Earlier this week, my colleague Sam Amick analyzed the NBA teams that have already turned off the panic meter by playing better. I have been sent to balance that out with tocsin.
Here are some teams that are experiencing various degrees of panic entering the second quarter of the NBA season. Every team has played at least 20 games now, and no team has a goal of being in turmoil, so I’ll measure how real any level of panic should be at this point (on a scale of Coldplay “Don’t Panic” ⚠️ to Panic! at the Disco ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️).
Denver Nuggets
Preseason win total (via BetMGM): 51.5
W-L: 11-9
Panic meter:⚠️⚠️⚠️
Last week, the Nuggets returned home from Los Angeles and gave up 145 points to the New York Knicks in a losing effort. Denver coach Michael Malone was asked whether it was the kind of game he could “flush,” and Malone wasn’t having any of that.
“No, we’re not flushing,” Malone said after repeatedly shaking his head. “You don’t flush when you get embarrassed. You don’t flush when you gave up 145 points. You don’t flush when you didn’t play hard, you didn’t play with effort, you didn’t play with physicality. I’m not flushing anything.”
Now, a team can have bad moments in a season, and that was an extreme one for the Nuggets. But Denver is building certain consistent traits this season that don’t reflect well on its ability to rejoin the field of contenders. Entering Thursday’s games, the Nuggets ranked 20th in defensive efficiency. That’s their lowest mark since ranking 23rd in 2017-18, the last time Denver missed the postseason. The Nuggets still have reigning NBA MVP Nikola Jokić doing more than ever, so that is always going to be a source of relief. But it’s also a source of concern given that Denver hasn’t been better with Jokić playing at the high level he’s reached this season.
Indiana Pacers
Preseason win total: 46.5
W-L: 9-14
Panic meter:⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
This time last year, the Pacers were ripping a hole through NBA defenses, even with how relatively defenseless they were. Once the Pacers rebalanced the roster with the acquisition of forward Pascal Siakam to go alongside All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton, they not only made their first postseason in four years but also won their first playoff series in 10 years before bowing out in the Eastern Conference finals.
The Pacers were contenders, brought everyone back and earned the right to build off the foundation they set in 2023-24. So what has happened this season?
The defense that was bottom five before the All-Star break last season and improved to 18th after the break is ranked 25th in the NBA. The bigger concern, however, is that the Haliburton-led offense isn’t the best in the league … or good … or even average. The Pacers have been one of the 10 worst offenses in the league, ranking dead last in second-chance points while attempting 5.5 fewer field goals per game than last season. Their best players are playing, but even with regression being a factor, the Pacers shouldn’t be this dull on their way to losses.
Los Angeles Lakers
Preseason win total: 43.5
W-L: 12-10
Panic meter:⚠️⚠️
I debated whether to include the Lakers on this list. We’re talking about a team that has been no better than seventh in the Western Conference every season since 2012, except for the championship season in 2020.
But they’re the Lakers, and no other team was set to be showcased more often this season — not even the defending NBA champions or last year’s top seed in the Western Conference:
If national TV games rankings were standings predictions, West version
(most ABC/TNT/ESPN games, NBATV not included)
LAL (27)
GS (24)
DAL (23)
DEN (22)
PHO (19)
MIN (18)OKC (15)
SA (13)MEM (9)
LAC (9)NO (9)
SAC (6)
HOU (3)
UTA (2)
POR (1)— Law Murray ⚛️ (@LawMurrayTheNU) August 15, 2024
If national TV games rankings were standings predictions, East version
(most ABC/TNT/ESPN games, NBATV not included for what should be obvious reasons)
BOS (26)
NY (24)
PHI (21)
MIL (17)
IND (9)
CLE (8)MIA (7)
ORL (5)ATL (2)
CHI (2)BRK (1)
WAS (1)
CHA (1)
DET (1)
TOR (1)— Law Murray ⚛️ (@LawMurrayTheNU) August 15, 2024
So here we are, discussing whether we should panic about the Lakers. You can change the coach and the point guard, but some things remain the same. The reality is, the Lakers are probably right around where they are supposed to be. They just finished a stretch of five games in seven days, then played four games in four time zones. On Friday, they end a four-game road trip.
