I think Jeremy Swayman will be as good as Andrei Vasilevskiy. In 2023-24, Swayman played his best when the games counted the most. He was the Boston Bruins’ top player in the postseason against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.
Swayman is fast, quick, smart, composed and competitive. He may not be as show-stopping as Vasilevskiy. He doesn’t have to be. Swayman excels at positioning himself for square, efficient saves.
You may think, then, that Swayman deserves Vasilevskiy’s $9.5 million annually. Indeed, you may think that because the Tampa Bay Lightning ace signed five years ago, Swayman deserves even more. The salary cap is $88 million this season. It was $81.5 million in 2020-21, the first season of Vasilevskiy’s blockbuster.
Swayman does not.
Vasilevskiy was 25, the same age as Swayman is now, when he signed his megabucks deal. But Vasilevskiy had banked two regular seasons of No. 1 play. In one of them, he won the Vezina Trophy.
Swayman has never been a regular-season No. 1.
It would be all well and good if organizations paid purely on projected performance. By that measure, Swayman’s AAV should be $11.5 million.
The league’s reality, however, is that past performance, not just for an individual but for his peers, influences future value. David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy, Swayman’s fellow present-and-future organizational pillars, know this better than most.
In 2017, when Pastrnak missed one day of training camp because he was unsigned, the right wing had a clear comparable: Filip Forsberg. The Nashville Predators right wing had 133 points in 182 career games before signing his six-year, $36 million second contract. Pastrnak (123 points, 172 games) agreed to a six-year, $40 million second deal.
In 2019, McAvoy withheld services for three days before signing a contract with his own comp: Zach Werenski. The Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman had 128 points in 237 games (0.54 points per game) and 22:08 average ice time per appearance when he signed a three-year, $15 million second contract. McAvoy had 60 points in 117 games (0.51) and 22:10 ATOI when he signed a three-year, $14.7 million bridge deal.
When it comes to Swayman, there is no goalie in terms of age, career performance and contract status that general manager Don Sweeney and agent Lewis Gross can use to frame their negotiations.
It leaves Swayman and the Bruins at a juncture where their disagreement is approaching a critical date: Wednesday’s opening of training camp. Whether Swayman will withhold services in search of his preferred deal is unknown.
Swayman’s ask, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, is $9.5 million annually. It is the salary McAvoy earned on his third contract. By the time he signed on Oct. 15, 2021, McAvoy had been the Bruins’ No. 1 defenseman as measured in ice time for three straight seasons.
Swayman’s next season as the Bruins’ No. 1 goalie will be his first. In that way, the Bruins hold the upper hand.
Swayman is lucky. After his 2023 arbitration hearing, Sweeney had the choice of a one- or two-year deal. Had the GM selected the latter, Swayman would be in the fold for $3.475 million for 2024-25. It would have been a steal.
But part of the reason Sweeney selected a one-year decision, in all likelihood, was to acknowledge to Swayman that he would outgrow his award. They were willing to revisit his price — to a point.
Because Swayman is restricted, the Bruins could stand firm to a marketplace number like $6.4 million annually. It is the average annual value John Gibson landed from the Anaheim Ducks as a 25-year-old in 2018.
It wouldn’t serve them well, though, to play hardball. Linus Ullmark is gone. The Bruins do not want to play games that matter with Joonas Korpisalo and Brandon Bussi as their tandem.
Perhaps, then, the Bruins could offer Swayman $7 million annually. At that number, Swayman would prefer shorter term. A two-year deal, for example, would allow Swayman to reinforce his resume and return to the marketplace for a smashing score.
But this would also let Swayman walk into unrestricted free agency. This would expand his market and his asking price. The Bruins do not want this. They see Swayman as a long-term stopper — not one who could say goodbye for nothing in 2026.
The solution, then, is a compromise: a four-year, $28 million contract. Swayman would be the fifth-highest paid goalie in the league. He’d be 29 for his UFA swing. His current employer would be at the head of the line to give him a big-boy payout.
The Bruins have been generous when the time has been right. Only three defensemen were earning more than McAvoy when the right-shot defenseman signed his current contract. Pastrnak became the fifth-highest-paid forward when he nabbed his $11.25 million deal.
For Swayman, that time has yet to come.
(Photo: Richard T Gagnon / Getty Images)
