Every sound idea requires some list of the good and bad –— running errands at a certain time, deciding which games to fire up on League Pass or figuring out which snack is best for sitting around to enjoy the basketball vibes. Adulting can be hard.
Potential impasses can also apply to NBA teams deciding whether to trade a key piece of their success to maintain their bottom line and prepare for the future. Of late, that has applied to the Miami Heat, as rumors about Jimmy Butler continue circulating. Miami (13-10) is riding a season-best four-game win streak, but it still has a future to prepare, with or without the team’s catalyst behind two NBA Finals trips since 2020. Both sides attempted to hash out an extension over the summer, but no agreement was reached.
The Golden State Warriors have been known as an interested party dating back to May, when The Athletic’s Anthony Slater said he expected Golden State to enter the Butler sweepstakes if the Heat made him available. Since then, other teams have reportedly joined the fray, but the six-time All-Star remains in Miami’s fold and remains arguably its most efficient player. We’ll see what happens, but there is just as much reason for the Heat to wait (they’re good for that) than to do a move before they’re ready (especially during their most productive stretch of the season).
The Heat enter today just 1.5 games out of third in the Eastern Conference. They recently beat the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers (22-4) and don’t scare much against the defending champion Boston Celtics, even though the latter’s title run started with a five-game first-round elimination of Miami in last season’s playoffs. Miami has reason to see what this team’s ceiling can be, even if another finals run may not be inevitable.
The 35-year-old Butler’s impending free agency rightly makes him arguably the best trade piece on the market. His $52.4 million player option for next season could make him the best available free agent next summer, should he officially decline it and test the market if Miami decides against dealing him before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
Let’s go over a list of pros and cons behind Miami trading Butler.
Potential Pro(s)
Youth movement
Considering Miami prefers to log wins over bottoming out, this might be the lone pro for trading Butler, who reportedly prefers a win-now situation but remains the Heat’s best resource to maintain their current window.
Beyond Butler, Miami’s two best players are 27-year-old Bam Adebayo and budding All-Star Tyler Herro, who turns 25 next month. While the trio of Adebayo, Herro and Butler have enjoyed immense success together, trading Butler could give Miami an opportunity to acquire youth with a similar timeline as its other two franchise cornerstones as their respective primes unfold.
That being said, while Butler’s reported destinations have a respective set of draft picks to deal, it’s also key for teams to have players enticing enough for Miami to reach a trade agreement. The league’s new collective bargaining agreement makes matching salaries a subtle game of Tetris, so, while the right combination of players and picks can get a trade done, it’s hard to know the true value of the latter before they convey via the draft lottery May.
Potential returns based on reported Butler preferences:
Golden State Warriors
- Most notable available player: Jonathan Kuminga. The 22-year-old is third on the Warriors with 15.4 points per game this season (21.2 in last five). He has a plus-3.2 net rating for Golden State. He will be a restricted free agent after this season.
- Future first-round picks: 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2031
- Future second-round picks: 2026 (from Atlanta Hawks), 2028 (Atlanta), 2029, 2030, 2031
Houston Rockets
- Most notable available player: Jalen Green: Also 22, Green leads the Rockets with 19 points per game this season (career-low 39.5 percent shooting) and has a plus-2.3 net rating. He signed a three-year, $105.3 million rookie-scale extension in the offseason.
- Future first-round picks: 2025, 2025 (Oklahoma City Thunder or Suns), 2027, 2027 (Brooklyn Nets swap), 2027 (Suns), 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031
- Future second-round picks: 2026 (LA Clippers, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers or Heat), 2026, 2026 (Thunder, Mavericks, Philadelphia 76ers), 2027 (Memphis Grizzlies), 2031
Phoenix Suns
- Most notable available player: Bradley Beal: The 31-year-old is third on the Suns with 17.8 points per game (on pace for his lowest since 2015-16 with Washington Wizards). He has a minus-5.3 net rating. His contract includes a no-trade clause and a $57.1 million player option for 2026-27.
