The decisions have been made. The analyzing is finally over.
On Monday, the United States roster for the 4 Nations Face-Off will be submitted to the NHL and NHL Players’ Association. On Wednesday, the group of 13 forwards, seven defensemen and three goaltenders will be revealed across the United States and Canada on TNT and Sportsnet at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Bill Guerin, GM of the U.S. team, is comfortable with every decision made. He understands the facts of life, too. Just like he and his staff — which includes John Vanbiesbrouck, Tom Fitzgerald, Chris Drury, Bill Zito, Chris Kelleher and head coach Mike Sullivan — picked and prodded the games of a large pool of American players, fans and media members will soon scrutinize all of theirs.
There will be some big-name snubs. As The Athletic reported in mid-November, the management group had hard debates about players like Tage Thompson, Cole Caufield, John Carlson, future Hall of Famer Patrick Kane and others.
“It’s just not easy, but you have to make the decisions,” Guerin told The Athletic Friday. “It’s not that I don’t care what the outside thinks. It’s just that I understand that it doesn’t matter what I do, people will question, and people will say, ‘Oh, you should have done this, you should have done this.’
“Sorry. This isn’t an All-Star team. Not every great American can make it. It’s about fit and trying to win a short tournament against three other great teams.”
The tournament between the U.S., Canada, Sweden and Finland will take place in Montreal and Boston from Feb. 12-20. It’s essentially an NHL-only Olympics appetizer once the pool of nations can grow.
In choosing the U.S. roster, Guerin has one regret: Why on earth couldn’t each country pick a 14th forward and eighth defenseman?
“I don’t understand their reasoning to deny two more guys per team the opportunity to be part of this when every other international tournament is 25 players,” Guerin said. “It doesn’t make sense to any of the (four nations).”
With the NHL shut down during the tournament, it has been said the rationale from the NHLPA is players don’t want to give up their vacations to go to the tournament and not play. But what concerns the GMs for the four countries is that with only one extra forward and one extra defenseman, if there are injuries, teams are at risk of playing short and putting players in further peril of being hurt or becoming overtaxed before they return to their day jobs once the NHL schedule resumes.
“I just wish we could bring two more players for the experience because that’s how many we’ll bring to the Olympics,” Guerin said.
That’s why Guerin’s next two days before Wednesday’s roster unveilings will be spent calling many of the players who didn’t make the team and explaining the reasoning. It is a bit of damage control because with the rosters announced two and a half months before the tournament, there are bound to be injuries and some of these players will need to push aside their disappointment in case USA Hockey comes calling later on.
“A lot of guys who didn’t make the team are having good years,” Guerin said. “It’s about fit and just trying to put together the best team.”
With hard phone calls left to make to those who, at least for now, didn’t make the team, Guerin wouldn’t go so far as to give The Athletic the U.S. roster to unveil. But here’s the toughest debates management has had over the past few months and the logic we think was used in making the final decisions.
Forwards
Named in June: Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, Jack Eichel
Presumed shoo-ins: Kyle Connor, Jack Hughes, Jake Guentzel, Brady Tkachuk, J.T. Miller
Miller has been on a leave of absence from the Vancouver Canucks since last month, but the United States could still plan to name him to the roster after doing its due diligence. According to multiple sources briefed on the discussions, Guerin has talked to Miller, Miller’s agent Brian Bartlett and Canucks GM Patrik Allvin and believes Miller wants to play in the tournament and will be back playing in the NHL well before then.
This leaves five other players.
Matt Boldy, the Minnesota Wild’s rising star right wing, has almost surely played himself onto the team. He led the World Championship in scoring with Wild coach John Hynes, one of Sullivan’s assistants for the 4 Nations, acting as head coach. He’s a point-per-game player this season for Minnesota, a high-volume shooter, dynamic on the power play and can play left or right wing.
But now things get interesting.
Let’s just say the top three lines look something like:
Connor-Matthews-M. Tkachuk
Guentzel-Eichel-Boldy
B. Tkachuk-J. Hughes-Miller
That leaves four other spots.
Some candidates: Kane, Caufield, Thompson, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck, Jason Robertson, Brock Nelson, Clayton Keller, Troy Terry, Brock Boeser and a whole horde of others
We just can’t see the United States tapping on Kane. Roster spots are just too precious.
Caufield isn’t a fourth-liner. And even though he leads all Americans with 14 goals, the United States is stacked with power-play forwards and he just seems too much like Hughes and Boldy. It feels like he’ll be on the outside looking in.
For the fourth line, we think Dylan Larkin gets a spot. On the power play, he’s one of the best bumpers in the NHL. And for what should be a fast-paced tournament, the Red Wings captain flies. He can play left wing, center and right wing. He can kill penalties. He’s just so versatile that it would be hard to leave him off.
That leaves three more spots.
This is where the critics will likely have a field day because there are great players there is simply no room for.
If we had to guess, guys like Robertson, Keller, Terry and Boeser are likely boxed out, using the same rationale they used for Caufield. If so, it comes down to Thompson, Kreider, Trocheck and Nelson.
