Ohio State is officially in the College Football Playoff as the No. 8 seed and will host No. 9 seed Tennessee in the first round of the tournament.
If Ohio State wins, it will get a rematch with top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinal.
Before we get too far ahead, here are a few takeaways from the rankings and what’s next for Ohio State.
Ohio State got the toughest draw of host teams
Ryan Day isn’t in a place to complain about Ohio State’s seeding, if he wanted to, he should’ve beat Michigan. So, he didn’t in his news conference on Sunday, instead saying how excited the team was to play.
In reality, though, Sunday’s draw was the one Ohio State didn’t want in terms of first-round difficulty. Ohio State will host Tennessee, while Texas hosts Clemson, Notre Dame hosts Indiana and Penn State hosts SMU.
The sixth seed, where Penn State landed, is the one with the easiest road. The Nittany Lions will play Boise State in the quarterfinals if they beat SMU first.
There’s an argument to be made that Ohio State should’ve been the sixth seed. It has two top-10 wins including a head-to-head win over the Nittany Lions, while Penn State and Texas don’t have a Top 25 win. But the committee seemed to reward Penn State for playing close in the Big Ten Championship Game, something Ohio State could’ve earned if it didn’t lose to Michigan.
To win a national championship, Ohio State would have to beat Tennessee, then potentially Oregon, Texas and one of Georgia or Penn State. Some critics say Day needs to win the national championship to keep his job, but with that run, I’m not sure it’s necessary. However, if he does it, he will have earned every bit of the job security, bonus and likely extension that would come with it.
“Our draw is our draw, Tennessee is coming to our place to play at home,” Day said. “We are here and now we got to go play. There’s been twists and turns and ups and downs, but here we are. This would be an unbelievable accomplishment to go on a run and win the whole thing. You’re four games away, it’s real, it’s on the table.”
Can Ohio State’s offensive line survive the first round and on?
Nobody doubts that Ohio State has one of the most talented rosters in the country or that it could run off four games in a row to win the national title. The Athletic’s Austin Mock has the Buckeyes with the third-best odds to win it all, at 16 percent, just behind Texas (18 percent) and Oregon (21 percent).
The biggest question, though, is can the offensive line hold up for four games?
Tennessee is just as good as Michigan upfront. The Vols enter the Playoff leading the country in yards before contact allowed (.82 yards), according to TruMedia. They have a top-five total defense, top-five scoring defense, top-10 rushing defense and are seventh in pressure rate. This is a really good defensive line.
Ohio State isn’t new to playing good defenses. It played well against Penn State, but in the last two games against Indiana and Michigan, the Buckeyes averaged less than one yard before contact.
That’s a problem, a big one. Ohio State’s defense is good enough to keep it in the game against a Tennessee offense that has been inconsistent under quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Though he’s played well as of late with 11 touchdowns and just one interception in the last five games, he has struggled with consistency. Against Georgia, he had a 60 percent completion percentage, his second-lowest of the season with no touchdown passes.
Ohio State can get pressure on him, but as good as the Buckeyes’ defense is, this Playoff run comes down to the offensive line. Can it function without Seth McLaughlin and Josh Simmons?
Ryan Day said he and his staff were going to evaluate everything this week in practice, but the Buckeyes would likely keep Donovan Jackson at tackle. That means Ohio State will be turning to a young corps of Luke Montgomery, Carson Hinzman, Josh Padilla, Tegra Tshabola or Austin Siereveld along the interior. Some mix of those players will start when Ohio State plays Tennessee.
Ohio State might be able to win that game, with two more weeks until kickoff, but then it has to win three straight games against the potential defensive lines of Oregon, Texas and Georgia.
That’s a test even for a healthy offensive line. Position coach Justin Frye, Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will have to be at their best when it comes to scheming things free in the run game.
“These guys have what it takes to make this run, we have to help them,” Day said. “I think there are ways to do that. We haven’t done a lot of practicing, we’ve been out there twice and we’ll get a big week of practice this week, but we have to go put it on the field. There’s a lot of ways we can do it and we will.”
Pressure is on for Ohio State, no matter what they say
The College Football Playoff brings added pressure with a national championship on the line, but Day said he doesn’t feel it.
“We want to make sure when we go into this game we play free, focused on winning the game and not worried about the consequences,” Day said.
That’s the version of Day that Ohio State needs in this Playoff.
Whether he wants to admit it, Day has a lot of pressure on him to win right now. Job security aside, Ohio State spent all offseason saying it’s “natty or bust.” The pressure is self-inflicted.
Ohio State hasn’t handled that well under Day, but one of the best games Ohio State played in recent memory was the 2022 Peach Bowl loss to Georgia. That felt like Day at his best as a play caller and the Buckeyes tallied 467 yards of total offense but lost 42-41 on a missed field goal because it didn’t have an elite defense like it does now.
If Ohio State has that version of Day, Ohio State might just have a chance to make a deep run.
Prediction and path to the national title
Since the bracket came out I’ve gone back and forth on a prediction.
Like I said earlier, Ohio State has the toughest draw of any first-round team and I don’t think the offensive line can last four games in a row. But I think the Buckeyes can scheme up ways to beat Tennessee in a low-scoring affair. From then on, though, it’s tough.
I watched the Big Ten title game and thought “How in the world do you stop Oregon’s offense?” Well, Ohio State needs that answer, but the Buckeyes have also been lights out since that loss in October. I just don’t think Ohio State’s offensive line can turn around quickly against an Oregon team with three weeks’ rest and a healthy Jordan Burch back in the lineup. Will Josh Fryar block Burch? I don’t like that matchup for Ohio State.
I could see this rematch going either way, but for now, I’ll side with Oregon while reserving the opportunity to change it after the Tennessee game. I do think whichever team wins the Rose Bowl will win the national championship. I feel confident in that pick because I’ve thought for much of the season that these are the two best teams in the country. I don’t feel any different now.
(Photo of wide receiver Brandon Inniss: Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA Today via Imagn Images)
