The Premier League season is 11 games old and the league table is taking shape.
As The Athletic has previously reported, the trajectory of a team’s season is usually set by this stage — which means some clubs will spend this international break stewing over a potentially long campaign.
What feels more unusual, however, is the contrasting fortunes of many of last season’s frontrunners. In total, six of last season’s top half currently have fewer points than at the equivalent stage in 2023-24 — and some, significantly so.
Only three clubs — Liverpool, Brighton and Chelsea — have more points, with the other, Brentford, matching their tally.
So what is behind the decline of these clubs? We asked our experts to explain.
Manchester City: -4pts
If City have any concerns they normally fly under the radar but at this point in time their problems are pretty obvious: first and foremost, there is an injury crisis and secondly there is a fragility with counter-attacks (which is in no small part linked to the injury crisis).
“Maybe I have to reflect on the goals we concede,” Pep
Guardiola told reporters in October. “Normally it’s on transitions and set pieces, because without Rodri we lose this power, because he’s another guy who is so strong in this position.”
That was going into the previous international break, and now, going into the current one, he has plenty more to reflect on following a run of four consecutive defeats, where that weakness on duels and quick attacks has been exploited at a time when they are missing not just Rodri but several others, including all four centre-backs.
City had a similar problem with counter-attacks and comparatively weak defending last season, resulting in a run of three draws and a defeat in the league, but they bounced back from that and went on to win the title. Guardiola says there is a difference this time, though, and that is the sheer amount of injuries they have, and given Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish are also out at the moment, Kevin De Bruyne only just coming back from a seven-week absence, and Kyle Walker “not ready for 90 minutes at all”, according to his manager, it is certainly a dire situation on that front.
Guardiola is heartened by the periods in matches where they have played much more like themselves, and against both Sporting and Brighton they could have been a few goals up before half-time. While nobody is hiding the problems they have had afterwards, it was clear at the weekend that a big factor in their defeat was fatigue and a lack of options.
Guardiola believes that once his players are back available City will be at their best, and it is easy to believe that, although one part of their recent struggles is that the players who have been available have not been at their top level.
Phil Foden has been playing well of late but had a slow start and is not yet as blisteringly good as at the end of last season; Ilkay Gundogan does not yet look the player who captained City to the treble, and Mateo Kovacic is very good at many things but can leave the team open on the break. Erling Haaland is hot and cold at the minute, too, so there are a few things that need to click into gear.
Sam Lee
Tottenham: -10pts
The biggest drop-off for Spurs this season has been in results rather than performances.
The underlying numbers across the opening weeks of the season have been largely promising (more shots, higher xG per game, more goals scored; fewer shots conceded, lower xG against, fewer goals conceded), yet there is clearly still an issue with key players not performing to a consistently high level.
That goes some way to explaining how this team can wipe the floor with Aston Villa in the second half of last Sunday’s 4-1 win, but sandwich that with humbling defeats to Crystal Palace and Ipswich — two sides who had previously been winless.
Or go from completely controlling the game at Brighton and taking a 2-0 lead into the interval, to being 3-2 down and completely bereft of ideas by the 65th minute.
Ange Postecoglou’s football asks a lot of players mentally and physically, and with the added burden of European matches, this relatively inexperienced squad have sometimes looked short of the necessary ideas or the running power to win when things aren’t going their way.
James Maddison has in flashes looked something like his old self, but in other moments like no more than a fringe player. Brennan Johnson has shown promise of a more clinical edge but does not yet regularly leave his mark on matches. Son Heung-min has struggled with injury, and currently doesn’t look like he can drag the team along as he once did — or at least not on a regular basis. Lapses in concentration from Cristian Romero have contributed to the concession of several goals. Even Dejan Kulusevski, surely the club’s player of the season so far, has struggled to make a discernible impact in some matches — not least at Selhurst Park last month.
It is incredibly rare for a team to flit between devastating and dreadful with such regularity. The hope will be that with experience and some additions to the squad, they will find equilibrium and continue moving forward from there.
James Maw
Arsenal: -5pts
Arsenal’s first 11 games of this season require the context of their three red cards, injuries to key players and the fact they have six of last season’s top seven away from home.
Even so, there are still factors they could have controlled better to be closer to leaders Liverpool. The eight points Arsenal have dropped from winning positions this season have all ended in draws. Two of these came after sending-offs (Brighton and Manchester City) with the other two (Liverpool and Chelsea) related more to themes Arteta has recently discussed.
In his pre-Bournemouth press conference, when Arsenal had gifted goals away against Leicester and Southampton, he said: “It’s about being very consistent and making sure that we play with a level of urgency, creation and focus in every action because in the last few games, especially at home, the way we’ve conceded the goals, I’m not too happy about.”
That has been a recurring theme in the four winless games since, with lapses costing them in each. Against Bournemouth, Leandro Trossard’s horrid backpass put William Saliba in trouble and resulted in his dismissal. Against Liverpool, the defence was unlocked by a hopeful ball in behind by Trent Alexander-Arnold for Mohamed Salah’s equaliser.
Opinions differ on this, but Anthony Gordon having the time to weigh up a first-time cross for Alexander Isak was costly at Newcastle. Most recently, the failure to close down Pedro Neto left him ample space and time to equalise at Stamford Bridge.
Post-match, Arteta said of the Neto goal that it was “nowhere near the standards of our defensive habits”.
