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Super Bowl odds: Lions, Bills, Chiefs form top tier of favorites after Week 16 action

23 December 2024Last Update :
Super Bowl odds: Lions, Bills, Chiefs form top tier of favorites after Week 16 action

‘Twas the night before for Christmas Eve (Christmas Adam, if you will), and all through the league, everyone was chasing the elusive big three. The NFL regular season is nearing its end and teams are setting themselves up for a Super Bowl run.

After Week 15, the Buffalo Bills were at the top of the Super Bowl odds following their win over the Detroit Lions. The two teams have flipped after Week 16. The Lions are the favorites again at +400, followed closely by the Bills and two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who are both +450. The Philadelphia Eagles (+600) and Baltimore Ravens (+750) close out the top five spots in the odds.

Seeding for the postseason is not settled yet, but the big three of Detroit, Buffalo and KC are all in the mix to win the Super Bowl.

2025 Super Bowl odds

Lions back at it

Week 15’s loss to Buffalo was a setback for Detroit, but it took care of business this week by knocking off the Chicago Bears to get to 13-2. The Lions offense was sensational, racking up 475 total yards and Jared Goff shouldered more of the load with 336 passing yards and three scores. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta contributed as usual, but Goff’s top target was Jameson Williams, whose breakout 2024 campaign is littered with plays like his 82-yard touchdown catch against the Bears. He finished with a career-high 143 receiving yards.

 

The Lions may have lost Knuckles indefinitely with David Montgomery’s MCL injury, but Sonic is still a great solo act. Jahmyr Gibbs took his expanded responsibilities in the backfield and ran with them, as he totaled 154 yards from scrimmage (109 rushing, 45 receiving) and added a rushing touchdown. The second-year back has 15 total scores on the season with 12 coming on the ground.

What may have been most impressive for the Lions, though, was holding off Chicago’s offense after battling through a multitude of injuries within their defensive unit. Caleb Williams was able to rack up on the yardage throughout, but he played a hand in one of the Bears’ two fumbles on the day that held them back from keeping pace with the Lions. Detroit has now held 10 opponents on the season to 20 points or less.

The Lions can nearly feel the NFC North title in their hands, but first they will need to match up with the San Francisco 49ers and close out the regular season in what could be a winner-takes-all division title game with the Minnesota Vikings (+1100 to win the Super Bowl), who are also 13-2.

Bills survive a close call

Sometimes a major win like the Bills had against the Lions can lead to a letdown game. Buffalo looked like it was asleep at the wheel for much of the day against the lowly New England Patriots. But the Bills made just enough plays to get to 12-3.

It was not a game that really boosted Josh Allen’s case for MVP, but James Cook came to play. Cook totaled 126 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving). The biggest play of the day from the Bills offense was Cook’s 46-yard touchdown tote in the second quarter.

Allen’s down day (184 total yards, one touchdown pass, one interception) did not hold the Bills back. He also avoided major injury to his throwing hand, which will be something to monitor.

The Patriots moved the ball consistently, but the Bills bowed up when needed by forcing three turnovers.
The Bills are still holding out hope of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but they will need some help from the Chiefs to get there. Buffalo plays the New York Jets and has a rematch with the Pats left on the schedule.

Chiefs keep rolling with a bit less drama

The 2024 season has not looked pretty at times for the two-time defending champions. But like the DJ Khaled song, all they do is win no matter what. The Chiefs now sit at 14-1 after knocking off the Houston Texans. KC has won 19 of its last 20 games and is one step closer to clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

You know the formula; the Chiefs showed well defensively, Patrick Mahomes made a few plays and the team made enough plays down the stretch to get the win. This marked the 11th win this year for KC in one-score games.

Mahomes continued his stellar play as of late, going 28-of-41 with 260 passing yards and a touchdown pass. But the play that caught everyone’s eyes was his 15-yard touchdown scamper, notably after he came into the game nursing a high-ankle sprain.

 

This is the part of the season Mahomes has thrived in throughout his career. He’s heating up again. Over the last five games, Mahomes has thrown eight touchdowns against zero picks with 240.8 passing yards per game and a 63.8 QBR. The medley of weapons expanding around him has helped. Xavier Worthy continues to develop in his rookie campaign, DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce continue to be reliable veteran targets, and Isiah Pacheco and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown have returned to the field in recent weeks.

But it all starts with the Chiefs defense, who picked off second-year QB C.J. Stroud twice in the win and held an opponent to 20 points or less for the 11th time this year.

KC will now turn its attention to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who it matches up with on Christmas Day. All the Chiefs need to do is win one more time to clinch the No. 1 seed and take home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Eagles losing in more ways than one

Philly’s loss to the Washington Commanders may not be the biggest deal when all is said and done. Now 12-3, the Eagles are still atop the NFC East and still have a chance to usurp the Lions as the conference’s No. 1 seed. But the biggest news from the loss may be the fact that star QB Jalen Hurts left the action with a concussion.

Former first-round pick Kenny Pickett stepped in and had a solid showing, but was unable to help Philly secure the win. The loss came despite a masterclass performance from Saquon Barkley, who finished with 150 rushing yards and two scores. He’s now up to 1,838 rushing yards, 268 yards away from topping Eric Dickerson’s single-season record from 1984.

The other big story on the day was the play of Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels, who fried the Eagles’ top-ranked defense for 339 total yards (258 passing, 81 rushing) and a career-high five TD passes.

Not only were the 36 points the most the Eagles have allowed all season, it was only the fifth time a team has totaled over 350 yards of offense against them this year. Philly will need its defense to lock up the NFC East title as they finish the season out against the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants.

Ravens retaking the North

The Ravens have finally slayed the dragon. After losing eight of nine to Pittsburgh, Lamar Jackson and Baltimore beat the Steelers to get to 10-5 and move into a tie for the AFC North lead. Baltimore’s high-paced offense did it again, led by Jackson’s three touchdown passes, Derrick Henry’s 189 total yards and Zay Flowers’ fifth 100-yard receiving game of the season.

This year’s Ravens feel different than past years because of all the weapons around Jackson, who is now up to a career-high 37 touchdown passes against a mere four interceptions. Flowers has emerged with more than 1,000 yards in his sophomore campaign, but that’s in addition to Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely all playing vital roles as well.

But this offense is still powered by Henry, who is now up to 1,636 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns on the year.

The Ravens D was much maligned earlier in the season, but has found a new form in the back half of the year. Since Week 11, they have allowed 278.2 yards and 19.2 points per game, as opposed to 367.9 yards and 25.3 points per game allowed through the first 10 games. Baltimore forced two pivotal Russell Wilson turnovers in the game to limit the Pittsburgh offense, with the second being a game-sealing pick-six from Marlon Humphrey in the fourth quarter.

 

The Ravens close the season again the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns, while the Steelers play the Chiefs and the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals.

(Photo of Jahmyr Gibbs: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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