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Twins mailbag: Pohlad predictions, fixing Royce Lewis, trade scenarios, starting Griffin Jax

18 October 2024Last Update :
Twins mailbag: Pohlad predictions, fixing Royce Lewis, trade scenarios, starting Griffin Jax

With the baseball world focused on the playoffs, the Minnesota Twins have been very busy since their season ended with the thud of a 12-27 tailspin.

In the span of less than three weeks, the Twins parted ways with longtime general manager Thad Levine, fired the entire hitting department of their coaching staff, hired a new but familiar hitting coach away from a playoff team and rolled out a long-awaited local television deal that dramatically increases the availability of their games.

Oh, and in the biggest news of all, the Pohlads announced the team is for sale after 40 years of ownership spanning three generations, leading to a shocked fan base oscillating between excitement and uncertainty.

Before the offseason officially gets underway, let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your mind about the league’s busiest non-playoff team.

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.

What is a realistic timeline fans can expect for new ownership of the Twins to be in place? — Michael P.

I would be surprised if the Twins have new owners before Opening Day and won’t be shocked if the Pohlads are still in charge this time next year.

There’s a lot that goes into selling something for $1.5 billion. And as we’ve seen with the Timberwolves, even when a team is “sold” the process may drag on longer than fans want. Assuming their asking price is close to the public estimates, I do ultimately expect the Pohlads to sell the Twins, but I don’t expect it to be quick.

And the Chicago White Sox also being for sale adds an interesting wrinkle.

How will the Twins being for sale impact next season’s payroll? — Sean M.

On the final day of the season, Twins officials spread the word — albeit off the record, welcoming skepticism — that the payroll wasn’t going to drop further in 2025 after being slashed from $160 million in 2023 to $130 million in 2024.

That was before the announcement of a new local television deal expected to generate less revenue than the previous contract and before the Pohlads put the team up for sale, so it’s natural to wonder if the payroll plans have already changed. However, both things were in the works before the season finale.

After the past 12 months, there’s no amount of poor messaging I’d put past the Twins. But even by their standards, it would be an absolute disaster to insist to media members on Sept. 30 that payroll wouldn’t be cut again, only to go back on their word and lower spending following two announcements everyone in upper management knew were coming.

It’s highly unlikely a potential sale could progress quickly enough that new owners would have a say in the payroll for an offseason that begins in a few weeks, so my assumption is the Twins will be spending around $130 million again. And as I covered two weeks ago, that leaves zero payroll space with the roster already projected to cost $130 million to $135 million as is.

Are you worried you’ve lost your invite to the next Pohlad family birthday party? — Kyle M.

I don’t work for the Twins or the Pohlads. I also like parties a lot less than I like being able to freely express my unfiltered thoughts about the Twins, so that works out well all around.

My constituency is Twins fans, and for over two decades I’ve done my best to inform and entertain them with honest, opinionated stories and podcasts. Anything that gets in the way of that is at odds with my goal, even if it leads to uncomfortable situations.

I’ve never said or written anything about the Pohlads that I didn’t believe and wouldn’t say — or haven’t already said — to their faces. I’m grateful to the readers who subscribe to The Athletic and the listeners who subscribe to Gleeman and The Geek for enabling me to do this job the way I think it should be done, without regard for making friends or carrying water.

Any discussion of transitioning Griffin Jax back to starting? — Seath C.

I’d be surprised, although Griffin Jax would likely be willing to give it a try.

First and foremost, he’s one of the elite relievers in the league and ranked as one of the Twins’ most valuable players this season, making a team-high 72 appearances in a high-leverage setup/closer role with a 2.03 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings. Why mess with that when even a very good starter season of, say, a 3.75 ERA in 150 innings isn’t necessarily more valuable?

Beyond that, Jax hasn’t started a game since 2021, when he got rocked for a 6.37 ERA as a Twins rookie. He barely resembles that pitcher now, with his average fastball jumping from 92.6 mph to 97.1 mph and his slider becoming a devastating weapon, but throwing 15 max-effort pitches every other game is a lot different than starting. As is, he rarely goes more than one inning.

Even if the Twins are convinced Jax could be a good starter, it’s not clear the rotation needs him more than the bullpen. The Twins have a lot of starter depth with Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, whereas the late-inning relief mix would look awfully thin without Jax as the linchpin.

Intriguing idea, but probably not worth the risk under these circumstances.

Obviously the Twins aren’t going to be active on the free-agent market, but on the spectrum from “standing pat” to “flurry of trades,” which direction will their offseason lean? — Patrick K.

I suspect the Twins will be very active in the trade market, in part because ownership’s payroll restrictions leave zero space to make any meaningful additions without also removing salary and in part because the second-half collapse could compel the front office to shake up the team’s core.

That doesn’t necessarily mean blockbuster deals are coming. It could be as simple as creating a sliver of monetary flexibility by trading Paddack and/or Christian Vázquez, who are owed a combined $17.5 million for 2025. But “standing pat” seems unlikely, especially if the front office feels jobs could be on the line coming off a fourth-place season and with new owners looming.

