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Twins offseason trade block: The 9 players most likely to be shopped

14 November 2024Last Update :
Twins offseason trade block: The 9 players most likely to be shopped

Two aspects of the Minnesota Twins’ situation seemingly point to the path they’re most likely to take this offseason.

1. Missing the playoffs by collapsing down the stretch while many core players were injured and/or ineffective should motivate the front office to make at least some meaningful changes to the roster.

2. Ownership refusing to raise payroll after slashing it from $160 million to $130 million, and a roster that projects to cost over $130 million as is, gives the front office no money to make meaningful changes.

That’s why I wrote last week about 15 low-cost free agents the Twins should target, even though suggesting higher-profile signings would have been more interesting. And that’s why I’m writing today about the Twins’ biggest trade candidates, including some names they might not be motivated to deal under different circumstances.

But if the front office is compelled to make changes and there’s no spending room for free-agent shopping beyond the discount aisle, that leaves trades.

Setting aside prospects, here are the nine players the Twins are most likely to be making or taking trade calls on — and why.

1. Chris Paddack, SP

Chris Paddack will make $7.5 million in the last year of his contract, which is roughly what a back-end starter would get in free agency. But the Twins aren’t positioned to pay market rate when they have younger, cheaper and potentially better options to fill the final rotation spot behind a front four of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson.

Paddack had a handful of impressive starts in his comeback from a second Tommy John surgery, but he was ineffective overall with a 4.99 ERA and 14 homers allowed in 88 1/3 innings before missing the second half with a forearm strain. It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle in their first post-surgery season, but Paddack hasn’t recorded a better-than-average ERA since 2019.

Right now, he’d be blocking David Festa, with Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris next in line. Moving to the bullpen could make sense with Paddack’s injury history and the velocity jump he displayed there in September 2023, but it’s not certain he’d be happy with the switch and paying $7.5 million for an unproven reliever wouldn’t make sense for the Twins anyway.

Considering the lack of payroll room and the in-house rotation alternatives, simply shedding all or even most of the $7.5 million owed to Paddack could be valuable to a front office searching for the money to address other areas of the roster. And if they can get a halfway decent prospect in exchange for Paddack, which seems at least somewhat plausible, that’s a bonus.

2. Christian Vázquez, C

Two seasons into a three-year, $30 million deal, Christian Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 in 195 games for a 62 OPS+ that ranks sixth-worst in Twins history. He’s also great at framing and blocking, and pitchers love working with him. That’s why the Twins split starts evenly despite Ryan Jeffers out-producing Vázquez by 260 points of OPS in 2023 and 157 points in 2024.

Catcher is MLB’s most defense-driven position and the 34-year-old Vázquez has a sterling reputation. However, he failed to control the running game in 2024, throwing out 15.9 percent of steal attempts compared to the 22 percent league average, and Twins pitchers had a better ERA paired with Jeffers in both 2023 and 2024. Vázquez is now a good defender, not a great one.

Good defense and a sub-.600 OPS make Vázquez a backup-caliber catcher getting paid and utilized like a starter, which is especially problematic for a team with no payroll room and a 28-year-old Jeffers under control at cheaper salaries through 2026. Shedding the final year and $10 million on Vázquez’s contract would make all kinds of sense, but is it actually doable?

It’s hard to envision Vàzquez getting $10 million if he were a free agent, so presumably the Twins would need to eat money to trade him for a minimal return. But how much? Similar to the Paddack context, is it worth creating, say, $5 million of spending room to flip from Vázquez to Triple-A prospect Jair Camargo or another inexpensive catcher who could split time with Jeffers?

3. Willi Castro, IF/OF

Willi Castro is a month removed from being voted team MVP and smack in the middle of his prime at 27, but he’s also projected to make $6.2 million via arbitration and is one season from free agency. On a contending team without a payroll crunch, he’d be ideal depth and an essential super-utility player, as he was for the 2024 Twins. But for the 2025 Twins, he’s a trade candidate.

Castro led the Twins with 635 plate appearances last season, and with 1,044 combined over the past two seasons despite never having a set position. When you’re the backup everywhere on a team as injured as the Twins, you become an everyday player. It would be the same story in 2025, except now the front office may view Castro as a $6.2 million luxury item it can’t afford.