They’re led by a player who turns 40 years old soon and a center who would like to not play the position much, and both of those players were relied on heavily in the Paris Olympics this past summer. And while the Lakers are over .500, only eight teams have a worse point differential, as they’re getting outscored by 4.3 points per game. This comes after the Lakers outscored their opponents by just 49 points last season; that ranked only 19th, but it was a positive number nonetheless.
If you had high expectations for the Lakers this season, then I guess you should panic. But if you’ve paid attention to the Lakers before JJ Redick was hired as coach, then you realize any panic is performative. More or less, this is who they are.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Preseason win total: 51.5
W-L: 11-10
Panic meter:⚠️⚠️
I asked Timberwolves coach Chris Finch recently about the idea of balancing outside noise and perceived “panic” with being real with your team about not meeting certain standards. Finch, known for being a straight shooter who isn’t above calling out his team for “immature” performances even in seasons that exceed expectations, acknowledged that a new season calls for a new understanding of context when it comes to some wins and losses.
“It’s very hard at the beginning of the season, NBA-wise, because you just don’t know the context of a lot of things,” Finch said recently before a 28-point road win against the LA Clippers. “What might feel like a bad loss one night, that team might end up third or fourth in the conference. So you just don’t know. You try to maintain a perspective there. What you have to focus on is, are you playing to the standard that you set down and (trying) to get your team to play to that standard of what they’re capable of?”
Minnesota’s dethroning of the champion Nuggets in the West semifinals last season is exactly the kind of moment that raises expectations for a franchise the following year. And, as Finch also is conscious of, making a trade that sends out a star like Karl-Anthony Towns while acquiring players who require adjustments such as Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo could be the kind of event that causes a team to start slowly.
The Timberwolves are playing a lot more close games this season and have been shakier in those games as well. That is the mark of a more average team. But they also just held the Lakers and Clippers to 80 points each in back-to-back games. Perhaps the Timberwolves will build off their recent surge that has them back over .500.
“If you look around the league, with the exception of a handful of teams, it feels like everybody’s going through it at some point,” Finch said. “Some of that is the parity in the league right now, certainly in the West. So hopefully we’ve gone through a rough patch and we can start to stack some better performances on top of each other. We try not to panic, we’re not really panicking, but we do have to have a sense of urgency to play a little bit better. And we’re doing that.”
New Orleans Pelicans
Preseason win total: 46.5
W-L: 5-18
Panic meter:⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️
Even with all of the injuries and availability issues, New Orleans’ start has been disastrous. The only players to appear in all 23 games are Javonte Green and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado each have missed more than half of New Orleans’ games. Brandon Ingram is in the final year of his contract and just changed representation, making potential buy/sell pivot points more acute with the Pelicans needing to gather information about what this season is supposed to look like.
The Pelicans have probably four to six weeks to see if they can approach a late winter run at the Play-In Tournament. This season isn’t about whether they can meet expectations. It’s now about who is a part of this team’s next phase.
Philadelphia 76ers
Preseason win total: 51.5
W-L: 5-15
Panic meter:⚠️⚠️⚠️
The Sixers would need to finish 47-15 to exceed their preseason win total this season. That’s like going from The Process 76ers to the 1983 champion 76ers.
A 50-win season is not a likely outcome for this Sixers team, but since the NBA expanded to 16 playoff teams in 1984, five teams have started 5-15 or worse and found their way into the postseason. Two of them, the 2004 Miami Heat and 2005 Chicago Bulls, even had winning records after starting 5-15.
The optimism that league precedent can present still exists for Philadelphia. The question is whether the star trio of Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey still exists. That three-man lineup has only been on the floor for six ill-fated minutes in Memphis this season.
Embiid isn’t healthy. George is healthy for now but is in his 15th NBA season and searching for consistency. Maxey is healthy but maxed out in his role while shooting a career-low 40.9 percent from the field.
The expectation in Philly wasn’t to make the playoffs or win a playoff series. It was to make only the second conference finals appearance since 1985, if not get all the way to the NBA Finals and play for a championship. Outside of rookie Jared McCain, the Sixers roster doesn’t seem strong enough to make the noise they were expected to make. At least they’re in the right conference to suggest holding on and playing things out.
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(Photo of Tyrese Haliburton: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
