Vikings-Lions preview, predictions: Brian Flores' defense vs. Ben Johnson's offense

This weekend’s NFL schedule is jam-packed with intriguing matchups.

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are facing off in a Super Bowl rematch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are hosting the Baltimore Ravens on “Sunday Night Football.” Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is returning to New York to play the Giants. The compelling storylines go on.

Kicking all of this off is arguably the best game in the NFL’s best division. The Minnesota Vikings host the Detroit Lions, a matchup that might feature the best defense (Vikings) versus the best offense (Lions). As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Jared Goff. How comfortable will he look against Brian Flores’ defense? He has played phenomenally in the last few weeks, completing more than 80 percent of his passes and throwing for more than 800 yards. But he has only been pressured on 14 snaps during this span. By comparison, when the Lions lost to the Bucs in Week 2, Goff was pressured on 18 snaps in that game alone. One of the most interesting Goff statistics is this one: Among 31 qualified quarterbacks, Goff ranks No. 2 in the NFL in EPA when he gets rid of the ball in fewer than 2.5 seconds. Conversely, when he holds the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, he ranks 30th ahead of only Will Levis. One feather in Goff’s cap is the fact that Detroit’s offensive line is arguably the best in the NFL. The Lions have allowed the third-fewest pressures in the NFL. But Flores’ defense has levers it can pull to force the ball out quickly. How Goff responds if that happens is going to be fascinating.

Krawczynski: Stephon Gilmore, again. I put this same answer down for the Jets game, but I feel like he will be even more important this week against Detroit’s versatile and explosive offense. What a pro. I wondered about his age and I wondered about him bouncing from team to team so much in the last five years. But he’s been a perfect fit in Minnesota and has given them exactly what they need at a position without much depth. And from a personality standpoint, Gilmore is the rare quiet cornerback. Not much trash talk. Not a lot of bravado. He just goes out there and does his thing. Will the Lions test him or stay away from him? There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of back-down from Dan Campbell, so I’m expecting a toe-to-toe battle on the perimeter between Gilmore and the Lions’ talented receiver corps.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: The Lions’ rushing attack. Detroit has the highest rushing success rate in the NFL this season. Its running back tandem, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, offer size, speed, strength, explosion and pass-catching ability. Additionally, their run game is well-schemed by offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and versatile thanks to the mobility of offensive linemen like Penei Sewell. The better Detroit runs the ball, the more likely the Lions will find themselves in third-and-short situations. There aren’t many teams that have been more effective in these situations. The Vikings have the ingredients to prevent this concern from wrecking the game. Through five games, Minnesota has only allowed 3.5 yards per carry, which is third-best in the NFL.

Krawczynski: Aaron Jones’ health. He was limited in practice on Thursday, an improvement from sitting out on Wednesday. He is SO important to what the Vikings do offensively. They looked a little lost without him in London when he went out. Hamstrings are tricky injuries, and the Vikings have to be careful with how they handle this. Having Jones on the field would be a huge boost in this showdown, but there are still 11 games to play after this. If he’s not on the field, the Vikings will be more one-dimensional and have a tougher time against the Lions defense. With him in the backfield, they are so much more versatile.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Vikings’ receivers against the Lions’ corners. Since Kevin O’Connell became the Vikings’ head coach, Minnesota is averaging 344 yards per game passing against Detroit. Last year alone, superstar receiver Justin Jefferson amassed 18 catches for 333 yards against the Lions. Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has tried everything. The Lions have leaned into 2-Man, tried Cover 1 and attempted combo coverage. They have also consistently added to their secondary. Last year, they snagged Cam Sutton. This year, they acquired Carlton Davis from the Bucs and drafted cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. Davis is questionable with a quad injury, potentially placing the Lions in a precarious position — but they might be in one anyway against Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor.

Krawczynski: O’Connell vs. Johnson. Yes, I know O’Connell will technically be matching up against Glenn. But Johnson is considered a head-coach-in-waiting and one of the most creative, imaginative play callers in the league. O’Connell belongs in that conversation as well. He likes to dial up some exotic plays in big spots, and matching up against Johnson could offer temptation to go play for play with him. Will we get a halfback pass or a flea-flicker on third-and-2? Maybe that’s a good thing, especially with the Vikings running game facing injury questions. O’Connell just has to be careful not to go too wild with it and put his defense in difficult positions.

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: Can the Vikings become the King of the NFC North? A wild sentence to type, but a fair one considering what’s possible. If the Vikings win this weekend, they’ll have distanced themselves from arguably their two most formidable division foes. They’ll have also crept a half-game away from their over/under before the season. More than two-thirds of the season will remain regardless of the result, and momentum rises and falls like roller coasters in this league. But stamping the first third of the season with a home victory against another Super Bowl contender would further validate what’s possible and maybe even fuel more of a fire with weeks before the trade deadline.

Krawczynski: What is going on with Sam Darnold? The quarterback has started to show some shakiness over the previous two games. The precision wasn’t there like it was earlier in the season, which has led to turnovers and scuttled drives. Was that just a little blip? Or was he starting to regress to the mistake-prone player he was earlier in his career? The bye came at a great time for Darnold. He has been a little banged up, and maybe he needed a little bit of time to just clear his head and recalibrate. If he comes out of the bye slingin’ it like he did earlier in the season, the Vikings will be just fine. But if he doesn’t have his safety blanket in Jones and starts to look more reckless than daring, that’s a big problem for the Vikings.

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

	Vikings	Lions
Offensive turnovers	25th	4th
Defensive turnovers	2nd	7th
Offensive explosiveness	8th	2nd
Defensive explosiveness	7th	20th
Offensive efficiency	14th	1st
Defensive efficiency	4th	21st

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 27, Lions 24. This is a pick based on Goff feeling a level of stress that he has not since Tampa Bay. Missing Aidan Hutchinson contributed to this selection, but I also wonder how Gibbs and Montgomery — two subpar backs in protection — hold up against the Vikings’ looks. Unsurprisingly, I expect O’Connell to air it out, and I think the offense will look much more crisp than it did in London.

Krawczynski: Vikings 28, Lions 27. I think this is going to be one heck of a game. They may very well be the two best teams in the NFC. I love the way the Lions are playing lately and I love the Vikings’ chances with this coaching staff, which has been among the very best in the league this season, having some extra time to prepare for the matchup. Can’t wait.