for international bonus pool money and play for the league minimum in 2025. He won’t be arbitration-eligible for years; it’s a similar situation to Ohtani’s first contract with the Angels, where he wasn’t paid a salary over $1 million until his third season in the majors.
The A’s could sign Sasaki if that’s where he wanted to play. Maybe he knows that California is the best state, and he’s under the impression that capital cities are an honor reserved for only the coolest city in each state. By the transitive property, this would mean Sacramento is the best city in the country. Hey, you never know.
There are concerns about Sasaki’s durability. Doesn’t matter. Think of him as a No. 1 draft pick, like Paul Skenes, except he’s going to skip the minors entirely. Worry about the durability in six years, when it’s time to give him a contract that’s closer to his market value.
Sasaki’s velocity dipped a bit this season. Doesn’t matter. He’s a 23-year-old pitcher with some of the best pure stuff in the world. He started his professional career when he was 19, and his career ERA is 2.02 in 69 starts. His highest ERA in any single season was last year’s 2.35. He might be the best arm Japan has ever developed, which is saying a lot.
But, why, oh why, would he choose the Giants over the other 29 teams?
Maybe because the Giants have at least one thing that almost no other team can offer.
Why Roki Sasaki would choose the Giants
Everyone is assuming the Dodgers are the front-runners, which makes more than a little sense. Teams are limited to whatever money is in their international bonus pool and, will you look at that, the Dodgers have more money available than any other team for the 2024 international signing period (note: the Dodgers do not currently have the most money available for the 2025 international signing period, which opens Jan. 15, 2025; it isn’t yet clear whether Sasaki will sign during the 2024 or 2025 period. Also, teams can add to their bonus pool via trades). So not only are they the reigning World Champions, and not only do they already have two of Japan’s biggest superstars, but they can offer the most money. Great. So it’s settled.
There is one hope for the Giants, though. It might sound silly, but only if you lack imagination. The hope is that Sasaki is a competitor’s competitor, someone who likes to push himself, someone who likes a challenge. Someone who despises the easy way out and judges the people who take it.
Someone with this mindset doesn’t look at the Dodgers, with Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and think, “I want to join them.” This kind of sicko wants to beat them. He doesn’t want to be the third head of HYDRA’s hydra; he wants to be the hero who cuts the heads off. Someone with this mindset grew up playing “Shadow of the Colossus” and identified with a lone protagonist slaying a series of seemingly invincible colossi.
You can almost hear the “Rocky” score in your head as you read this, and maybe it’s a little overwrought, but you can’t deny that the Giants offer a unique experience relative to Ohtani and Yamamoto. Joining the Dodgers’ historical rivals is the best possible way for Sasaki to forge his own path and stand out. You don’t have to know who John Roseboro or Kevin Elster are, but even a baseline understanding of the rivalry would make the Giants more appealing.
Sasaki can link arms with the superfriends from the World Baseball Classic and skip down the garden path, or he can challenge himself and prove that he’s even better. Signing with the Dodgers would be like looking up the answer to Wordle before playing it every day, just for the satisfaction of getting it right in one guess. Booooooorrrrrrring.
Apart from all that, Oracle Park would be an excellent place for a pitcher making a transition to the major leagues. Sasaki doesn’t need help keeping the ball in the park — his career HR/9 rate is a hilarious 0.3, and he’s allowed three home runs in his last 202 innings — but it’s not as if a pitcher will turn down the extra help. While the Giants will have a new pitching coach, J.P. Martinez, he’s a respected pitching mind for an organization that has helped a lot of pitchers make a lot of money.
Another significant point to consider: the Dodgers have a reputation for turning their pitchers into delicious and nutritious Soylent Green, which is good for the team, but not as great for the pitchers. The Dodgers used duct tape and popsicle sticks to get enough innings for a championship, but that doesn’t mean they have everything figured out. From our own Fabian Ardaya earlier in the year:
Friedman acknowledged industry-wide concerns but noted the Dodgers will spend time investigating and “reimagining” inward this winter when it comes to their pitching development and protocols.
“It’s been a really challenging year on that front and something that we’re going to need to spend a lot of time on this winter to really dig in on”
They’re a smart, well-run organization, but they sure do churn through a lot of arms. Say, you have an arm, don’t you, Roki Sasaki? Food for thought. While I agree that the Dodgers make a lot of sense, I’m not convinced that they’re the only possible destination. It really depends on the kind of experience that Sasaki is looking for and what he considers success to be.
Why Roki Sasaki would choose another team
If you deleted every mention of “Giants” up there and replaced it with “Padres,” it would make even more sense. And it’s really, really, really hard to come up with a counterargument for that one. The Padres are an “it” team right now. The Giants are not. It’s cool to be a historical rival, but it’s even cooler to be a current rival. And if Sasaki dreams of facing Ohtani in the NLCS next season, the Padres offer the best chance, and it’s not particularly close. (Plus, he’d get to play with his friend and mentor, Yu Darvish.)
Done in one, except there’s more. Sasaki is coming over to the majors because he wants to compete at the highest level. He’s risking millions and millions of dollars to do it — maybe even hundreds of millions — and he’s going to want some sort of cost certainty from the team he chooses. The Giants responded to a Dodgers championship by looking to cut payroll. This is loser behavior. A player who can choose any baseball team in the game will want to steer clear of the teams exhibiting loser behavior.
Perhaps that description is too strong for your tastes, but it fits. The Giants are dealing with declining fan interest, and every Dodgers game at Oracle Park has as much blue as orange in the stands, if not more. The Padres are a franchise that retired the number of a Dodgers great because he helped San Diego win a pennant. Here are all of the World Series games the Padres have won, ranked in order of importance:
1. Game 2, 1984 World Series
You can argue with most rankings, but you can’t argue with that one. And yet that franchise had an owner who got mad at that kind of irrelevance. It bothered him, and he decided to do something about it. In the process, the Padres became one of the best draws and most exciting teams in baseball. The entire franchise is a case study in how to make people care.
The Giants’ response to a Dodgers World Series and lower revenue is to push up their glasses, shuffle some papers and see if the trick is to try Paul DeJong and Nick Ahmed together. Throw in a one-year deal to Kyle Gibson and, bingo bango, there’s your offseason. It’ll all make sense if Landen Roupp wins the Cy Young and Heliot Ramos wins the MVP, you’ll see.
Now, if the Giants are playing a little rope-a-dope and actually pursue Juan Soto, or if they make a bold trade or three in the next month, maybe Sasaki can be convinced. From here, though, they’re looking more like the Rockies than the Padres — maybe not in terms of talent on the current roster, but in terms of direction.
Verdict
A better chance than some. A much worse chance than some of the other teams who will pursue him, though. It’s easy to look at this as a Dodgers-Padres battle, but there are plenty of teams that might appeal to him. The Cubs also have a pair of Japanese superstars. The Yankees are one of the most famous sports teams in the world, regardless of sport. The A’s will play in a city with plenty of delightful antique stores, especially in Old Town (try the taffy).
Sasaki won’t be a Giant unless the pitcher has a serious sense of history and plenty of imagination. It’s a shame because it really would be fun, and it would definitely spice up a rivalry that’s been a bit of a boiled chicken breast lately.
Someone send him some Matt Chapman defensive highlights, pronto.
Previous free-agent profiles
• Blake Snell, LHP
• Juan Soto, OF
• Willy Adames, SS
(Top photo: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
