Should Packers change their strategy of receiving kickoffs after winning the toss?

GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Packers entered last season’s Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit at 4-6 against the 8-2 Lions. Green Bay had won the coin toss six times in 10 games before that and deferred each time.

With little to lose at that point and wanting to make a statement on the road against a much better team, Green Bay chose to receive. On the first play of the game, quarterback Jordan Love hit wide receiver Christian Watson deep down the middle for 53 yards. Love connected with receiver Jayden Reed four plays later for a touchdown. The Packers took a 7-0 lead and never trailed in a 29-22 upset win.

Similarly, the seventh-seed Packers chose to receive after winning the toss in the wild-card round against the second-seed Cowboys. They followed with a methodical 12-play, 75-yard drive to go up 7-0 and never looked back in a convincing upset victory.

Taking the ball first doesn’t always work out that well, however.

The Packers have won the toss 18 times since the start of last season when Love took over as the starting quarterback. They’ve deferred nine times, including those six straight to start last season, and have chosen to receive the other nine. Of those nine times the Packers chose to receive, they’ve only scored touchdowns twice, against the Lions on Thanksgiving and against the Cowboys in the playoffs.

They’ve punted in those scenarios against the Giants (Week 14 last season), Vikings (Week 17 last season), Eagles (Week 1 this season) and Jaguars (Week 8 this season), while throwing an interception against the Texans (Week 7 this season) and kicking field goals against the 49ers (Divisional Round last season) and the Lions (on Sunday). They haven’t scored an opening-drive touchdown the four times they’ve won the toss and chosen to receive this season.

Does that change head coach Matt LaFleur’s decision to receive going forward?

“Well, it could,” he said Monday. “It very well could.”

What does LaFleur base those decisions on, anyway?

“It’s kind of a gut thing, gut feeling for me,” he said. “I mean, don’t get me wrong. Sometimes I ask just, ‘Hey, what’s their record versus when they get the ball first and where are we at?’ So I think every week’s a little bit different … and I would say the last year, when you talk about the back half of last season to this year, we’ve been a little bit more aggressive in that approach of taking the ball, whereas the previous four and a half years we always deferred.

“So I think there was something to just getting a lead. I think that playing with a lead — shoot, it worked out, kind of, in terms of we went down, we got three points on the board (against the Lions on Sunday). Unfortunately, they were able to answer and score a touchdown. But I would say this, every situation’s a little bit different. You’ve got to factor in a lot of different things in terms of the opponent, where do you feel like you may have an advantage? Certainly, I do think the weather comes into play at times, so I think we take it on a case-by-case basis.”

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— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 4, 2024

The Packers are a process-over-results team. The idea to receive after winning the toss against the Lions on Sunday was sound, looking to make another early statement against Detroit and strike first against the only team discernibly better in the NFC, but the results faltered. We might be lauding the Packers for their decision to receive if they score a touchdown on that opening drive if Love doesn’t throw slightly behind running back Chris Brooks under pressure on third down from the Lions’ 12-yard line. And more notably, if Brooks doesn’t drop a very catchable pass.

They settled for a field goal, still three points but not the preferred seven against a high-caliber team, and here we are. Running back Josh Jacobs was asked after the game about the mood at halftime after Love’s pick-six put the Packers down 17-3.

“It was kind of weird because we didn’t get to go out there and play offense again,” Jacobs said. “The defense was up (because) we got the ball first. It was kind of weird. I think it would’ve been different if we would’ve been able to go back out there and play again and get that momentum and whatever. It was a little weird, but we still believed we could win.”

In hindsight, especially considering how the first half started and ended for the Packers, it’s easy to say they should’ve deferred to begin the game. With a sample size of four games this season in which the Packers have chosen to receive and have not scored an opening-drive touchdown, perhaps those results will alter their process.

But much like Love’s interception issues, the thought behind the decisions (in this case, to receive) isn’t necessarily flawed. Instead, it’s the execution that’s leaving plenty to be desired. Perhaps the Packers will clean up both after the bye week.

“I mean, I’m (an) offensive guy. I always wanna take the ball,” Love said. “I always wanna go out there, take the ball, go down and put the perfect drive together, and put up seven to start the game. There’s no better way to start the game, so obviously, like you said, it hasn’t panned out for us. That’s been a goal for ourselves is to start the game fast, go down there, and put up points and it just hasn’t panned out, so we’re still searching for that, but I think there’s no better way to start a game than go down there and score a touchdown.”