Texas Tech needs to level up. But why another bad start? Texpert mailbag

Texas has quickly established itself as one of the top teams in the country. Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess as to what to make of the teams in the Lone Star State. But let’s try by answering your questions in the latest edition of “Ask the Texpert.”

Note: Submitted questions are lightly edited for length and clarity.

I know it’s only been two weeks, but Texas Tech has looked terrible. I loved Joey McGuire when he was hired, but the on-field performance is going south. Please provide insight into McGuire and James Blanchard’s performance and future. — Donald D.

Almost a third of the questions submitted this week to this mailbag, which covers all 13 FBS teams in the state, were about McGuire and the Red Raiders. There’s a lot of angst in Lubbock right now.

McGuire’s hire was celebrated by the fan base in 2021 and his recruiting and annual offseason carnival barking has rallied a ton of support. Now, after a 21-point loss at Washington State and an overtime win over Abilene Christian, was all the talk about winning the Big 12 just hot air? Last year, the Red Raiders started 0-2 so this is the second straight season with a disappointing start.

Texas Tech is one of the most penalized teams through two weeks, averaging 10.5 penalties per game, sixth-worst in the FBS. The defense is bad, ranking 124th in yards allowed per play (6.8) and 122nd on third downs (allowing conversions 48.3 percent of the time). The Red Raiders turned the ball over four times at Wazzu.

Remember the aggressive fourth-down approach that McGuire readily embraced when he took the job and worked so well early? So far this year, Tech is 2-for-8 on fourth down attempts, ranking 104th in fourth down conversion percentage. The team also has several key injuries.

Look, McGuire is not on the hot seat and probably will be nowhere near it this season. There’s a lot of institutional belief in him and he did what no new Texas Tech coach has since Mike Leach in 2000 to ‘01: took his first two teams to bowl games. He also finished with back-to-back winning records in conference play, another first since the Leach era. That may seem like a low bar, but let’s get real about Texas Tech’s recent history. The Red Raiders haven’t won more than eight games in a season since Leach was fired in 2009 and made only eight bowls in the last 14 years.

But it is critical for Tech to level up in the new Big 12. Oklahoma and Texas are gone and eight new teams have joined in the last two years. Tech boosters have invested heavily in name, image and likeness for their roster and infrastructure, recently opening a $242 million football facility. There’s not much holding the Red Raiders back.

That starts with simple things like not being your own worst enemy with penalties and turnovers. Playing more disciplined football is not an unrealistic ask from Tech fans. McGuire and the staff need to clean that up.

This weekend’s game against North Texas is a must-win. As for how he and Blanchard — Tech’s ballyhooed general manager — are evaluated, that’ll become more clear once the dust settles on this season and how the Red Raiders fare in Big 12 play. They’ve spent three years building this roster the way they wanted and there’s no excuse for Tech to not have its best team yet of the McGuire era. If the Red Raiders continue to play this way and regress in the win column, the responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of those two.

What is (Rhett) Lashlee doing playing two QBs every week? He’s pushing Preston (Stone) right to the transfer portal. — Ryan F.

Well, he’s not playing two quarterbacks any longer after officially naming Kevin Jennings as SMU’s starting quarterback this week. There was a ton of buzz coming from SMU circles this offseason about Jennings, the Dallas South Oak Cliff product who was Lashlee’s first quarterback signee after taking the job.

Benching Stone, who threw for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions last year, is a bold move and not one made lightly. Stone’s commitment to SMU as a four-star recruit meant a lot to the program four years ago and he played a huge role in the Mustangs’ first conference championship in 40 years, even though an injury knocked him out of the last two games.

In the 17 possessions Jennings has led this season, 10 have ended with an SMU touchdown, field goal or field goal attempt and seven ended in either a punt, turnover or turnover on downs. In Stone’s 17 drives, eight ended with a touchdown, field goal or field goal attempt and nine ended in either a punt or turnover.

Lashlee, when explaining the decision, gave the boilerplate “this gives our team the best chance moving forward.” But the difference in the offensive production against BYU magnified why. SMU’s offensive line struggled and Stone, who can move but is more of a pocket passer than Jennings, was a sitting duck. The three possessions he led resulted in minus-25 yards and three punts. He barely had time to make reads.

Against the Cougars, the offense moved better with Jennings — a scrambler — and the pass rush was much more tame. For mere survival, it makes sense to go with Jennings until SMU can shore up pass protection.

What’s the expiration date on Dave Aranda’s tenure at Baylor? Seems like we’ve seen enough at this point. — Chase C.

It’s too early to say just yet, but there’s no doubt this season is make-or-break for Aranda. The Week 2 loss to Utah is disappointing but not unexpected. Winning in Salt Lake City against the Big 12 favorite is a tough task for any team. I’d set the tipping point at six wins: if Baylor makes it to a bowl, he has a solid shot to be retained for another year. Anything short of that is the danger zone.

A&M had a nice bounce back, but Notre Dame lost to NIU. What do you make of the Aggies going into Gainesville this week? — Aaron H.

I don’t put much stock into the transitive property in situations like this. Notre Dame clearly was more motivated and better prepared for the Aggies than they were for Northern Illinois. But the Florida game should provide clues as to which direction this A&M season is headed.

The biggest area where the Aggies need to show progress is on offense. Will Conner Weigman look more comfortable in his third game as the starter in new coordinator Collin Klein’s offense? Will the receivers get open consistently? A&M looked better against McNeese State, but it was McNeese State.

There are other issues that need to be fixed, like run defense, but I still believe A&M will have a solid defense. I want to see how consistent and efficient the Aggies are offensively in The Swamp.

Steve Sarkisian has a tough challenge in front of him in that he wants to get Quinn Ewers to NYC and allow him to develop deeper rapport with his receivers, while keeping him healthy and getting Arch Manning meaningful experience. What do you think the game plan will be for those two over the next two-three games? — Aaron H.

Race out to a huge third-quarter lead so that the Longhorns can comfortably play their backups for a quarter-and-a-half. That’s the ideal scenario. There’s no reason Texas shouldn’t be able to do that against UTSA and ULM. Mississippi State, Texas’ first SEC opponent, will be another matter.

But I don’t expect Sarkisian to leave Ewers in for an extra drive or two here and there just for the sake of trying to get him a Heisman. Texas has bigger goals, namely a national championship, and keeping him healthy will be priority No. 1. Ewers’ chemistry with the new receivers looks pretty good, so that hasn’t shown itself to be a huge concern yet. He’s playing the best ball of his career and Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden and Ryan Wingo are all settling in nicely.

The UNLV game was terrible, but Houston’s performance against Oklahoma gave me hope. How many wins do you see for the Coogs this season and who do they get them from? — Aditi M.

I still don’t see more than four wins but hanging tough against a top-15 team on the road is encouraging for Willie Fritz and the Cougars. The next two, against Rice and Cincinnati, look like ripe opportunities for wins. Baylor and BYU late in the season seem like the next best chances. But the midseason stretch, which includes four Top 25 teams and road games at TCU and Kansas, is tough.

First, the Coogs must fix the offense. Houston is fourth-worst in the country in points per drive, averaging just 0.73, per TruMedia. They’re also 121st in red zone efficiency and have the seventh-highest percentage of three-and-outs.

Please could we have a ranking of the Texas teams so far? — Jonathan M.

Of course!