1. Home
  3. Sport

Twins future value big board: Ranking the top 20 players based on long-term upside

25 October 2024Last Update :
Twins future value big board: Ranking the top 20 players based on long-term upside

When various national prospect hubs published their midseason rankings following the MLB Draft, the Minnesota Twins were universally regarded as having an elite farm system. MLB.com (No. 2), Baseball America (No. 3) and ESPN (No. 4) placed them in the top four league wide and as many as six Twins prospects regularly appeared on top-100 lists.

That was the highest the Twins’ farm system has ranked in a decade, but it lasted about a month. Because as soon as Brooks Lee, David Festa, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson graduated out of prospect status by surpassing 50 innings or 130 at-bats in the majors, they technically ceased being part of the farm system that then gets “punished” for doing its job well.

It’s the biggest flaw of using prospects as the default method to evaluate an organization’s future outlook. Nothing about the now-former prospects has actually changed aside from labels, and if anything, logging substantial time in the big leagues should be seen as a positive. Placing such a firm dividing line between “top prospect” and “young major leaguer” is often misleading.

All of which is why, after every season, I blend together prospects and non-prospects for a big-picture ranking of future value to the Twins, factoring in age and years of team control. For example, Willi Castro was recently voted team MVP, but he’ll also be a free agent after 2025, so his future value to the Twins is less than many other players, including prospects yet to debut.

Here’s my big board of the Twins’ top players for future value based on age, upside, team control and cost, which also happens to double as a ranking of their most desirable hypothetical trade assets.

1. Walker Jenkins, CF

Season age in 2025: 20
Years of team control: 6
Last year’s rank: No. 2

Jenkins is the Twins’ best all-around prospect since Byron Buxton a decade ago. Selected out of high school with the No. 5 pick in a stacked 2023 draft, Jenkins ended his first full season with a Double-A promotion, nearly six months ahead of his 20th birthday and despite missing most of the first two months with an Opening Day hamstring injury.

Jenkins is a 6-foot-3, five-tool outfielder, who looks like he was designed in a lab to be a baseball player. He’s hit .302/.400/.473 in 108 games, controlling the strike zone with more walks (65) than strikeouts (61), flashing gap-to-gap power with 44 extra-base hits and showing high-end speed with 23 steals while receiving positive reviews in center field defensively.

His homer totals are modest so far, but Twins officials believe Jenkins has 30-homer potential and he’s drawn scouting comparisons to MVP-winning left-handed bats Larry Walker and Josh Hamilton. Based on the consensus top-10 prospect’s undeniable upside and how aggressively the Twins have pushed him, Jenkins could reach the majors in 2025, as a 20-year-old.

2. Royce Lewis, 3B

Season age in 2025: 26
Years of team control: 4
Last year’s rank: No. 1

Through his first 2 1/2 seasons in the majors, it looked like injuries were the only thing keeping Lewis from being a superstar, but he experienced something new in 2024: on-field struggles. Lewis was doing his usual thing through mid-August, posting a 1.000 OPS between injured list stints, but he finished the season by hitting .191 with one homer in his final 42 games.

Lewis talked openly about being worn down in September as he topped 80 games for the first time since 2019, before back-to-back season-ending knee surgeries and a handful of other injuries. He’s become known for returning from long absences and making an immediate impact, but it’s easy to forget Lewis is 25 years old and has played a total of just 152 games in a Twins uniform.

Like most hitters with minimal big-league experience, Lewis needs to make adjustments at the plate, in the field and off the field to reach his full upside. In other words, he’s human. The durability questions may never go away, and losing speed and athleticism puts his long-term defensive home in flux, but Lewis is a career .268/.327/.497 hitter that is under club control through 2028.

3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF

Season age in 2025: 22
Years of team control: 6
Last year’s rank: No. 7

Rodriguez cemented his status as a consensus top-30 prospect by crushing Double-A pitching at age 21, but wasn’t able to prove he could stay healthy by injuring and then re-injuring his right thumb. He made the most of his 47 healthy games, batting .280/.459/.567 with nine homers, 25 total extra-base hits, nine steals and an eye-popping 51 walks.

Rodriguez has top-of-the-scale plate discipline, rarely swinging at pitches outside of the zone and drawing 223 walks in 230 games since signing for $2.5 million as a 16-year-old in 2019. When he does swing, the ball explodes off his bat. Still, Rodriguez constantly being in deep counts also leads to plenty of strikeouts and a middling .250 career batting average.

What makes Rodriguez such a high-upside prospect is having the offensive approach of a grizzled veteran slugger while also being a good athlete with above-average speed. Imagine a late-career Jim Thome in a 5-foot-11 center fielder’s body. It’s an uncommon, intriguing profile. And after a late-season Triple-A promotion, he’s in line to debut for the Twins in 2025 … if healthy.

4. Brooks Lee, SS/2B/3B

Season age in 2025: 24
Years of team control: 6
Last year’s rank: No. 3

Lee missed the first two months of the season following a spring training back injury, but still managed to make his MLB debut in July and played a big second-half role for the Twins. His rookie showing was a mixed bag. He looked capable at shortstop and really good at second base and third base, but struggled to drive the ball despite making lots of contact.