Assessing his league-wide market is tricky. Most teams love versatility, but one year of a utility player doesn’t usually hold huge value and he’s unlikely to be seen as a viable starting shortstop or center fielder defensively. That leaves third base, second base and corner outfield, where his .251/.334/.395 hitting line and 103 OPS+ with the Twins is closer to average than standout.

To be clear: There would be no logical reason to trade Castro if not for their payroll situation. He’s high-end depth on a team certain to need plenty of it, $6.2 million is a reasonable salary for a super-utility player and it’s tough to imagine a big return in trade. But when money is tight, clearing $6.2 million and getting something in return for a “bench” player becomes an option.

4. Jhoan Duran, RP

5. Griffin Jax, RP

This front office rarely spends on relievers, instead building bullpens out of converted starters (like Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax), scrap-heap pickups and reclamation projects. The Twins haven’t paid a reliever more than $4 million since 2021, when Taylor Rogers made $6 million for an All-Star season. And they traded Rogers the next spring.

That mindset likely makes the Twins more open than most teams to trading relievers when their value is high, especially if they’re also no longer cheap. Duran and Jax are both high-end relievers with three years of team control and have projected salaries around $3 million for 2025. No one wants to lose either from a bullpen that was shaky in 2024, but for the right return? Maybe.

Unlike the previous names, dealing Duran or Jax would be driven less by money and more by the belief that top relievers can be replaced more easily than good starters or hitters. It would also require a lot of faith in Louie Varland filling a key role and Cole Sands’ breakout 2024 being for real. And even then, trading Duran or Jax wouldn’t make sense unless the Twins got a big offer.

Which reliever has higher trade value? Duran is the bigger name and three years younger, but his velocity dipped in an uneven 2024 campaign. Jax has less closer experience, but he out-pitched Duran last season and his velocity rose for a third straight year. It’s possible the Twins will let the size of the offers determine if Duran or Jax — or neither — is more fungible.

6. Edouard Julien, 2B/1B

7. Jose Miranda, 3B/1B

Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee look set to handle third base and second base, in some configuration, for the foreseeable future, and top-100 prospect Luke Keaschall is almost ready to join the infield mix. That wouldn’t leave infield room for Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda barring a move to first base (or designated hitter), where they admittedly could form a natural platoon.

Julien and Miranda have league-minimum salaries for 2025, so there’s no monetary motivation to trade them. But if other front offices have interest in Julien as a starting second baseman or Miranda as a starting third baseman — both of which would be reasonable for at least a handful of teams — they may be more valuable to the Twins as a means to bring in talent in other areas.

For the infield-rich Twins, the 25-year-old Julien and 26-year-old Miranda would likely need to become far better bats to be worth building around at first base and DH. But most teams don’t have two former top-10 draft picks and top-25 prospects to build around in Lewis and Lee, let alone have them to bookend a 30-year-old All-Star shortstop in Carlos Correa.

There’s no pressure to trade Julien or Miranda for anything short of a good return. They can be used at first base to replace free agent Carlos Santana, or as part of the DH mix, and if necessary Julien could be optioned back to the minors. But value isn’t static, and sending Julien or Miranda to a place where they could be core infield pieces might benefit everyone involved.

8. Pablo López, SP

9. Carlos Correa, SS

Correa is 30 and signed through 2028. López is 28 and signed through 2027. Trading either player would fundamentally alter the nature of the team and confirm every fan’s worst criticisms of the Pohlad family even after it put the franchise up for sale. But when money is tight, speculation is naturally going to swirl around any team’s two highest-paid players.

Correa (four years, $128 million) and López (three years, $65 million) have reasonable remaining contracts, but the deals were signed when the Twins had a $160 million payroll that was expected to rise annually along with the league’s overall spending. Instead, it’s stuck at $130 million two years later, making the same contracts a much tighter fit around which to build.

Big-market vultures have predictably started to circle Correa. However, his contract includes a full no-trade clause, making any trade speculation moot unless he wants to leave Minnesota. López has no such protection, but the same below-market contract that should give him more trade value than Correa also makes him affordable even within a $130 million payroll.

My assumption is the Twins would entertain Correa trade scenarios only if he explicitly asked out and would actively shop López only if he had tons of trade value beyond shedding salary. But unfortunately, ownership slashing payroll after the front office locked star players into long-term deals creates an open season for speculation that can’t just be dismissed as unrealistic.

(Photo of Carlos Correa and Christian Vázquez: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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