Despite owner Joe Pohlad repeatedly refusing to answer all payroll-related questions during an end-of-season interview, Minnesota Twins sources with knowledge of the situation insist the team doesn’t have further payroll cuts planned next year after slashing spending from $160 million in 2023 to $130 million in 2024.
Of course, even if we assume that’s true — at this point, Twins ownership has earned every ounce of skepticism and then some — it should hardly be spun as a positive when the average MLB payroll was over $170 million in 2024. Relative to the rest of the league, the Twins have already returned to Metrodome-era spending, roughly 25 percent below the average team.
Beyond that, handing the front office just $130 million to work with for 2025 is especially limiting because the Twins’ existing roster already projects to make $130-135 million as is. That means they would start the offseason with zero or perhaps even negative spending room, and that’s accounting for all of their six departing free agents coming off the books.
Considering the payroll situation, should the Twins try to re-sign any of the impending free agents, several of whom are prominent names? Let’s take a look.
Max Kepler, RF
Max Kepler signed with the Twins out of Germany as a 16-year-old in 2009, part of the same international prospect class as Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sanó. After nearly a decade in the majors and 15 years in the organization, his Twins career likely came to a premature end due to knee, hip and groin injuries that forced him to sit out the final four weeks of the season.
It was an ugly season for Kepler even before the September shut down. He hit just .253/.302/.380 in 105 games for a career-worst 91 OPS+, meaning he was nine percent below league average. That included hitting .230/.275/.317 with four homers and a 61-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his final 75 games, as Kepler’s usual power and plate discipline abandoned him at age 31.
“It’s not the way I’d like to go out as a Twin, but then again, s— happens,” Kepler said. “I’m proud of myself for what I’ve done as an individual, as a teammate, as a friend to everyone in this clubhouse. I obviously want to go out on a higher note, but if I look at, what, 15 years of my life, half my life as a Twin, I don’t think I could have done much more as a kid from Berlin.”
Sweet pregame interview moment, as Max Kepler told Jorge Polanco how much it means to make a playoff run with him after more than a decade together in the Twins organization.
They were roommates after signing with the Twins as 16-year-olds in the 2009 international class. pic.twitter.com/qVWw7Wqyho
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) October 8, 2023
Kepler was an above-average hitter for just three of his nine full seasons in Minnesota, including only one of the past four years. Despite typically being treated like an everyday player when other left-handed Twins hitters were platooned, he’s hit .221/.292/.363 versus lefties for his career. No one in Twins history has more plate appearances and a lower OPS against lefties.
All of which would make it impossible for Twins to feel confident betting on Kepler’s future, though he remains a very good, largely underrated right fielder even with diminished speed. They have 27-year-old Trevor Larnach and 26-year-old Matt Wallner as younger, cheaper corner outfielders with lefty bats, plus 21-year-old prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez coming soon.
Kepler ranks 16th in Twins history with 1,072 games, and 13 of the top 15 are in the team Hall of Fame, but it’s hard to imagine the front office pushing to re-sign Kepler even if his free-agent market proves tepid.
Carlos Santana, 1B
In general, the Twins have been reluctant to bring back veteran free-agent signings who fared well on inexpensive one-year deals, opting not to press their luck. But if they’re going to make an exception, Carlos Santana would seemingly be it. Signed for $5.25 million in February, the 38-year-old turned back the clock for his best season since 2019.
It didn’t look promising when Santana hit .141 in his first 20 games, but he rewarded the Twins’ patience by batting .253/.342/.460 with a team-leading 23 homers in his final 130 games to finish with a solid 109 OPS+ overall. But it was his defense that really stood out, as he constantly robbed hits, saved would-be errors and led MLB first basemen with 14 Outs Above Average.
“Santana played a huge role for us this year, defensively and offensively,” president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “I knew the defense would be good, but it was absolutely Gold Glove caliber. And the offense came along with it, too.”
