The Pittsburgh Steelers went into the bye week on a high note, riding a three-game winning streak and sitting atop the AFC North at 6-2.
Before the season, Vegas oddsmakers predicted the Steelers to finish last in the division. Now, if the Steelers can succeed in a second half full of AFC North opponents, there’s a realistic chance they can be the best of the four teams and host a playoff game.
It’s sure to be an eventful and important second half of the season. With that in mind, it’s time to make some second-half predictions.
Note: All stats are entering Week 10 and do not factor in the Thursday Night Football result.
The Steelers will finish with a top-five rushing attack
Over the last several seasons, the Steelers run game has followed the same script. That script has often struggled through the first half. But as the weather gets colder and defenses deal with attrition, the rushing attack has historically taken off.
In 2023, the Steelers rushing attack ranked 30th from Week 1 to Week 8 with 558 yards. Then, from Week 9 until the end of the season, they were the NFL’s second-best rushing offense (1,297 yards). This mirrors the 2022 campaign when the Steelers were 24th through eight weeks (759) before improving to eighth-best the second half (1,170).
With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith calling the shots, the Steelers are already squarely in the top 10 with 138 rushing yards per game. Najee Harris is also coming off of three consecutive 100-yard games. I predict they climb even higher and finish the year with one of the five best rushing offenses, proving that Smith was the right hire to play the brand of football this team desires.
The Hurdle King 👑 @ohthatsNajee22
📲 Stream on NFL+: https://t.co/COxKRnr6Mc pic.twitter.com/jIMLEbfEDs
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 29, 2024
The defense will finish top-five in turnovers, but outside the top five in scoring
Entering Week 10, the Steelers boast the NFL’s second-best scoring defense, holding opponents to just 14.9 points per game. They’re also tied for the fourth-most turnovers, just four behind the league-leading Green Bay Packers (19).
This is a well-built, well-coached unit full of All-Pro potential. That said, the competition is about to get a whole lot tougher. The best statistical offense they faced so far was in Week 1 against the Falcons, who have produced the 12th most points per game (23.0). Aside from the abysmal Browns, every one one of the Steelers’ second-half opponents is better than that.
Look at the difference.
First half: Falcons (12th, 23.0 ppg), Cowboys (18th, 20.5 ppg), Colts (19th, 20.1 ppg), Chargers (21st, 19.9 ppg), Jets (23rd, 19.0 ppg), Broncos (25th, 18.3 ppg), Raiders (26th, 17.9 ppg), Giants (T-31st, 14.8 ppg).
Second half: Ravens (first, 30.8 ppg), Commanders (third, 28.4 ppg), Bengals (sixth, 25.2 ppg), Chiefs (eighth, 24.6 ppg), Eagles (eighth, 24.6) and Browns (T-31st, 14.8 ppg).
Cameron Heyward will earn his seventh Pro Bowl nod, and a rookie will get his first
Steelers defensive captain Cameron Heyward, the reigning Walter Payton Man of the Year, has been a staple of the community and a consistent force on defense throughout his career. However, it was fair to wonder how close to 100 percent he’d be at 35 years old and coming off two surgeries.
Well, he’s silenced the doubters this season as he’s largely returned to his top form. He’s already eclipsed last year’s sack total with three on the season, even though he’s not playing in as many one-dimensional pass rushing situations and has 12 quarterback hits. That would put him on pace for a career-high 24 QB hits. Additionally, his consistent presence helped the Steelers run defense play more consistently through the first half. He’ll be rewarded for his performance with another Pro Bowl nod, which will help him continue to make a case for the Hall of Fame.
I’ll also predict that Zach Frazier will earn a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie, but it may be as a replacement. The AFC features plenty of established centers like Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey, Indianapolis’ Ryan Kelly and Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum. It helps to a degree that Kelly is on IR and Steelers fans love to vote for the Pro Bowl, especially a fan favorite like the former WVU center.
Justin Fields will score a game-winning TD or win a key game as a spot starter
The Steelers may have turned to Russell Wilson as QB1, but this isn’t the last we’ve heard from Fields. From the moment coach Mike Tomlin named Wilson the starter ahead of the season, he promised that Fields would have an opportunity to showcase his talents in certain packages. Especially in the red zone, Fields’ mobility can be a game breaker. I predict the Steelers will call upon the 25-year-old QB in a key situation late in a game near the goal line or Fields will have to make a spot start due to an injury and will take full advantage of the opportunity.
George Pickens will finish top 5 in 20-plus yard completions
With his Madden-like catch radius and big frame, Pickens always had the potential to be one of the NFL’s best deep threats. Now, he’s in an offense that can unlock it with an offensive coordinator who loves to dial up play-action shots and a quarterback known for his moon ball.
Pickens currently leads the league with eight completions of 30-plus yards and he’s eighth with 10 completions of 20-plus yards, five behind the league leader Justin Jefferson (15). With Wilson now in command as QB1 and deadline addition Mike Williams forcing teams to think twice about doubling Pickens deep, there could be even more opportunities for the third-year receiver to flourish.
T.J. Watt will win his first NFL playoff game
In his eighth NFL season, Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has already begun to build a Hall of Fame resume. Six times he’s been named to the Pro Bowl, including four times as an All-Pro. In 2021, he won the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. Three times he’s led the league in sacks and twice led the league in tackles for loss.
But one thing he hasn’t done? Win a playoff game.
I think that will change this year. With four forced fumbles and 6.5 sacks, Watt is the catalyst for the NFL’s second-best scoring defense. Virtually since 2019, when the Steelers acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, they’ve had a near-championship caliber defense that has been good enough to push Pittsburgh into the playoffs but not dominant enough to overcome a dysfunctional offense. With upgrades at offensive coordinator (Smith) and quarterback (Wilson), the Steelers finally have enough firepower offensively to complement their highly compensated defense. This will be the year that Tomlin wins his first playoff game since 2016 and Watt finally advances beyond the opening round of the playoffs.
🔝 @_TJWatt plays through Week 8 💪
More on https://t.co/XL7UQscxtd pic.twitter.com/3vf2eddLwu
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 1, 2024
Mike Tomlin will win NFL Coach of the Year
Speaking of Tomlin, he is widely respected around the league as one of the NFL’s best coaches. He’s a coach who commands the respect of players and finds ways to get to .500 no matter who is playing quarterback.
In his 18th season, Tomlin is doing perhaps his best coaching job. There was no guarantee that Wilson or Fields would be the answer behind center. The Steelers played to Fields’ strengths to help him play his best football as a pro and through two games, Wilson is looking even sharper.
Tomlin has navigated what could have been a precarious situation at QB almost flawlessly at this point, especially when he made the unpopular decision to pivot from Fields at 4-2. If the Steelers finish strong and especially if they can win the division, he has a real chance to be recognized as the NFL’s best coach this year.
Final record prediction
I predict the Steelers will go 6-3 or 5-4 the second half of the season and finish 11-6 or 12-5. That one-game difference and the head-to-head matchups with the Ravens will determine if that’s good enough to win the division or if they’ll begin the playoffs on the road.
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(Photo: Chris Unger / Getty Images)
