The sun still beams with the summer’s fury. The leaves have yet to turn, and the autumn wind has yet to fully blow away the Las Vegas Raiders’ season. Halloween costume stores haven’t even cropped up yet, let alone the ultra-early Christmas decorations. The election still hasn’t hit crazy season yet.
And the San Francisco 49ers are already playing save-the-season games.
Where are the champions of the NFC? The Super Bowl hopefuls? The loaded squad that plowed through the league last year?
“We’ve got to write our own story this year,” head coach Kyle Shanahan said, “and it has nothing to do with other years.”
Usually when they go to Seattle for a game of epic importance, it’s with a division title on the line, or playoff seeding. This time, it’s simply to find themselves. The juggernaut that could only be stopped by the greatness of Patrick Mahomes is now looking up at the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC standings. Gives new meaning to Shanahan eyeing Kirk Cousins, huh?
This start to the season being predictable makes it no less problematic. Perhaps more so. Because Shanahan knew this was possible, this Super Bowl hangover, this malaise after Mahomes. Doing what they do, remaining dominant in the conference annually, increases in difficulty. Making a fourth straight NFC Championship Game, and fifth in six years, was always going to be the opposite of a cakewalk.
Year | Five-game record | Final record | Result |
---|---|---|---|
2019
|
5-0
|
13-3
|
Lost Super Bowl
|
2020
|
2-3
|
6-10
|
Missed playoffs
|
2021
|
2-3
|
10-7
|
Lost NFCCG
|
2022
|
3-2
|
13-4
|
Lost NFCCG
|
2023
|
5-0
|
12-5
|
Lost Super Bowl
|
2024
|
2-3
|
TBD
|
TBD
|
But knowing this, Shanahan and his cast of accomplished veterans weren’t able to prevent it.
Yes, the injuries are an issue. And the fatigue of getting back on the grind after a long season. But somehow the Chiefs are 5-0 with all the same issues. Andy Reid and Mahomes, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, figured out a good hangover remedy.
The 49ers are in desperate need of one.
Theirs isn’t a talent issue. It’s a focus issue. A spirit issue. Their propensity to just kind of wilt in key moments this season is unbecoming of their character. A violation of their brand.
It manifests as a defense that can’t stop the run. An offense that loses potency the closer it gets to the end zone. A special teams unit that stubs its toe with regularity. But the core issues look to be something more intangible.
We know a better team exists somewhere in there. They’ve got to find it.
“It comes down to specifics,” Shanahan said Monday, with the benefit of film and hindsight. “So it’s hard to give a generic answer. But in these two games, these two division games that we believe we should have won with the lead we had in the second half, I thought this (loss to the Arizona Cardinals) was worse than the (Los Angeles) Rams one — in terms of we got sloppier, in terms of our turnovers and things like that. Not scoring in the second half. When you have a lead on people, you need to finish them. The way you finish people is you continue to score, and if you aren’t doing that, you can’t turn it over and you’ve got to stop people at the end.”
That’s how they did it when they son’d the Eagles in Philadelphia last year. Oh yeah. That’s right. New story this season.
Well, in many ways, the Seahawks are the perfect foe to face in this situation. Not just because they are atop the NFC West standings. But because Seattle has always been the 49ers’ measurement of mettle. Throughout this Shanahan era, and the Jim Harbaugh era before it, when they’ve needed validation, when they’ve needed righting, when they’ve needed to max out, Seattle has been a recurring place where it’s had to happen.
The 49ers don’t go to Lumen Field to mess around. It stands to reason they wouldn’t this Thursday.
The Seahawks, coming off a home loss to the Giants, aren’t bullies themselves. (Of course, San Francisco’s greatest issues this year are with inferior opponents.) The 49ers should find their way. They should be locked in enough, motivated enough — and if they are, Seattle can’t hold them.
If the Seahawks can, that’s a different story.
But let’s operate under the assumption the 49ers are the superior team and will prove as much come Thursday night. It’s a somewhat risky assumption because these short-rest games have proven to be the most unpredictable of NFL affairs. Yet we’ll make it because, despite Shanahan’s plea, we are considering previous years.
The question now becomes how does this impact the long-term goal. White-knuckling too early feels like it comes with cost. Playing with December’s resolve in October is a recipe to run out of gas at the end. And for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, that would be an entree of disappointment.
After Thursday’s season-saving, short-rest game against the Seahawks, the 49ers face the Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys before the bye. It would be such a different paradigm if they had entered these games 4-1 instead of 2-3, having not blown late leads to inferior teams. But they’ve squandered much of their room for error already. The turn-up has to be real. Not getting it together could result in 2-6 entering the bye. Also known as cooked.
The 49ers also still have back-to-back presumed cold-weather games, at Green Bay and at Buffalo, not to mention quality foes in Detroit and Chicago at home.
Yes, they can go on a run. Yes, they can, by the end of the season, be the best team in the NFC — which outside of hot starts by Minnesota and Washington isn’t all that impressive. If they get healthy and reclaim their sturdiness, the 49ers are still a problem.
They’ve had these ruts before. They’ve dug out of them before.
But the road to their end game is now harder. Without question. This is a team on a Super Bowl mission, only satiated by hoisting the trophy. First, they’ve got to find their hunger, though it’s not even close to Thanksgiving.
(Top photo of Fred Warner before Sunday’s game against the Cardinals: Michael Zagaris / San Francisco 49ers / Getty Images)