Crushed by Carlos 😤 pic.twitter.com/VdK0H78VTH
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 15, 2024
Santana was one of the Twins’ five most valuable players and well-liked in the clubhouse, but even great players are big risks to decline rapidly at age 39. Not everyone is Nelson Cruz, and prior to Santana beating expectations in 2024, he posted a combined 93 OPS+ from 2020-23, well below average at first base. Even this year, he hit just .219/.318/.358 versus right-handers.
However, the Twins don’t have any obvious in-house replacements at first base, as the fielding drop-off to Jose Miranda or Edouard Julien might be too much to stomach and Alex Kirilloff’s injury history makes him a major question mark (and a non-tender candidate). Even with their tight payroll situation, re-signing Santana to a similar one-year deal would make sense.
“Carlos was awesome for us,” Falvey said. “We’re not ruling out anything for the future for him. I know his free agency is coming.”
Caleb Thielbar, RP
Caleb Thielbar is one of the most unlikely success stories in Twins history, rising from independent ball to the majors from 2013-15 and then basically coming out of retirement to rejoin his hometown team five years later. Over two stints and eight total seasons in a Twins uniform, the left-hander from Randolph, Minn., went 23-12 with a 3.38 ERA and 347 strikeouts in 320 innings.
Now a first-time free agent at age 37, he’ll have to take a pay cut from this year’s $3.8 million salary to continue playing, but Thielbar showed in the second half that he still has a little gas left in the tank. He carried a bloated 8.04 ERA as of mid-June, but got his mechanics back on track and posted a 3.98 ERA with 35 strikeouts in his final 31 2/3 innings.
Caleb Thielbar inducing his first double play all-season to help the Twins clinch a spot in the ALDS 🔥 pic.twitter.com/cOAe0LCgnT
— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) October 6, 2023
Near the end of the season, Thielbar made it clear he doesn’t plan to retire, noting his raw stuff is better than ever. Sure enough, his fastball averaged a career-high 93.2 mph in 2024, way up from 90.8 mph in 2013, his first season with the Twins. While perhaps no longer a setup-caliber arm, he still seems capable of being a useful second or third lefty in a bullpen.
It’s possible that could happen with the Twins, particularly if he’s willing to sign an inexpensive one-year contract or perhaps even a non-guaranteed minor-league deal. But it’s also possible the Twins will want to remake the left-handed part of their bullpen entirely after Thielbar, Steven Okert and Kody Funderburk combined for a 5.62 ERA in 117 innings.
Kyle Farmer, IF
Nearly everyone, including Kyle Farmer himself, was surprised when the Twins retained him for $6.5 million via arbitration. And the decision proved to be a mistake, as the 33-year-old utility infielder ceased being used as the Twins’ primary backup shortstop and hit just .214/.293/.353 for an 82 OPS+ in 242 plate appearances.
Farmer is viewed as a clubhouse leader and he was much more productive after returning from a shoulder injury in mid-August, hitting .253/.297/.494 with five homers over his last 91 plate appearances. Still, declining his $6.25 million option in favor of a $250,000 buyout should be an even easier call for the Twins than it seemed to be last offseason.
Manuel Margot, OF
Brought in to replace Michael A. Taylor as Byron Buxton insurance, it was immediately apparent manager Rocco Baldelli didn’t trust Manuel Margot in center field. And for good reason, as the former defensive standout lost a step at age 29. He played just 136 innings in center field, compared to 288 in left field and 264 in right field, and Margot was shaky in all three spots.
He wasn’t much better offensively, hitting .238/.289/.337 for a career-worst 76 OPS+ in 343 plate appearances, including breaking the MLB record for pinch-hitting futility by going 0-for-30. His contract has a 2025 option worth $12 million or a $2 million buyout covered by the Los Angeles Dodgers, so it will be a no-brainer for the Twins to part ways with Margot.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP
Acquired from the Seattle Mariners in January as part of the Jorge Polanco trade, the Twins hoped Anthony DeSclafani could capably fill the last spot in the rotation for at least a few months, delaying their need to dip into minor-league starter depth. Instead, he never threw a pitch for the Twins, needing season-ending elbow surgery late in spring training. He won’t be back.
(Photo of Max Kepler and Carlos Santana: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
