The numbers behind Alexander Isak's incredible 2024 – and the record he could still break

23 December 2024Last Update :
The numbers behind Alexander Isak's incredible 2024 – and the record he could still break

Unique. That is a word Newcastle United insiders regularly use to describe Alexander Isak.

Superlatives are so commonplace within football parlance that their meaning can become diluted, but Isak warrants his designation. He is special, he is different and he is, on present form, the best centre-forward in the Premier League.

In typically understated fashion, Kieran McKenna admitted that his Ipswich Town team came up against a striker “of a very high level”. But Eddie Howe, a man who rarely strays into hyperbole, went further, repeating a phrase he has previously about Newcastle’s £60million ($75.4m at present exchange rates) club-record signing. “He’s a world-class talent,” Howe said. “He’s got it all.”

If anyone (incorrectly) held any lingering doubts, Isak’s match-winning performance at Portman Road surely extinguished those and it elevated the striker into an exclusive club.

The first hat-trick of Isak’s Newcastle career, which came in his 85th appearance and following eight previous braces, extended his prolific scoring run to nine goals in nine top-flight games, and 10 in 11 across all competitions. In 2024, he has scored 26 goals, 23 in the Premier League, a top-flight tally only bettered by Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (26) and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (25).

Only two Newcastle players have ever exceeded Isak’s calendar-year Premier League haul. With two fixtures to go before the new year, Isak could yet equal or surpass Andy Cole (24 goals in 1994), and perhaps even Alan Shearer (27 goals in 2002), although that may well require the Sweden international to plunder another treble.

Given the transformation in Newcastle’s attacking fortunes — having failed to conjure a shot on target at Crystal Palace last month, 13 of their 27 league goals (48 per cent) have come in their four games since — and Isak’s hunger for more, that feels eminently possible.

Statistics-wise, it has been an exceptional year for Isak. He has more than doubled his Newcastle goals return across all competitions from 20 to 46 — with a double against Sunderland in the FA Cup in January securing his place in Geordie folklore, and a Carabao Cup strike against Chelsea completing his 2024 resume.

In the Premier League, only Villa’s Jhon Duran (a goal every 87.4 minutes) and Haaland (107.4 minutes) have a better minutes-per-goal ratio than Isak (108.9). Isak’s 0.83 goals per 90 is also the third-best behind that duo.

Premier League’s top scorers, 2024
Player Goals Expected goals Goals per 90 Minutes per goal
Erling Haaland
26
23.79
0.84
107.4
Cole Palmer
25
21.48
0.79
114.5
Alexander Isak
23
19.93
0.83
108.9
19
20.32
0.78
115.8
Jean-Philippe Mateta
18
13.45
0.59
152.1

Interestingly, however, while Isak tends to take fewer shots (3.3) and fewer efforts on target (1.7) per 90 than his rival leading Premier League marksmen, his shot conversion rate (24.7 per cent) and shooting accuracy (66.2 per cent) are among the highest. Isak has also overperformed his expected goals (xG) — a metric that measures the likelihood of a shot being scored — of 19.93 by 3.07 goals, which confirms that he is among England’s most efficient finishers.

Frighteningly and excitingly, Isak is also only 25 years old and Newcastle coaching staff believe he is yet to fulfil his immense potential.

Despite his fruitful form, Isak has failed to convert some gilt-edged opportunities, including a one-on-one against Ipswich, which he mis-hit straight at Arijanet Muric.

Rather than merely bookend the first half with goals — his opener was a powerful finish inside 25.95 seconds, making it the fourth-fastest Premier League strike by a Newcastle player, while his second was gifted to him by Ipswich playing out from the back — Isak should have scored his third by the break. Instead, he had to wait until the 54th minute and Jacob Murphy’s sublime backheeled assist to become the first Newcastle player since Ayoze Perez in April 2019 to net a hat-trick.

As the graphic below shows, the majority of Isak’s contributions came in the Ipswich half, with nine of his 32 touches inside the opposition box, and all of his goals coming from within the area.

Encouragingly, during Isak’s 73 minutes on the pitch, he was also involved in 11 attacking sequences. Earlier in the campaign, Isak often appeared isolated and Newcastle struggling to get the ball to their striker in dangerous areas. After scoring only one goal in his first six league games of 2024-25, Isak now has nine in his last nine.

“He’s very different; he’s got unique skills,” Howe said. “He’s playing with real confidence now and we’re seeing a return to his very best levels.”

Myriad factors have contributed to Newcastle’s uplifting and potentially season-altering week, which has brought three wins, 11 goals, two clean sheets and a Carabao Cup semi-final. Lewis Hall’s continued rapid improvement, increased defensive solidity, the balance Sandro Tonali has brought with his mastery of the midfield since shifting deeper, and Jacob Murphy hitting another of his once-a-season purple patches by providing six goal involvements across his last three league games, are among them.

But Isak is their genuine difference-maker, the player elite sides understandably covet (and almost certainly curse themselves for failing to take a calculated gamble on the Sweden international before Newcastle lured him from Real Sociedad in August 2022).

Isak not only bullies lower-half teams, with 13 goals and two assists in 12 career Premier League games against promoted sides, he has also scored against Tottenham Hotspur (three times), Chelsea (three times), Arsenal, Liverpool (twice) and Manchester City in 2024.

With Callum Wilson sidelined until February due to his latest hamstring problem, Newcastle desperately need Isak to stay fit and to stay put. Anthony Gordon ended the match at centre-forward, but he is not a No 9, while William Osula remains too raw to play regularly and another striker is not among the priorities for January.

Rather than looking to sign another striker, Newcastle are determined to keep hold of their exceptional centre-forward. Chelsea and Arsenal have been heavily linked but, unless anyone floats a fee significantly north of £100million, Newcastle will simply not countenance losing a player who is contracted until 2028.

“There is no part of me or anyone (at Newcastle) who wants to let Alex go,” Howe said. “He is very much part of our long-term plans. Personally, I don’t see that (a January exit) being an issue.”

Newcastle supporters will certainly hope so. With Isak performing like this, a first trophy since 1969 and European qualification become realistic targets once again.

Isak is unique, he is different, he is world class — and he is only going to get better.

(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)