SMU at Penn State: Picks, odds, kickoff time for College Football Playoff first-round game

SMU got in the College Football Playoff field despite losing the ACC Championship Game, but the Mustangs’ stay could be brief. Penn State opened as an 8.5-point favorite as the host of a first-round CFP game.

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Venue: Beaver Stadium — University Park, Penn.
Time: Saturday, Dec. 21, noon ET
TV: TNT
Streaming: Max
Watching in-person? Get tickets on StubHub.

The Nittany Lions pushed Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game but ultimately had no answer for Dillon Gabriel’s offense. Kevin Jennings’ SMU offense isn’t as feared as Oregon’s, but does average more points. The Mustangs are sixth in the country in scoring offense (38.5 points).

Penn State still has one of the most talented defenses in the country but dropped in the national rankings after giving up 45 points and 469 yards to Oregon. Even after that game, the Nittany Lions rank eighth in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) and sixth in yards allowed per game (282.1).

SMU got off to a brutal start against Clemson, falling behind 24-7 at halftime, but the Mustangs outgained the Tigers 458-326 in that game. Jennings, a sophomore quarterback who took the job from incumbent starter Preston Stone, has accounted for 27 touchdowns this season with 3,050 passing yards and 379 yards on the ground.

From a narrative perspective, it’s mostly clear for both teams. If SMU loses big, questions will arise about whether the Mustangs belonged in the 12-team field in the first place. A win would remove any doubt, but Penn State is better than any team on SMU’s schedule so far. The Mustangs went 11-2 but lost to the only two top-25 teams they played this year (BYU and Clemson).

Penn State is hoping to break through and finally win a big game under James Franklin. Franklin is 1-15 against top-five teams in his Nittany Lion tenure, with the win coming back in 2016. SMU isn’t a top-five team and isn’t exactly the caliber of program that would immediately flip Franklin’s inability to win the big one, but winning a playoff game would go a long way after Franklin was getting yelled at by his own fans following a home loss to Ohio State in early November.

Unsurprisingly, there isn’t much matchup history between these two schools. Penn State picked up a 26-21 home win in 1978, and they also played to a tie in the 1948 Cotton Bowl.

SMU at Penn State odds