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The big board has arrived! Plus: Ken on Gerrit Cole’s compromise, there’s more bad news in Atlanta and details on Skip Schumaker’s somewhat surprising landing spot. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Let’s Rank: The free agency big board is here
This one is worth bookmarking for the next few months. Our team has assembled a list of the top 40 free agents this year, along with best team fits for them and projected contracts. It will be updated as the signings begin. A few notes:
- No. 3 on the list is Japanese phenom starting pitcher Roki Sasaki, but he might not actually become available. He’s still just 23 years old, so if he is posted, he’ll go through a similar process that Shohei Ohtani did: a minor-league deal, with his signing bonus capped by the bonus pool system (à la Latin American prospects). If he waits until he’s 25, he would be able to sign as a “professional” (for one example, see Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year deal worth $325 million).
- Juan Soto is, yes, the top name on the list. The 26-year-old superstar outfielder is the prize of this year’s class. Tim Britton’s contract projection is 13 years and $611 million. Oh, and it’s not likely to be as deferral-heavy as Ohtani’s deal.
- The 30-year-old starting pitchers at Nos. 20 and 21 are very interesting to me: Shane Bieber has a Cy Young award (2020) and two other top-10 finishes (2019, 2022). He allowed no runs in 12 innings (with a 20-to-1 K/BB rate!) in 2024 before Tommy John surgery ended his season. He may come at a short-term discount, allowing him to prove he’s still got it. Walker Buehler, on the other hand, struggled upon returning from a slew of injuries, but emerged heroically in the postseason. That’s a small sample size, but if that’s the version of Buehler who is available, the lack of a qualifying offer from the Dodgers should make him even more attractive.
- No. 7 on the list is Alex Bregman, who recently underwent surgery to remove a bone chip from his right elbow. He’s expected to be at full strength by spring training.
Ken’s Notebook: Insight on Cole, plus Ross’ possible return
From my latest notes column:
A sensible compromise with Cole
The New York Yankees shrewdly called Gerrit Cole’s bluff, declining to void his opt-out by extending his contract by one year and $36 million in 2029, his age-38 season. Still, the team could be motivated to give Cole some type of extension beyond his remaining four years and $144 million, even if it’s not at the original number.
Two factors should motivate the Yankees: A desire to maintain good-faith relationships with Cole and his agent, Scott Boras, who also represents the Yankees’ No. 1 free-agent target, outfielder Juan Soto. And a desire to lower the luxury-tax hit they are taking on Cole’s contract.
The “Steve Cohen” fourth luxury-tax threshold will be $301 million next season, and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner seems disinclined to exceed that figure for a second straight year. Even a minor reduction in Cole’s $36 million average annual value could help the Yankees create more flexibility from a luxury-tax perspective.
Luxury-tax numbers for multiyear contracts are derived from their AAVs. If Cole agreed to a $6 million guarantee for his extra year, with the chance to make tens of millions more in incentives, his AAV would reduce to $30 million. If he agreed to a $16 million guarantee, his AAV would be $32 million.
Cole and Boras likely would want as large a guarantee as possible, but they already know they’re not getting $36 million. As presently constituted, Cole’s career earnings by the end of his current deal will be nearly $350 million. By taking less in his additional year, he could rightly claim he was trying to help the team — and come out looking better for it.
David Ross to return?
The Baltimore Orioles are interested in David Ross for their bench coach vacancy, according to sources familiar with the team’s process. Whether Ross would want the job, if the Orioles indeed offered it, is not known.
A year ago, Ross rebuffed the Yankees’ interest in hiring him to replace Carlos Mendoza as their bench coach. The Chicago Cubs had just fired Ross as manager to hire Craig Counsell. Ross, if he jumped back into a uniformed position immediately, only wanted to manage.
Might things be different for Ross a year later, now that the shock of his dismissal presumably has worn off? If so, the Orioles would seem a logical fit. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde was the Cubs’ first-base coach when Ross was a catcher with the team in 2015-16, and the two remain close.