- Future first-round picks: 2031
- Future second-round picks: 2026 (Denver Nuggets), 2031, 2031 (Denver Nuggets)
Dallas Mavericks
- For Dallas, acquiring Butler would require cobbling up several salaries to ensure both teams can match money to execute a deal. That means, for example, the Mavericks’ best offer could be centered on Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and P.J. Washington.
- Future first-round picks: 2025, 2026, 2031
- Future second-round picks: 2025 (Denver or Philly)
Potential Cons
Timing
Remember that four-game win streak? It has extended what has been a turnaround stretch for the Heat, who have the NBA’s sixth-best record since Butler returned from an ankle injury on Nov. 18. Their plus-7.4 net rating over that span trails only Boston (plus-10.2) and the New York Knicks (plus-9.1 ) for the best in the East, so Miami is both finding its stride and showing potential for more upside as the season unfolds.
Moreover, after struggling with blown leads and late-game miscues, the Heat have won three of their last five clutch-time games, when a matchup’s score is within five points over the final minutes. Given Herro’s leap as the team’s leading scorer this season, Butler’s days as Miami’s outright best player may be varied, but he remains key to Miami’s climb up the standings.
One of the biggest reasons behind Miami’s improvement has been coach Erik Spoelstra trusting his new starting lineup of Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Haywood Highsmith and Duncan Robinson. In 132 minutes together, that unit enjoys a plus-16.6 net rating (would lead the NBA over the full season) and a 77.7 percent assist rating while resembling a high-end offense and elite defense. While trading Butler could make sense, so does Miami’s reportedly preferred patience.
Adjusted window for East content
Another reason for Miami playing it cool is trusting the long-term results it has enjoyed with Butler in the fold. Since acquiring him from Philadelphia in 2019, the Heat are seventh among all teams in winning percentage (.570), have been to the finals twice and routinely surround Butler with teammates Spoelstra finds ways to maximize, no matter the outside noise.
Of course, Butler walking for nothing in the offseason could adjust Miami’s window, but the franchise has let stars depart for nothing before. Whether matters come to that depends on how strong other teams’ offers for Butler are, but the Heat rarely rush themselves to risk being a lottery-bound team. They’re eyeing their sixth consecutive playoff appearance, which would tie the franchise’s best such streak ever (1996-2001).
Big names are enticing, but Spoelstra routinely maintains focus on the next possession, available player despite their pedigree and respective opponent no matter the challenge. Since he became head coach in 2008, Miami has finished under .500 only twice, and both instances were by a combined eight games (39-43 in 2018-19 before Butler’s arrival, and 37-45 after LeBron James returned to Cleveland).
Dimmed star power
Before Butler, Miami hadn’t made a big-name acquisition since LeBron and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade to form a Big 3 in 2010. Adebayo and Herro have both been invaluable in their development, but the Heat have not outsourced much talent beyond rotating overachieving — sometimes undrafted — players who adjust to the team’s program and routinely give Miami key pieces for a rotation.
But trading Butler to any of his reportedly preferred destinations is complicated because of the dreaded new second apron, which can effectively hard cap teams with high salaries. That doesn’t make a trade impossible, especially because Miami remains one of the league’s best teams at navigating salary cap issues.
Trading or losing Butler wouldn’t negate Miami’s ability to retool, just potentially adjust its look as Adebayo and Herro become potential centerpieces and the Heat build more around them. Butler’s aforementioned option would take up almost 34 percent of Miami’s cap next season, according to Spotrac. If he’s gone, Adebayo ($37.1 million cap hit, 24 percent of cap) and Herro ($31 million, 20.1 percent of cap) would be eating most of Miami’s pie, but the potential wiggle room – and maybe some new draft picks – from Butler’s departure could help the team build more around its two younger stars while spreading its resources to other parts of the team.
(Top photo: Rich Storry / Getty Images )
