Justin Kluivert grabbed the headlines on Saturday after becoming the first player in Premier League history to score a hat-trick of penalties in a single match in Bournemouth’s 4-2 win against Wolves.
However, the 25-year-old will be infinitely grateful to his team-mate Evanilson, who was responsible for winning all three spot-kicks — also the first player to do so in one Premier League game.
Evanilson’s four goals in a Bournemouth shirt is a modest — yet respectable — return since he joined from Portugal’s Porto in the summer, but his overall contribution in attack has been far more pronounced. The Brazilian has won all of the league-leading five penalties Bournemouth have been awarded this season, with Southampton’s Tyler Dibling (two) the only other player to have earned more than one.
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— AFC Bournemouth 🍒 (@afcbournemouth) December 2, 2024
Such a relentless work rate has not gone unnoticed by his head coach.
“Evanilson, he will not appear today on the score sheet, but he has been a difference maker today, I think has created a lot of chances,” Andoni Iraola said on Saturday evening.
“He has been really uncomfortable for them (Wolves) and I think his work rate without the ball, his fight, his spirit has given us a lot. I know that Justin has scored the hat-trick and (gets) the ball — and we have to value this — but I would like to recognise Evanilson especially.”
Bournemouth’s high-pressing, aggressive style of play can often cause panic in an opposition back line, with Iraola’s side edging Liverpool (four) for most penalties earned this season — made all the more impressive considering Everton, Brighton, Wolves and Ipswich are yet to be awarded a single one.
The Athletic has recently shown that the volume of penalties being awarded per game is among the lowest rates for a long time in the Premier League. Nevertheless, in the age of VAR — where contact in the penalty area is often scrutinised within an inch of its life — there is an art to earning one. It might be a player dragging their leg to ensure contact from a goalkeeper, as we saw with Liverpool’s Luis Diaz against Manchester City on Sunday.
It might be a player intentionally inviting a touch from a defender in order to go to ground, as we saw from West Ham’s Danny Ings against Manchester United in October.
Or it might be a player seeking contact after nipping in on the blindside of an opponent who is clearing the ball — just as Evanilson did to ’keeper Jose Sa on Saturday.
With these five penalties won after just 13 of the 38 games, Evanilson could surpass Andrew Johnson’s record of winning eight in a single campaign for Crystal Palace in 2004-05. Looking across the 33-season Premier League era, he already has joint-fourth-most on the list.
For those interested, the record for penalties won in the Premier League era is held by Raheem Sterling, who has earned 26 for Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea since his debut in the competition in March 2012.
Winning penalties will not contribute to Evanilson’s assist numbers outside of fantasy football but surely his efforts should be acknowledged in the data somewhere. In most cases, Bournemouth’s No 9 has turned a low-value chance of scoring into one of the most lucrative shots you can take in football.
In the example shown above, his side were not even in possession of the ball when he nipped in front of Sa’s foot as the Wolves goalkeeper attempted a pass.
Since 2018-19, the expected goals (xG) value of a given penalty has been 0.79 — a 79 per cent chance of scoring. Given that expected assists (xA) is simply the xG value of the shot that is assisted, we can bolt on that value to a player’s existing xA to provide them with an adjusted metric.
For Evanilson, a modest total xA value of just 0.74 becomes 4.74 when adding his value generated by earning five penalties (0.79 multiplied by five gives a total difference of four).
Extrapolating this method across the Premier League since 2018-19, we can see who has added the most xA value from the penalties they have won.
Unsurprisingly, the list below contains dribbling wingers and strikers playing on the shoulder of the defensive line, with Mohamed Salah, Jamie Vardy and Sterling hoovering up the most value after being brought down in the box.
Granted, this method does mean that a player who earns a penalty and subsequently takes it would be rewarded twice for their efforts. But given that the two actions are ultimately independent of each other, maybe they should be rewarded as such.
Sterling edges out Salah and Vardy with 12 penalties won for City and Chelsea — the most of any player in this period. As you can see below, nine of those came from his archetypal driving runs into the left channel from wide, enticing opposition defenders to dive in, bring him down, and skyrocket the quality of the chance.
It is widely accepted that the punishment rarely fits the crime when a foul is committed by a defender in their own penalty area, but that should not stop the attacking player from trying to gain an advantage.
Whether it is quick feet, game intelligence, or the dark arts, some players are simply better at winning fouls than others.
Providing it is within the rules of the game, they should be rewarded for their attacking endeavour, and adjusting their creative numbers can be a method to achieve it.
(Top photo: James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