The Orioles created an opening at bench coach after firing Fredi Gonzalez along with co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller and major-league coach Jose Fernandez at the end of the season.
More here.
Worries: Atlanta braving more bad news
The Atlanta Braves would probably like to be finished with 2024 and its never-ending parade of injuries. Well, it’s not 2025 just yet.
This week, we learned that RF Ronald Acuña Jr. (left ACL) and RHP Spencer Strider (right UCL) — who might be the two best players on the team — are not expected to be ready for Opening Day.
Additionally, set-up man RHP Joe Jiménez had surgery on his knee after the season, and is expected to miss the entire 2025 season. Jiménez had a 2.62 ERA with 82 strikeouts and 23 walks in 68 2/3 innings last year.
For the outfield — as David O’Brien mentioned in the above-linked story — Atlanta has a few internal options who could serve as a stopgap until Acuña’s return, including Jared Kelenic, Ramón Laureano and Eli White.
In the rotation, however, Strider isn’t the only one they’ll need to replace by Opening Day, since Max Fried is also a free agent. The Orioles could, of course, work out a return for Fried, but even if they do, he would join Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach, leaving one open spot.
They did just acquire Griffin Canning from the Angels via trade. They could also bring back free agent Charlie Morton (who turns 41 next week) for another year, but they may be aiming higher. According to Mark Bowman at MLB.com, Atlanta has eyes on 34-year-old free agent Nathan Eovaldi, most recently of the Texas Rangers.
Musical Chairs: Skip Schumaker part of Rangers re-org
One mystery of this offseason has been solved: Where will Skip Schumaker land? Schumaker, who managed the Marlins for the last two years (and was named NL Manager of the Year in 2023) was thought to be one of the better managers available to fill one of the vacancies around the league.
Instead, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, he’ll be serving as a senior adviser to Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young. In addition, Luis Urueta — who served as Schumaker’s bench coach in Miami — is expected to take that same job in Texas, filling the role recently vacated by Will Venable (who took the White Sox managerial position).
That’s not the only move in Texas. Assistant GM Ross Fenstermaker has been promoted to general manager. It’s becoming de rigueur in MLB for the president of baseball operations to be the guy in charge, with a GM working just beneath him. That was the role that Young initially stepped into, working under former PBO Jon Daniels.
When Daniels was let go at the end of the 2022 season, Young assumed both roles over the last two seasons. Now, Fenstermaker moves up, and Grant also reports that Rays director of baseball operations Cole Figueroa is the leading candidate to backfill the assistant GM role vacated by Fenstermaker.
One last move: The team also hired Justin Viele as hitting coach to replace Tim Hyers, who took the same job in Atlanta. Viele joins fellow former Giants coach Donnie Ecker on the Rangers bench.
More personnel news: The Padres have extended manager Mike Shildt.
Handshakes and High Fives
Shohei Ohtani’s left shoulder injury during the World Series was worse than we thought. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, but is expected to be ready by Opening Day. In other Dodgers news: It looks like Mookie Betts is moving (back) to the infield next year.
Speaking of position moves: The last time Willson Contreras moved positions (from catcher to left field), it was a short-lived experiment. With Paul Goldschmidt gone, the Cardinals are trying again, this time moving Contreras to first base.
Will Sammon and Katie Woo report from the GM meetings on a trio of free agents — Willy Adames, Jesse Winker and Blake Snell — and notes from a few teams, including the Orioles’ search for starting pitching.
Jim Bowden runs through the offseason needs and goals for all 30 teams.
The Hall of Fame’s Classic Baseball Era Committee has revealed its list of eight candidates for this year’s vote. Tyler Kepner makes the case for (and against) each. On the ballot: Luis Tiant. His son spoke to Steve Buckley about the emotions raised by the timing.
It looks like long-time Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is getting a shot elsewhere: with the Angels.
What’s a qualifying offer, who got one, and why are they important? Your answers lie here.
Most-clicked in Monday’s newsletter: Bowden’s list of 25 offseason predictions for signings, trades and more.
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(Top photo: Eric Espada / Getty Images)