What level of prospect would the Twins have to attach to Vázquez in a trade for another team to take on his entire salary? — Matt W.

Vázquez is owed $10 million for the final season of a three-year, $30 million deal. He remained a good defensive catcher at age 33, but hit .221/.248/.327 in 93 games for a 60 OPS+ that ranked 281st out of 286 major leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances. As the fourth-highest-paid player on a team with a payroll crunch, he’s an obvious trade candidate.

My assumption is the Twins would need to eat roughly half of his salary to facilitate a trade, figuring if Vázquez were a free agent he could land a one-year deal in the $5 million range. If that’s accurate, the Twins might have to attach a good but not great prospect — someone outside of their top 10, yet with decent value — to convince a team to take on the whole $10 million.

There’s similar math to be done with Paddack, who has one season and $7.5 million left on his contract and was hurt for the entire second half. To me, when evaluating them as hypothetical free agents, there would be a higher chance of Paddack getting close to $7.5 million than Vázquez getting around $10 million, but I’ve gotten some pushback on that premise from people around baseball.

What is Alex Kirilloff’s status and future with the Twins? — Patrick D.

I’m not certain Alex Kirilloff is still part of the Twins’ plans. He’s projected to make $1.8 million in 2025 via arbitration, which is cheap enough to keep him around. However, he’s behind fellow left-handed hitters Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach on the corner-outfield depth chart, and last offseason the Twins signed Carlos Santana to avoid playing Kirilloff at first base.

Kirilloff’s back injury halted what was initially a demotion to the minors in June after hitting .201/.270/.384 in 57 games. He was put on the injured list instead and never returned. No one wants to give up on a 26-year-old with his pedigree, but it’s hard to know if Kirilloff’s theoretical upside still exists after four straight seasons ended by back, shoulder and wrist injuries.

He’s a career .248/.309/.412 hitter in 884 plate appearances, producing a 99 OPS+ that’s well below average for a poor-fielding first baseman or corner outfielder, and he’s never played more than 88 games in a season. Can the Twins count on him as a productive regular? If not, he becomes trade bait and could be a non-tender candidate if there’s no league-wide interest.

I’m underwhelmed by the hiring of Matt Borgschulte. I prefer a former major leaguer with a track record of success as a hitter. Is there evidence to suggest hiring a former player as hitting coach is good/bad? — Ryan G.

There’s no correlation between the quality of playing careers and coaching careers, and in fact many of the best hitting coaches, pitching coaches and managers have little or no major-league playing experience. And it’s been that way for decades. Tom Kelly hit .181 in his 49-game MLB career. James Rowson, the hitting coach who got away, never made it past Class A.

Being able to do something well yourself and being able to coach others to do something well require very different skills. It’s the same reason many of the best shooting coaches in the NBA or quarterback coaches in the NFL were not themselves standout players in those leagues, or even players in those leagues at all.

Matt Borgschulte has been a successful and well-regarded hitting coach in college, in the low minors, in the upper minors and in the majors, all by age 33. He was previously the Triple-A St. Paul hitting coach before leaving the Twins organization for a big-league job with the Baltimore Orioles, helping them lead the American League in runs scored over the past two seasons.

I don’t have any strong feelings about how Borgschulte will fare as the Twins’ hitting coach. That’s not something MLB teams seem particularly good at predicting, so outsiders are basically just guessing. But either way, I feel confident in suggesting his own playing career — which includes hitting .302/.403/.559 in three college seasons — won’t be a major factor.

Why didn’t the Twins have Royce Lewis play shortstop when Carlos Correa was injured? — Dave L.

Opinions were mixed about Royce Lewis’ ability to stick at shortstop when he was a prospect, and that was five years and two knee surgeries ago. His once-elite speed and athleticism are now just above average when healthy, and he spent most of this year jogging and limping to avoid further injuries while registering a 28th-percentile sprint speed.

Lewis has also struggled to consistently make strong, accurate throws from third base, committing 10 throwing errors in 97 career starts there, which is another mark against his theoretical ability to handle shortstop. Lewis is a prime example of why more than half of top-100 shortstop prospects fail to become long-term shortstops in the majors.

What is your objective evaluation of Lewis? — Erik A.

I think Lewis is a very good player who had a very bad second half and will need to make adjustments, on and off the field, to avoid similar struggles in the future. I also think he’s one of the Twins’ best players and most valuable long-term pieces, which is why Rocco Baldelli, Correa and others are so focused on what Lewis needs to do to stay on a star track.

He’s done an incredible job of persevering through two major knee surgeries and several other significant injuries. That’s a testament to his work ethic and approach to life, as well as his natural talent, but it doesn’t make Lewis immune to the struggles most young players experience at some point. Remember: He’s played a grand total of 152 games for the Twins.

(Photo of Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

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