With three regular-season weeks remaining in Big Ten play, four tiers of teams have emerged. Four teams are competing for the league championship and the College Football Playoff. Three bowl-eligible teams are trying to end their seasons on a high. Ten teams are vying for bowl eligibility, while one is already out of the postseason.
All season, The Athletic’s writers will rank various Big Ten topics. This week, college football reporter Scott Dochterman breaks down the most important game left on each Big Ten team’s schedule. The games are placed in four separate groups ranging from those competing for the CFP and the head-to-head must-win games for bowl bids to the best opportunities at earning a postseason berth to the games that matter strictly for pride.
CFP importance
Indiana (10-0, 7-0)
Nov. 23 at Ohio State. Without question, this is the biggest game in Indiana football history. In the eyes of people who barely have watched the Hoosiers play, this game will validate their season and legitimacy as College Football Playoff contenders. A quality performance should lock Indiana into the Playoff. A blowout loss will put the Hoosiers on the CFP border against the ACC and Big 12’s No. 2 teams, Notre Dame and the Nos. 4 and 5 SEC teams.
Oregon (10-0, 7-0)
Nov. 16 at Wisconsin. The Ducks are one win from clinching a trip to Indianapolis, and they might get it in one of the league’s most intimidating environments. While Wisconsin has struggled in many areas, the Badgers will have had two weeks to prepare for Oregon, and they’re still smarting after allowing 329 rushing yards in a 32-point loss at Iowa. A victory at Camp Randall will provide the Ducks with a statement win as the postseason approaches.
Ohio State (8-1, 5-1)
Nov. 23 vs. Indiana. The Buckeyes have won a Big Ten-record 29 consecutive games over the Hoosiers and haven’t lost in the series since 1988. Outside of perfection, every goal is available for Ohio State with a win. It can still claim the Big Ten championship, grab the CFP’s top overall seed, win the national title and, of course, beat Michigan. All the Big Ten’s Darth Vader must do is beat Luke Skywalker in a duel at the Death Star. Otherwise, the road is much more difficult.
Penn State (8-1, 5-1)
Nov. 23 at Minnesota. The Nittany Lions are on track for a CFP home game while benefitting from a remaining schedule without a current ranked opponent and a close loss to Ohio State. But a trip to Minneapolis will either fortify that position or put Penn State’s CFP hopes in jeopardy. Penn State hasn’t won in Dinkytown since 2010, and the Gophers are solid at nearly every position. Plus, it could get cold that weekend in the Twin Cities.
Must-win games
USC (4-5, 2-5) at UCLA (4-5, 3-4)
Nov. 23 at the Rose Bowl. There is more than pride at stake in the annual battle of Los Angeles. Whoever wins this game has a good shot at a bowl bid; the loser must win its other two games to reach the postseason. Both teams enter this stage of the season from different angles. At a minimum, USC expected to reach a bowl while UCLA has improved as much as any Big Ten team since September.
Northwestern (4-5, 2-4) at Michigan (5-5, 3-4)
Nov. 23 at Michigan Stadium. Imagine listing this matchup for the defending national champion instead of “The Game” even a month ago. For the Wolverines to reach a bowl, they need one more win in their final two games. The public may care more about the Ohio State game, but beating the Wildcats is more important for Michigan’s postseason opportunity. While it lacks the prestige of Michigan’s last three seasons, it’s still critical for development under first-year coach Sherrone Moore. For Northwestern, this is a more realistic game to save up your football Karma points than a date on Nov. 16 at Wrigley against Ohio State.
Rutgers (5-4, 2-4) at Maryland (4-5, 1-5)
Nov. 16 at SECU Stadium. After winning its first four games, Rutgers lost four straight before beating Minnesota on Saturday. Now, the Scarlet Knights are in position to qualify for a second consecutive bowl game with one more win in their final three games. The Terrapins have a more difficult stretch featuring games against Iowa and Penn State to finish. If they both finish 6-6, the winner could impact who is guaranteed a bowl berth and who merely is hoping for one. Plus, these teams are designated annual foes, and it could be another step in building a rivalry.
Bowl eligibility
Washington (5-5, 3-4)
Nov. 15 vs. UCLA. Like Michigan, the team that ousted it in the CFP title game, the defending national runner-up needs one more win to become bowl-eligible. While its rivalry game against Oregon matters for Huskies fans, beating the Bruins is a priority. With Washington’s schedule, roster turnover and new coaching staff, securing a postseason bid is critical for Jedd Fisch in building his program.
Nebraska (5-4, 2-4)
Nov. 23 vs. Wisconsin. The Huskers were in this position last year with a 5-3 start only to lose their final four games. They are staring at a similar situation after a home loss to UCLA. With games at USC and Iowa, the best spot to earn a bowl bid is at home against Wisconsin. Nebraska has beaten the Badgers only once in Big Ten play and has lost the last 10 in this series. It can wipe out that losing streak and secure its first postseason berth since 2016 (if not against USC) in the same game.
Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3)
Nov. 29 vs. Minnesota. Luke Fickell has three cracks at earning a bowl invitation and every game is pivotal. But facing Minnesota on Black Friday at Camp Randall is important for multiple reasons. As the most-played series in FBS, the Badgers-Gophers rivalry features one of college football’s most iconic traveling trophies. Wisconsin holds Paul Bunyan’s Axe after winning last year in Minneapolis. Plus, falling to both Minnesota and Iowa in the same season for the second time in three years will not go well in Madison.
Michigan State (4-5, 2-4)
Nov. 22 vs. Purdue. The Spartans still harbor postseason aspirations and have three games against beatable opponents. But the must-win is a Friday night home contest against Purdue. Michigan State has made strides alongside its growing pains after extreme roster turnover under first-year coach Jonathan Smith, and getting to the postseason would be an accomplishment. The Spartans’ other games with Illinois and Rutgers are tossups at best.
Pride games
Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Nov. 16 vs. Michigan State. The Illini have bounced back nicely after a lackluster 2023 season, and they have the potential for a strong conclusion this fall. After a 38-9 defeat at Oregon two weeks ago, Illinois needs to prevent a snowball effect, which frequently dooms its program. A win over the Spartans in the home finale can generate positive momentum for the final two weeks and the offseason.
Minnesota (6-4, 4-3)
Nov. 29 at Wisconsin. The Gophers already have secured a bowl berth and with two games left, the football gods can ask a difficult question. If Minnesota is guaranteed only one win, what would it be? Well, Penn State provides a statement win for the season while Wisconsin is simply a victory. But in this situation, flip the reasoning. Which loss would wound Minnesota’s program and fan base more deeply? Between these choices, Wisconsin wins in a rout.
Iowa (6-4, 4-3)
Nov. 29 vs. Nebraska. The Hawkeyes are playing out the string with two games remaining. Their Black Friday finale against Nebraska has turned into a heated feud between the programs and their fan bases. They compete for the Heroes Trophy, which was broken apart last year after Iowa won on the game’s final play. A win wouldn’t erase the season’s disappointment, but a loss would surely amplify it.
Purdue (1-8, 0-6)
Nov. 22 at Michigan State. This is a rough season for the Boilermakers with five games against teams currently ranked in the top 10. They’ve already played three and been outscored 146-7. In most years, Purdue would look at winning the Old Oaken Bucket to salvage a losing campaign. But with Indiana’s historic success this fall, that prospect would rank as a shocking upset. So, the most realistic opportunity Purdue has at picking up an FBS win this year comes on a Friday night at Michigan State.
(Top photo: Trevor Ruszkowski / Imagn Images)