Lee struck out in a team-low 14.6 percent of his plate appearances, but was near the bottom of MLB in exit velocity and hard-hit rate while batting just .221/.265/.320 with three homers and six doubles in 50 games. Some of that can likely be attributed to an August shoulder injury, and Lee slugged .606 with eight homers in 25 games for Triple-A St. Paul.

No one expected Lee to be a power hitter, but his struggles against fastballs and impulse to chase low pitches were discouraging to see for a hitter known as a line-drive machine. Still, there’s a lot to like defensively, and his bat-to-ball skills are a good baseline for offensive growth. Lee should be a solid regular as soon as 2025, and if some power arrives, he has All-Star potential.

5. Matt Wallner, COF

Season age in 2025: 27
Years of team control: 5
Last year’s rank: No. 10

Wallner has had to work for every chance he’s gotten, spending long stretches in the minors before ultimately ranking as one of the Twins’ best hitters in back-to-back years. His high-strikeout style lends itself to slumps and skepticism, and Wallner is already 26 years old, despite totaling just 169 games in a Twins uniform, but he’s been an absolute monster at the plate.

He’s batted .251/.366/.500 with 29 homers and 62 total extra-base hits over 580 plate appearances for a 139 OPS+. That’s good enough for third in Twins history through age 26, behind Harmon Killebrew (150) and Tony Oliva (146). Wallner is too whiff prone for high batting averages, but he generally avoids pitches out of the zone and when he connects no one hits the ball harder or farther.

It takes a while to get his sturdy 6-foot-4 frame moving, but once underway, Wallner is speedier than he looks and the former college pitcher’s elite outfield arm helps make up for middling range and instincts. Having logged just one full year of service time, Wallner will be minimum salaried through 2026 and team controlled through 2029, giving him immense surplus value.

6. Bailey Ober, SP

Season age in 2025: 29
Years of team control: 3
Last year’s rank: No. 9

Ober got rocked for eight runs in his first 2024 start and then posted a 3.60 ERA in his next 30 starts. It was his third straight season with an ERA under 4.00, and Ober logged a career-high 179 innings to answer any lingering durability questions. Once a marginal prospect with high-80s velocity, he’s developed into a reliable mid-rotation starter with 484 strikeouts in 471 innings.

Johan Santana (141 ERA+), Ervin Santana (116) and Brad Radke (113) are the only Twins starters in the past 30 years with more career innings and a better ERA+ than Ober (112). He’s under team control for three more years via arbitration and will remain a tremendous bargain for 2025, especially if his dramatically improved changeup leads to a further breakthrough.

7. Joe Ryan, SP

Season age in 2025: 29
Years of team control: 3
Last year’s rank: No. 8

Ober and Ryan are back-to-back on this list for the second straight year. They’re the same age, with the same team control through 2027 and similar career numbers. Ober has been more consistent and Ryan hasn’t sustained his best work for a full season, but the value proposition is identical: three years of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter for what will likely be around $30 million.

Both pitchers are capable of having $30 million worth of value in one year, let alone three. Ryan seemed on track for that in the middle of the past two seasons before groin and shoulder injuries got in the way. He’s expected to be healthy for 2025 coming off a season in which he posted a 3.60 ERA with 147 strikeouts in 135 innings while showing increased velocity.

8. Byron Buxton, CF

Season age in 2025: 31
Years of team control: 4
Last year’s rank: N/A

Buxton was absent from last year’s list following a season compromised by knee problems, but 2024 was a comeback story. He returned to center field with his elite range largely intact, played 100 games for the first time since 2017, hit .279/.335/.524 to place second among MLB center fielders in OPS behind Aaron Judge and ranked second on the Twins in bWAR and WPA.

Because of his injury history, much is made of Buxton’s contract paying him $15 million per season from 2023-28. However, that’s not even one of the 100 highest salaries in MLB and he produced 3.6 bWAR in 2024, which carries a standard valuation of $28.8 million. This list is about providing excess value and Buxton has it again with four years and $60 million left on his deal.

9. David Festa, SP

Season age in 2025: 25
Years of team control: 6
Last year’s rank: No. 15

Festa entered 2024 as the Twins’ top pitching prospect and showed why by joining the rotation full time coming out of the All-Star break and posting a 3.81 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 54 second-half innings. Festa averaged 94.7 mph with his fastball, but that pitch actually got hit hard while his slider and changeup generated tons of whiffs and far less hard contact.

Festa will need to refine his control and get better at going through lineups multiple times, but combining a mid-90s fastball with bat-missing off-speed pitches to combat both righties (slider) and lefties (changeup) is a reliably straightforward recipe for success. He’s firmly in Minnesota’s rotation plans for 2025 and the 6-foot-6 right-hander has front-line starter upside.

10. Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF

Season age in 2025: 22
Years of team control: 6
Last year’s rank: N/A

Keaschall was the Twins’ minor league player of the year in his first full season, as the 2023 second-round pick hit .303/.420/.483 with 15 homers and 23 steals in 102 games before having planned elbow surgery in August. He delayed surgery until late in the season by working mostly at first base and designated hitter instead of second base and center field.

He fared well for 58 games against Double-A pitching before being shut down, setting him up to possibly play a second-half role for the Twins in 2025 if his recovery goes smoothly. He flashes 20-homer power without lots of strikeouts, has strong plate discipline at 22 and is an above-average runner, a well-rounded skill set that makes him a top-100 prospect.

11. Griffin Jax, RP

Season age in 2025: 30
Years of team control: 3
Last year’s rank: N/A

After two seasons as a good setup man, Jax broke through as one of MLB’s elite relievers and passed Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ top bullpen arm with a 2.03 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings. His average fastball has soared from 92.6 to 97.1 mph since shifting to relief and his slider is a true weapon. He has three years of team control left, although Jax will be 30 in 2025.

12. Jhoan Duran, RP

Season age in 2025: 27
Years of team control: 3
Last year’s rank: No. 6

Duran took a major step backward in 2024, losing velocity and strikeouts without a satisfying explanation. Perhaps the human arm just isn’t meant to throw 102-104 mph for long. He was still plenty effective throwing 99-101 mph, but Duran wasn’t as reliably dominant as his first two seasons and finished with a 3.64 ERA. Does the 2022/2023 peak version of Duran still exist?

13. Pablo López, SP

Season age in 2025: 29
Years of team control: 3
Last year’s rank: No. 5

López, like Buxton, is a star-caliber player on a large but reasonable contract that leaves some room for surplus value. After making $8 million in 2024, his salary will jump to $21.5 million in each of the next three years. López produced 2.5, 3.3 and 3.0 bWAR in his last three seasons, respectively, an average value of $23.5 million, but his days of being a bargain are likely over.

14. Zebby Matthews, SP

Season age in 2025: 25
Years of team control: 6
Last year’s rank: N/A

Matthews ascended from High-A Cedar Rapids to the Twins’ rotation in three months, making it easy to brush off a homer-filled MLB debut that also included 43 strikeouts in 38 innings. He has mid-rotation potential after upping his velocity to the mid-90s without sacrificing elite control, posting a jaw-dropping 114-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 97 innings in the minors.

15. Jose Miranda, 3B/1B

Season age in 2025: 27
Years of team control: 4
Last year’s rank: No. 19

Miranda has faded or been hurt down the stretch in each of his three seasons, making it tricky to assess his upside. He looks like a tweener — not good enough defensively to be a full-time third baseman, but not great enough offensively to star at first base or designated hitter. He’s certainly a nice secondary bat, especially while still making a minimum salary in 2025.

16. Carlos Correa, SS

Season age in 2025: 30
Years of team control: 4
Last year’s rank: No. 13

Correa has a taller task than Buxton and López to have excess value relative to the four years and $128 million he’s owed. He was as fantastic as ever in 2024 when healthy, producing 3.7 bWAR worth $29.6 million despite playing just 86 games, but he’s now 30, with back-to-back seasons wrecked by foot injuries. When the bar is $32 million, his value is closer to neutral.

17. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP

Season age in 2025: 24
Years of team control: 5
Last year’s rank: N/A

Woods Richardson greatly exceeded expectations as a rookie by plugging a hole in the Twins’ rotation with a 4.17 ERA across 134 frames after offseason mechanical tweaks added much-needed velocity. It’s reasonable to assume he has further upside at 24 years old, but a below-average strikeout rate and lack of an out pitch make it tougher to project front-line potential.

18. Edouard Julien, 2B

Season age in 2025: 26
Years of team control: 5
Last year’s rank: No. 4

Julien made huge gains as a rookie in 2023 and gave them all back in 2024, struggling on both sides of the ball for the Twins and spending two months in the minors. His extreme plate discipline often becomes passivity and pitchers exploited his weakness against off-speed stuff, forcing Julien to make adjustments to stay in an increasingly crowded infield mix.

19. Cole Sands, RP

Season age in 2025: 27
Years of team control: 4
Last year’s rank: N/A

Sands had a breakout 2024, going from long man to setup man with a 3.28 ERA and 85-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 71 innings. He’s still got the five-pitch mix of a starter, but Sands’ average fastball has risen from 91.6 to 95.7 mph and an improved cutter has helped handle lefties. He looks like a quality late-inning bullpen option and is under team control through 2028.

20. Trevor Larnach, COF

Season age in 2025: 28
Years of team control: 3
Last year’s rank: N/A

Larnach made swing adjustments intended to put up more of a fight against off-speed pitches and make more contact overall. It worked on both fronts as Larnach hit .259/.338/.434 for a career-high 116 OPS+ in a career-high 112 games. With three years of team control left, emerging at age 27 is better late than never for the college star and 2018 first-round pick.

(Top image: Royce Lewis: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images; Walker Jenkins: Joe Robbins /Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Recent