For the first time this year, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t among the top two teams favored to win the Super Bowl. Instead, a new tier has emerged with the Buffalo Bills (+425), Detroit Lions (+425) and Philadelphia Eagles (+450) crunched together at the top. The Chiefs are just below at +600 (from +500 last week), followed by the Ravens at +800.
Last week, the Lions had sole possession of the lead at +260 odds with the Chiefs, Eagles and Bills all tied for second at +500. But then the Bills beat the Lions, the Eagles beat another contender in the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chiefs saw their star QB exit the game with an ankle injury.
Here are all the odds for the Super Bowl winner heading into Week 16.
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Super Bowl 2025 odds
With that monster win over the Lions, the Bills entered the top spot in the Super Bowl odds for the first time this season. Sure, they’re still sharing it with their Week 15 opponents, but the outlook is perhaps better at the top for Buffalo. With Patrick Mahomes suffering a mild high-ankle sprain in Week 15, the Bills look like the most dominant team in the AFC despite trailing the Chiefs by two wins. MVP favorite Josh Allen (-1000 odds on BetMGM, wow) has 704 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, 150 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks — and Buffalo scored 90 points across those games.
Entering into Week 16, on top of losing to the Bills, the Lions are facing what The Athletic’s NFL newsletter writer Jacob Robinson called an “absurd injuries situation.” In fact, 52 percent of Detroit’s defensive starters or direct backups are on the IR. The Athletic’s Mike Sando gives them an eight out of 10 on the Panic Meter, though they’re still third in our weekly power rankings.
But BetMGM says the latest odds have less to do with injuries than with one major factor: that three-way tie at the top of the NFC.
“The Lions moved from +260 to +400 to win the Super Bowl and from +130 to +185 to win the NFC after losing to the Bills,” John Ewing, Head of PR at BetMGM, told The Athletic. “This movement has less to do with injuries and more to do with the Eagles pushing for the 1-seed in the NFC and the NFC North still being up for grabs.”
Thanks to the Bills breaking the Lions’ 12-game winning streak in Week 15, the Lions, Eagles and Minnesota Vikings (+1300) are all vying for the top seed in the NFC.
The Eagles’ win against the Steelers lifted them to even with the Lions and to the top of our weekly power rankings. Philly holds the longest win streak in the league at 10, and the win over Pittsburgh showed that the Eagles are good at basically every level, amping up a passing game that had stalled in recent weeks.
The Vikings are an even bigger threat to the Lions’ playoff positioning after sealing their seventh consecutive win and rising to 12-2 with Philly and Detroit. Their odds shortened from +1800 last week to +1300 now.
The Ravens (9-5, tied with the Texans and Broncos) improved slightly week over week, from +1000 last week to +800 now. Their upcoming game against their division-rival Steelers (+3000 to win the Super Bowl) will be critical as they vie to clinch the AFC North. Pittsburgh has the better record at 10-4 but are touchdown underdogs to Baltimore for Saturday’s game.
(Photo of Jalen Hurts: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