As Guerin told The Athletic in early November, the coaches want flexibility and versatility; guys to fit specific roles. Not everybody can be in the top six. Not everybody can be on the power play. They need guys to win big draws, kill penalties and play physically when the games get tight.
Nelson, the New York Islanders veteran, is a chameleon who can play anywhere. He can play up your lineup, down your lineup, take big draws, play wing or center, kill penalties or protect leads late in games. That flexibility feels too appealing to leave off.
So now it comes down to Thompson, Kreider and Trocheck.
From a versatility standpoint, Kreider and Trocheck probably have the edge. But from a “who’s playing best” standpoint, the Buffalo Sabres’ Thompson, by far, has the edge over Kreider and Trocheck on a slipping New York Rangers team.
Kreider has nine goals and zero assists in 20 games. Bizarre, but he has played mostly with Mika Zibanejad, who is struggling dramatically and last week was attempting just 10.95 shots per 60 minutes, the lowest volume of his career. Trocheck’s game also hasn’t been nearly as stable as it was in last year’s playoffs when he was the Rangers’ Mr. Everything.
But both players could fill fourth-line roles, kill penalties, block shots and have a body of work USA Hockey likely covets.
We wonder if that squeezes Thompson out. He’s a top-six guy who’s not better than Matthews, Eichel or Hughes, who’s playing unreal right now. Plus he’s not great on draws. So you do wonder if he has been boxed out when you look at the number of power-play guys and top-six players who can play offensive roles.
We’ll see. It’ll be hard to keep him off the team.
He’s gigantic with a cannon of a shot. If he doesn’t make the roster, he’s the one player you bet Guerin will need to smooth things over with because he’d be the perfect guy to come out of the bullpen if Miller has to bow out, if Matthews isn’t healthy or if there’s another injury by the Feb. 12 tournament opener.
Defensemen
Named in June: Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox, Charlie McAvoy
Presumed shoo-in: Jaccob Slavin (six months ago, there was talk of him being one of the six Americans selected to the original roster)
Next up, Brock Faber.
He didn’t play in the World Championship after playing the final two months of last season with broken ribs, but he has had a strong first quarter to this season and plays the right side. He is a shutdown blueliner, is a world-class skater, can join the rush, has a heavy shot and can kill penalties — although that area of his game must continue to get better.
That leaves only two other spots.
Some candidates: Carlson, Zach Werenski, Jake Sanderson, Noah Hanifin, Seth Jones, Ryan McDonagh, Brett Pesce
Our gut?
Werenski has played himself onto the team. In fact, the Columbus Blue Jackets veteran may be playing better than any other American defenseman currently. He can play in all situations and if something happens to Hughes or Fox, Werenski could easily slide onto the power play.
As good as Carlson has been for the Washington Capitals this season with 19 points, we think he’s squeezed out. Assuming Sullivan goes with four forwards on each of his power-play units, the blue-line spots go to Hughes and Fox. Carlson is a power-play guy, and when it comes to pace of play and ability to defend, there are better choices.
That means the last spot likely comes down to Sanderson, Hanifin, Jones, McDonagh and Pesce.
Over the last few weeks, it was clear U.S. staff was scouting a lot of Vegas and Ottawa. Will they go with Hanifin for the experience or Sanderson, a young stud who may have an inside track in a year for that eighth blue-line spot at the Olympics?
A case could be made for both, but because Sanderson has been so up and down of late, perhaps Hanifin makes the most sense.
Regardless, if there’s an injury at left D before the tournament, whoever doesn’t make it between Hanifin or Sanderson could come out of the bullpen. If it’s a right D, there’s Jones, Pesce and, quite frankly, Neal Pionk, who has been outstanding for Winnipeg.
Goalies
Shoo-ins: Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman
Hellebuyck “hellebuyck’ed” the Wild last week by stealing a victory in Minnesota. After the game, Guerin met up with Hellebuyck quickly.
Asked what he told him, Guerin said, laughing, “I’m tired of all you guys trying out (for 4-Nations) against us.”
Hellebuyck and Oettinger are guaranteed. While there have been some questions about whether they’d put Anthony Stolarz on the team, with Thatcher Demko hurt and Swayman off to a tough start to the season, it’s hard to imagine they’d do that.
Swayman is an Olympic hopeful. Stolarz is not. And if something happened to Hellebuyck or Oettinger, would you count on Stolarz over Swayman to win one game?
On paper, regardless of the so-called snubs, the Americans should have a team well-built to win this tournament.
But as Guerin said, “I don’t get too excited about things on paper. Look, we’re gonna do the best job we can, put together the best team we can, but now we have to go play the games. That’s the only way to prove what you’ve done is right is to go out and play the games. That’s the only measure.
“It’s not writers or fans. Everybody’s entitled to their opinion. I’m totally fine with that. That’s great. But in order for us to prove it, we actually have to go out and play the games and prove that we’re right and capable of winning.”
(Top photos of Matt Boldy and Zach Werenski: Patrick McDermott and Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