He is not wrong. The Arsenal manager also sees similar room for improvement in attack, adding: “Sometimes we haven’t had that determination inside the box to make it happen. We are just hoping it will happen, which is something very different in football.”
Art de Roche
Aston Villa: -4pts
Aston Villa’s dip in form was inevitably going to come at some point. Two years of turbo-charged progression under Unai Emery was exceptional, transforming a team that was battered, bruised and just outside the relegation places on goal difference to one which has qualified for two European competitions and is now playing in the Champions League.
Villa’s consistency was demonstrated by the 2-0 defeat at Liverpool being the first time since May 2023 they had lost successive league games and the first time they had lost four straight games under Emery.
The slump, strangely, has coincided with Villa having their best strength in depth ever under Emery and, for a brief period, having every player available.
Performances have not quite recovered since Bournemouth’s last-gasp equaliser a fortnight ago and with the exception of Jhon Duran, who cannot be tactically relied upon to start matches, and Morgan Rogers, who is currently suffering fatigue towards the later stages of games, Villa’s attacking players are all simultaneously going through a lean patch. Leon Bailey is Villa’s only archetypal winger and is short of confidence while Ollie Watkins’ pre-season was only a week long, in which time he had suffered a small injury, impacting his sharpness in the early months.
Emery’s patient and formulaic build-up structure requires pace and precision playing through defensive lines and with Villa’s attacking players short of belief and end product, the system has often been seen to malfunction. Opponents have been effective in crowding centrally and either pressing high or exploiting space on transition, as Liverpool did for their two goals. A lack of goals and the ongoing lack of clean sheets — just one in 11 league matches — has been the chronic issue over the past month.
Jacob Tanswell
Newcastle United: -2pts
It has been a curious first 11 games for Newcastle.
After four fixtures, Eddie Howe’s side had recorded the club’s highest Premier League points tally by that stage of a campaign in 29 years, winning three and drawing one. Yet Newcastle had been entirely unconvincing throughout and arguably could have lost them all.
Following a humbling 3-1 defeat at Fulham on September 21, when their poor form was finally punished, displays gradually began to improve, despite a five-game winless run.
Perversely, positive performances and positive results were simply not aligning.
After 10 games, Newcastle had only scored 10 goals, significantly down on their average of 2.2 goals per match from last season. Alexander Isak’s early-season fitness issues and Callum Wilson’s continued absence (he is yet to feature) left Newcastle without an out-and-out striker for two matches, essentially depriving them of a victory at Everton. Anthony Gordon’s uncertain contract situation also affected his form, before his new deal was agreed last month and his game-defining offensive influence returned.
However, a Carabao Cup last-16 victory over Chelsea, just three days after a 2-1 top-flight defeat at Stamford Bridge, brought renewed confidence and subsequent momentum. In that match, Howe rediscovered the balance which Newcastle had been sorely lacking up until that stage, with Joelinton returning to a wide-forward berth, allowing Joe Willock, Bruno Guimaraes and Sean Longstaff to reunite in midfield against Arsenal. Sandro Tonali has dropped out of the XI and, for now, it appears to be a case of the Italian or Guimaraes, rather than both of them, to benefit the blend of the side.
The 1-0 home win over Arsenal was impressive and that was followed by Newcastle’s best all-round performance of the campaign, a deserved 3-1 victory at in-form Nottingham Forest. That was the first time Newcastle have scored more than two goals in a league fixture this season and the first time they have won by greater than a one-goal margin.
Interestingly, Newcastle actually have the exact points haul they accumulated after 11 games of the 2022-23 campaign, when they went on to finish fourth and qualify for the Champions League. The 11th match of that season marked the first victory of a six-game winning streak. If Newcastle can get even close to replicating that run, then they will put themselves firmly back in the hunt for European qualification.
Chris Waugh
Manchester United: -2pts
To be clear, Erik ten Hag’s men did not begin the 2023-24 season in dazzling form. The Dutchman’s ambitions to turn Manchester United into “the best transition team in the world” ran into problems on opening night, when Wolverhampton Wanderers found it easy to dribble through the large gap in central midfield.
Ange Postecoglou figured out how to disrupt the pressing attempts of United’s front three after one half of football and it took Roberto De Zerbi even less time to do that a few weeks later.
One season later and United have somehow been worse despite spending hundreds of millions of pounds on new players. Ten Hag averaged 1.7 points per game across his 84 Premier League matches; the same total as David Moyes across his single-season tenure.
The Dutchman was in charge for two-and-a-bit seasons and yet it remained difficult to describe his preferred tactical style. Things weren’t helped by the fact Ten Hag was trying to cherry-pick the best parts of every tactic with little regard as to how it would all link together. United tried to press high up the field, but lacked the sort of hard-working diligent players to make it possible. It looked like he wanted to play with a higher defensive line, but his squad didn’t contain enough athletic defenders to make it happen.
And then there were the injuries. Luke Shaw hasn’t featured in a Premier League game since February 2023, and Tyrell Malacia has been out even longer than that with a knee injury. Manchester United — one of the richest clubs in the world — have been without a specialist left-back for close to a calendar year. Ten Hag’s plans in defence and attack stuttered as a result and he had difficulty finding an appropriate Plan B, C or D.
Ten Hag had bad starts in back-to-back Premier League seasons because he was slow to understand opposition coaches could be just as tactically adept as he was. He was either unwilling, or unable to correct things, and he has been replaced by Ruben Amorim as a result.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Kelsea Petersen)
